Ok, sorry guys.
I noticed a big problem. You can’t even attatch image files. The gives me reason enough not to do it. We need to be able to utilize that. So, as of this point, I am abandoning that idea… for now.
Ok… gone… deleted.
Back to the subject!
Akram,
Thanks for that post up there. I enjoy reading everyones views on things. Especially stuff that effects the FOREX.
Your positions look pretty good! Is that with the new system or the old system?
I’m getting ready to take my first position with the new system. Gonna give that a go for a few trades to get a feel for it.
Ah, I just noticed you had put “based on old/new system” on there. So you have 2 with the old and 1 with the new I see.
Okay, I’m having major platform issues here. I’m comparing MT4 to OANDA and the charts are different. I’m attaching the images to compare. They are the daily charts of USD/CHF.
You can see differences on that charts… but if you look at the current candlestick you will notice on Oanda’s chart, the candlestick is closing above EMA50 and if you look at MT4 chart, it is closing below and no where near the EMA50. I’m not understanding why its so different. These are both on the daily charts.
I mean, I guess no matter what platform you use, the system will still work… but it just strikes me as very odd how different they are.
Rob,
It happenes before with the PSAR that i have with my broker that i do find a vailed entry and with Dale’s Delta broker it was there this entry so it could be different with brokers but if u have a vailed entry with one broker then stick to the rule take the postions.
Regards,
Akram
bye the way Rob,
how far is Montreal than u r??
Regards,
Akram
Hey Akram
Are you refering to Montreal, Canada? If thats the case, it is really far away from me, about 2,600 miles (~4100 kilometres) northeast from me.
Why do you ask?
Robstyle:
O wonder what have we here
O brave new world that hath such people in it
Thanks for the chart info. Will try in a little while.
BTW my rambling about Columbus was stimulated by something I saw somewhere in forexsphere about today being Columbus Day, a bank holiday,and so trading would be slow.
Well give me the bank holidays! With the help of you all on this thread, today was probably my best day in forex trading. Mind you I did not post the losing positions that I had closed when I posted my report earlier. Let’s just say I’ve made a net gain today, at least so far. And I plan to be more cautious than before (says every trader before they get emotional).
Glendon
PS I’m going to copy and paste your instructions on charting in my blog forexology as well as place it in a link list if I can. However, I don’t believe it’s ethical for me to use my blog as the information guide for the systems here, so I will continue to ask Dale to lead out in a site where we can view the data as organised topics.
Feeling kinda bummed out. I can’t seem to make anything or even get into any trades with any system. It figures the week I decide I’m going to go live, this starts to happen and my morale drops.
For instance, USD/CHF closed above the EMA today, so I got in the trade to go long. Now I’m losing out… maybe I’m just being impatient and I should just go away and see what happens tomorrow.
Could really use a good “profit” gain now to boost my spirits and make me excited again to get into this. When I first started using the first system we had going on, I was making a lot of good demo profit and I was itching to go live. Then all of a sudden I couldn’t even get into any trades. Now I’m not making a damn thing and am losing out using either system.
Such is the way the thing works, I suppose. Ya win some, ya lose some.
Think long term.
Hi folks,
Sorry you may have thought that I’d ‘abandoned’ you again - I hadn’t - we had some MAJOR storms here yesterday and I think that it took out some or the other DNS Server somewhere - and - funny enough - I was trying to connect with my mobile phone a couple of minutes ago (couldn’t stay away from the thread any longer) and - hey presto - my ADSL was back!!!
And - here is the ‘cherry on the top’ - the ONLY place I could connect to in the whole universe - even while this was all going down - was Delta Stock!!! It you’re interested - and know (or want to know) a bit about computer networking - the reason that I could still connect to Delta is because you connect DIRECTLY to Delta i.e. you go directly to their servers IP address (this is true of MOST MT4 brokers as well by the way). If you’re trading with a broker where your access to them depends on your being able to browse the Internet (in other words their IP address has to be ‘looked up’ on a DNS Server that may be down) then you’re in trouble - AND - this brings me to a good AND IMPORTANT point - TRADE WITH STOPS (even if you have to make them ‘REAL BIG’ so as not to get ‘whipsawed’ out unecessarily - but it’ll at least save your account - and you’ll live to fight another day).
Thanks for ALL the posts (now I know how ‘Just Joan’ felt the other day - unable to read or post for a day - and - OH MAN)!!!
For what it’s worth - unless the babypips Administrators start to feel ‘uneasy’ about the ‘personal’ posts - I don’t see any reason (and to honest would not like to) move this thread anywhere else. Aside from us all trying to make some money here - we’re all human - and - I can tell you that getting to grips with the ‘psychology of trading’ is probably more important than any ‘system’ anyone can come up with. I’ve seen 1000 page books with 200 pages dedicated to ‘system’ and 800 pages dedicated to ‘trading psychology’ (OK - that’s not STRICTLY true - I could NEVER read a 1000 page book - I don’t have the concentration span)!!! Everyone is sharing - not only their ideas here - but a little bit of themselves as well - and I think it’s great. It really does make this thread ‘different’ and we have formed a small community here and I don’t see that as a problem. I would say - as long as we don’t start ‘arguments’ of a personal nature and cause ‘trouble’ with each other and start ‘slating’ someone elses beliefs - we’re OK (I’ll just bet that there are some people on this thread that absolutley HATE my music but have not said anything - which would be OK if they did - in a nice way - but NEVER say anything bad about Tarja)!!! Get the picture!!!
NOW:
This ‘system’ of ours:
MAYBE - I was just a ‘tad’ hasty on saying that this thing would work on ANY timeframe ANY direction.
Why do I say this?
Simple.
I forgot that when the ‘people in the know’ (like the ‘Analysts’ on TV and ‘da big boyz’) look at an instrument to see what’s happening - it always the DAILY CLOSE and where the DAILY CLOSE is in relation to the EMA’s or SMA’s. If you read or subsribe to any of the newsletters that I posted links to earlier on in the thread you’ll notice statements like 'In order for Gold to go to $XXX if NEEDS to close above XXX otherwise if it closes below XXX then it’s probably going to correct to XXX before going to XXX). Those ‘gurus’ are looking at the CLOSING DAILY PRICE on a FRIDAY. In other words ‘da big boyz’ are NOT going to make ANY trading decisions based on what may be happening on the 1 Hour or 4 Hour timerframe. I don’t know - they MAY trade those timeframes - BUT - I’LL GUARANTEE that they don’t trade contrary to whatever is happening of the daily timeframe. Does that make sense??? I’m seeing it now: yes Gold and Silver pretty much broke even for me yesterday - so I closed the positions (promising myself of course that I would NEVER EVER touch Gold again). Then - of course - this morning - Gold had closed below the 50 EMA on the 4 Hour - so - I went short - and - at the moment - it’s climbing up again!!! Of course!!! How could I even think that it would go in any other direction other than the total opposite to any position that I opened!!! The ‘long and short’ of it is this: If the CLOSING PRICE YESTERDAY is still above the 50 EMA (or SMA) then it would be ‘dumb’ to take short trades on ANY OTHER SHORTER TIMEFRAME BECAUSE one could only be sure that Gold (for example) is on it’s way down IF the price has CLOSED BELOW the 50 EMA the previous day. John F. Carter explains things in a far more ‘eloquent’ way than me but, basically, you are trying to find the path of least resistance when taking a trade. True - if Gold (again - for example) is still above (closing above) the 50 EMA but you’re getting a signal to go short of the 4 Hour timeframe - it does not mean that you’re NOT going to make some profits on the 4 Hour timeframe - but the likelihood of Gold continuing up because it closed yesterday above the 50 EMA (path of least resistance) is BETTER than the likelihood of Gold going down (path of most resistance). We want to be in those ‘easy’ trades - not those ‘forced’ ‘fly by the seat of our pants and hope for the best trades’. Make sense??? Thoughts??? Input???
Following on from the above - every single trade that I took this morning - on the 4 Hour - that was contrary to where the instruments price closed yesterday on the Daily - is in a loss right now - whereas - every single trade that I took this morning on the 4 Hour which was NOT contrary to where the price closed yesterday on the Daily - is in profit. Again - it does not mean that the trades that were taken on the 4 Hour contrary to yesterdays Daily closing price will not turn into a profit - but the likelihood of this happening is not as great as the likelihood of the trades that were NOT taken contrary to yesterdays Daily closing price making a profit.
Whew!!! Those two paragraphs have ALREADY ‘taken it out of me’ and it’s only 09h27 here in the morning!!!
Anyway - keep posting (hopefully I won’t have any more ‘snags’ to deal with here today).
Regards,
Dale.
Hi,
Anybody planning to open EUR/JPY short? Looks good currently according to the old system rules. I still trade with the old system and loving it much, at the moment 3 positions open with +200 pips since yesturday, I think I will go for EUR/JPY short, what do you think?
Thanx,
Regards,
-t-
Good Morning people.
Whew!! I can’t seem to wrap my mind around the new system. Maybe I’m a tad slow today. As for my 4 open positions based on our old rules, currently they’re all in the green.
Long USD/DKK @ +146 pips
Long GBP/CHF @ +244 pips
Short EUR/USD @ +59 pips
Short EUR/GBP @ +52 pips
I think the main thing with our old rules or in fact any rules, is that we [B]SHOULD NOT OVERTRADE [/B]our accounts. [B]Strict money management [/B]rules are the only thing that will save us from almost having heart failure when trades don’t go our way as quickly as we’d like. I mean, it’s a lot easier to be patient when your account is nowhere close to being margin called.
On my platform, it’s not there yet but I should be able to take that trade in a couple of days.
Hey Dale I been out awhile which post has the new system rules in it?
OK - well - you know - ‘forever analysing’!!!
I’ve been going over some more charts (would you believe) AND I want to know what you all think about combining the ‘old’ system with the ‘new’ system???
Quite a ‘mind f**k’ hey???
Sorry - I know it would appear that I am ‘chopping and changing’ all of the time but all I’m trying to do is ENSURE that we take ONLY good trades and very little or NO bad ones AND I’m also trying to ENSURE that we don’t have to sit around waiting for ‘days on end’ holding on to a position that, after a lengthy period of time, either breaks even or turns into a loss!!!
Let’s ‘tackle’ this from a different ‘angle’:
What would be ‘the ideal trade’ based on our ‘old’ system?
(I’m going to use a short trade as an example for the ‘analysis’ that follows).
The ideal trade:
Daily chart
Parabolic SAR entry signal to go short
MACD has crossed
RSI above 70
Stochastics above 80
ADX above 25
What would be ‘the ideal trade’ based on our ‘new’ system?
The ideal trade:
Daily chart
Parabolic SAR entry signal to go short
Price closed yesterday below to 50 EMA
Somewhere between these two systems lies ‘The Holy Grail’ I reckon.
What are the shortcomings of our ‘old’ system?
Well - for one thing - the fact that Parabolic SAR is giving you an entry signal is no GUARANTEE that a downtrend has started - all it’s telling you is that the price has closed lower than the preceding one or two candlesticks or bars for the last one or two days.
MACD - well - as we ALL know - it can just as easily turn back up and ‘bite us in the tail’ - still not much of a GUARANTEE.
RSI - well - all it’s telling you really is that AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE - the price WILL drop - not WHEN it will drop - and it could stay above 70 for a millenium if the price keeps going up.
Stochastics - same as RSI really - all it’s telling you again is that AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE the price WILL drop - again - not WHEN it will drop - and it could also stay above 80 for a millenium if the price keeps going up.
ADX - probably the most reliable of them all if you want my opinion - and all it’s telling you is whether or not the pair has directional movement or is range bound.
So:
Add the 50 EMA from our ‘new’ system to the ‘old’ system and what do you get?
I reckon a pretty ‘solid’ system!!!
What does it ‘buy’ us?
Well - if the price on yesterdays Daily closed below the 50 EMA - or is CLOSING on a daily basis below the 50 EMA - then you can be (almost 100%) sure that a downtrend has in fact started AND seeing that EVERY SINGLE INDICATOR that we are using is a TREND FOLLOWING INDICATOR does it not stand to reason that this gives a certain amount of ‘backbone’ to the system and the other indicators???
For those instruments that have an ADX value of less than 20 - then you use the Break Out Point Calculator - and - once a BOP has been ‘hit’ - you follow the above ‘combined’ rules.
I’ll give you a very ‘neat’ example of what I’m talking about at the moment:
AUD/CAD (which for ME is very risky given the fact that they are BOTH ‘commdolls’):
The price has been ‘hovering’ above the 50 EMA for the past six or seven days.
Parabolic SAR was ‘penetrated’ sometime today already.
The price has been ‘hovering’ above the 50 EMA for the past six or seven days.
MACD ‘looks like’ it’s ready to cross but it’s by no means there yet.
RSI is between 50 and 70 so it’s in a tradeable range.
Stochastics are above 80 (or close to 80).
ADX has a value of 12 which means that the range is ‘very’ range bound.
My entry:
Using the Break Out Point Calculator (which I very kindly wrote for all of you and posted and which I see is not getting much attention) I have calculated my HBOP for today to be 0.8925 and my LBOP for today to be 0.8714.
If either of these BOP’s are hit (which I reckon will be the LBOP) then see what the implications tomorrow will be:
The price will close below the 50 EMA tonight (tomorrow)
A Parabolic SAR entry signal to go short will be given tonight (tomorrow)
MACD will have crossed down tonight (tomorrow)
RSI will start turning down to eventually cross the 50 mark or line
Stochastics will cross the 80 mark or line and start moving down
ADX will start to increase in value indicating that the pair is no longer range bound but trending (down)
How can you go wrong???
As a ‘sign of good faith’ I have placed orders based on the above for 1 300 000 units (so let’s hope I’m right) (and YES ‘Just Joan’ - your ARE right about OVERTRADING - I just CHOSE not to take you advice for this one)!!!
droesparky:
The ‘new’ rules cannot be more than 50 or 60 pages back (only kidding). They were posted on Sunday so just go back a day or two.
Regards,
Dale.
hi dale!
i can’t see daily psar penetrated today on aud/cad…
is my chart too poor?
Don’t make your problems mine!!!
Only kidding.
I wouldn’t worry about it - remember - ‘the jury is still out’ on just how ‘valid’ my Delta ‘SAR’ is. Yours could very well be different but it does not mean it’s wrong.
The more I think about it - don’t sell my Breakout Point Calculator short (excuse the bad pun). On range bound pairs it keeps you out of a trade UNTIL there IS in fact a ‘valid’ trade based on our rules.
Just another thought while I’m going through my daily worksheet.
Regards,
Dale.
Hi, can anyone tell me if GBP/USD is a trade at the moment as its has just penetrated psar on my chart.
Yes Montreal Canada, coz i am moving there soon
Akram
Well , what can I say. Seems that I have a lot to learn