CHF/JPY short signal just now.
I’m in for a mini-lot.
Dale
Sounds brilliant. Does backtesting confirm.
Glendon
‘Backtest’??? ‘Backtesting’??? What’s that??? Why???
Kidding around!!!
The only ‘backtesting’ I can do is ‘scour’ the charts for ‘hours and hours on end’ and the results ‘appear’ to be ‘better’ than before.
On a serious note:
I’ve tried running backtest after backtest on MT4 (which I don’t use at the moment) and I can NEVER get ANYTHING to come out of the thing.
Regards,
Dale.
Bah…
I can’t seem to get into any trades. Haven’t felt much like sittin in front of the computer all day though. Nasty headache. Think I’ve been thinkin about this stuff for too long. Now my head is fighting me.
Suppose sleep is the better answer. Tomorrow will be a better day.
Good Morning All.
Dale, Like Johto said, you really have got balls of steel. :eek: When do you even sleep?
How’s that trade going anyways? As for me, both my USD have gone from green to firmly red. I’m just gonna let them run though until they either turn to profit or I get stopped out.
Thanks for the compliments (I think)!!!
Well - you won’t believe me if I tell you this - but - since about 07h30 this morning and now (which is 10h53) - I have MADE almost $2500 USD (even after getting stopped out last night for $1K)!!!
It’s exciting I’ll tell you - but it’s taking YEARS off my life!!!
To be honest - it’s out of sheer desperation (I have to make a payment of the equivalent of about $3000 USD on my one car by Monday)!!!
I DO NOT ADVOCATE THIS EITHER!!! I’m using about 40% of my capital on a single trade!!!
Then again - who knows - MAYBE this DOES work!!!
I’ll attached a chart for those of you who are interested.
Basically - all I’ve done is this:
1 Pair i.e. GBP/JPY (not 44 pairs)!!!
5 Minute Chart
Initial entry is when the price has CLOSED ABOVE BOTH the 50 EMA AND the 50 SMA AND Parabolic SAR is in an uptrend (I’m obviously looking for long trades).
Before doing any of this I made SURE that the pair was in an uptrend i.e. the price was closing above the 50 EMA AND THE 50 SMA AND PARABOLIC SAR was indicating an uptrend on ALL timeframes i.e. Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4 Hour, and 30 Minutes.
I’m ONLY taking long positions on the 5 Minute Chart (for the reasons mentioned above)
After the inital entry I use EITHER the 50 EMA or the 50 SMA (whichever is furtherest from the current price) for my stop and reverse point (if hit) and then, as soon as Parabolic SAR is ABOVE both of these lines, I revert to using Parabolic SAR for stops - just like we have all learned to do.
Once stopped out I take profit (by this time Parabolic SAR is indicating a reversal which I do NOT take) and then wait for Parabolic SAR to indicate a long trade again.
So far - so good - but my nerves are shot to hell!!!
I don’t know how far this pair has got to go up - but ‘heres hoping’ - there is another trade coming right now!!!
I’ll post again just now!!!
Regards,
Dale.
OK - well - there seems to be a ‘lull’ in the ‘action’ - and - to be honest - I’m running out of ‘guts’!!! I mean - how far can this pair go???
Oh - by the way - I forgot to mention - I also only take the trade once MACD has crossed on the 5 Minute Chart (I checked that MACD had crossed on ALL of the other timeframes as described in my previous post). The MACD cross on the 5 Minute does not seem to mean too much though i.e. ‘whipsaws’.
Look - I don’t know - maybe it IS a valid way of trading. I mean - it’s easy for me to ask this question now I suppose.
One thing that did ‘get me going’ with this was the fact that when I started trading - I made about $3000 USD in 24 hours on my first demo account - and ever since then I’ve been asking myself the question: ‘How did you do that? What’s changed?’. I remember back then that all I did was ‘scalp’ the USD/ZAR (my beloved Rand). Basically - when the price dropped - I went long - and when the price went up - I took profit and went short - and just kept repeating that process for a couple of hours. Simple. The reason that this did not work after I started trading live is because the broker (at that time) would not execute orders immediately i.e. you waited AGES for the order (market order) to be executed - and then had the same problem when you wanted to take profit and close the position and stop and reverse. Needless to say this ‘broker action’ helped me wipe out my first $500 live account in about 30 minutes (I think the next one took about an hour to wipe out). Things are different now i.e. I have a broker who does NOT hold onto orders and executes them at the correct price immediately so maybe I’ll have another look at my ‘ZAR Scalping Technique’. Never thought about it until now!!!
I’m back in again by the way - could not / cannot help myself!!! GOT TO TRY AND COVER GOLD NOW - ONCE AND FOR ALL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
OK - well - we were at 240 just now - and I have a ‘sneaky’ suspicion that this is some or the other ‘key’ resistance level. Either that or there were a lot of sell stop (or sell limit) orders at 240 and that’s ‘halted’ the rally. Put it this way - either a whole lot of people are now going to lose money because their orders have been executed and will now get stopped out if the price goes higher - or - my profits are going to be reduced!!!
I’ll tell you something though - it’s very interesting to see the ‘action’ on this shorter timeframe. The pair goes up, consolidates, retracts, consolidates (and it’s at about this point that it takes everything you have to not ‘pull the plug and run’), and then continues up (and hopefully will continue in this fashion until I’m satisfied - which will be never)!!!
Nope - while I type - we’re STILL on the way up - in profit AGAIN BABY!!!
Go to go!!!
Regards,
Dale.
I’ll tell you another thing - this is restoring my faith in Parabolic SAR BIG TIME!!!
By the way - EUR/RON - YES - I still have this ‘fuc*in’ position open from the other day - but anyway - it’s NEARLY at break even - can you believe that - after all this time!!!
If it turns to profit today - man - what can I say!!! If it turns to profit I WILL NOT TAKE PROFIT but see how well our ‘total’ system works with it i.e. it’s pretty close to the EMA’s and SMA’s now and - if my ‘logic’ is working correctly - once it closes below these two MA’s - well then ‘a killing will be made’!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Still going (now at ALMOST another $1K profit)!!!
Sorry - make that $1.2!!!
I’ll tell you why this now becomes such a ‘mind fu*k’:
I opened a position on USD/JPY on MONDAY (Sunday night I think) and that position is NOW showing a profit of $340 or thereabouts. That’s three days to make $340 AND there is always the possibility that if the position reverses on you you’ll end up breaking even a couple of days later. I just can’t see that this is the way it’s supposed to work out.
I SURE hope this is not ‘beginners scalping luck’!!! Actually - is this ‘scalping’ - I mean - I’m following our system - just on a much shorter timeframe - AND - I’m checking that ALL our rules ‘new’ and ‘old’ are in place on ALL of the longer timeframes. Is that ‘scalping’??? Don’t quite know.
Regards,
Dale.
Have ANY of you seen Gold by the way?
I’d like to know where it thinks it’s going!!!
Dale.
‘Sh*t’!!!
Just had a power failure - TP at $800 (manual close).
Got to go!!! UPS about to run out!!!
Bye.
Dale.
Now connected via mobile phone and notebook. (Backup System Testing)!!!
‘Can’t keep a good man down (away)’!!!
There’s a good lesson to be learned here by the way - ESPECIALLY - if you’re going to ‘go for broke’ and trade the short timeframes with only ‘mental stops’!!!
Anyway - got to go to keep the batteries charged in case of emergency!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Gold and silver Dale,
This trade of silver was from our old rule and it is almost killing me
While the one i took begining of this week based on the new rule is showing profit 150 pips
I don’t know where the hell they will go (Silver-Gold) but i am sure the way they will go will be a disater for me!!
Akram
Power failure Dale? That’s a tad suprising. Now if it were over here then that would be the norm.
Anyway, I’m getting tired of looking at my losing positions but I just shut down my platform so I wouldn’t be tempted to just close them right now and take the loss.:o
I’M BACK - WITH A VENGEANCE!!!
Well - not really - the power just come back on.
‘Just Joan’ - I KNOW what you’re talking about - I’ve done business in Botswana and Malawi and it’s also the norm over there. We don’t USUALLY have problems but they (Eskom) are doing some sort of ‘load sharing’ whatever that may be and - of course - it’s just done!!! No warning - no nothing (I had to eat cold food last night)!!! Anyway - it’ll soon be over (I hope)!!!
Moral of the story: make sure that all your workstations run on uninterruptible power supplies (including things like ADSL modems, network hubs, etc. etc. etc.) (what makes you think I used to be in the computer business) AND make sure that if all else fails you have a notebook and a mobile phone or some other means of wireless communication between you and your broker (Delta has WAP but my other brokers do not) AND make SURE that you keep your trading platforms updated on your notebook as well (I had not used mine in a while so each platform went through automatic updates I could connect to the broker and this takes time over a mobile phone connection and costs money). Use my advice!!! Don’t use it!!! (This unfortuanately is a lesson that normally is only learned when you have a position open and you were ‘just about to enter your stop loss but did not do it in time’ and the power went off and the phone went off and you don’t know the brokers telephone number so you can’t call them to trade manually or enter a stop telephonically AND when you are FINALLY online again the broker wants to know what your postal address is because they’d like to send you a ‘thank you’ note for the all the USD you’ve just given them for nothing!!! Clear!!!
Anyway Akram - for what it’s worth - I know where Gold (and Silver normally follows suit) is NOT GOING i.e. IT’S NOT going to $1000 an ounce - not this year anyway - and - at worst case - it’ll stop at $800 an ounce or so - so - if you’ve got the margin - hang on. Also - for some or the other reason this time around - Gold is following stocks (this normally does not happen) and I can tell you that every single Index that I trade is overbought and has been for a long time now so I figure this lot is about due for a nice correction - so - if that’s the case - we may not have to suffer the $800 an ounce mark just yet.
I seems that while the power was off I missed some HUMUNGOUS reversals on GBP/JPY - pity - I was ‘on a roll’ this morning!!!
What have I proved this morning? Well - at least I’m confident that our ‘total’ system does indeed have merit i.e. it was not wrong once this morning EVEN on the 5 Minute Charts (I’m just lucky that there were no economic data releases this morning - although I did check and today is quiet - but then - as I found out the hard way last week - even the Daily Charts or timeframes are no ‘guarantee’ of ‘immunity’ from these ‘pesky’ things).
I’m going to continue on this ‘short term trading quest’ of mine and see what happens. USD/JPY is currently showing the grand total of $232 profit at the moment - after nearly three days - not good enough!!! OK - if the truth be told - I did NOT throw nearly as much margin at the position as I did with these 5 Minute trades this morning. Everything is a tradeoff. Long timeframe - big positions - huge stop losses - smaller timeframe - big positions - smaller stop losses - all things being equal.
Stay in touch.
Regards,
Dale.
Where’s everyone? I’ve been stopped out of my EUR/GBP position at a small profit. I will not be online for the next 4 days so I’m seriously considering closing all my positions, at least the losing ones.
What do you mean ‘where’s everyone’ - I just typed a book for you to read!!! (Or were you meaning to say ‘where’s everyone ELSE’)!!!
As far as closing losing positions is concerned - I read somewhere once to ‘close your losing positions and let your winners run’. I cannot vouch for this statement though.
Big help huh???
Regards,
Dale.
Dale:
What TF do you use to determine trend? I like the idea of 5 min. TF to trade as I have the time to sit in front of the computer to do this (and I’m too impatient to try Daily.)
Do you use the 5 min for trend or something longer?
Thanks for all your work but you owe me a ream of printer paper for all of the “stuff” I have copied between the old strategy, old strategy revised, new, plus new revised. But keep it up as this has been a little profitable for me and educational to follow and learn.
Thanks again, d.
In rereading post #1090 is the PSAR the trend indicator? One might think so given the short time frame being traded. d.