LOL, Dale it appears we were both typing at the same time. 
Hey dobro - no problem - send me the bill!!!
Look - for this mornings âactionâ - I put the same indicators on all the charts - the Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4 Hour, 1 Hour, and 30 Minutes - and - by the âthe same indicatorsâ I mean - 50 SMA / 50 EMA / MACD / Parabolic SAR. I looked for a pair where ALL the indicators were going in the same direction on ALL the timeframes i.e. GBP/JPY AND had recently started closing above (could have been below as well) 50 SMA / 50 EMA on the Daily Chart - the logic being that if it had JUST closed above the MAâs then the âtrendâ was ânewâ and not becoming âexhaustedâ already. Thatâs it - moved the 5 Minute Chart - and âthe rest is historyâ.
Dale.
dobro, just got your last message.
I âdeemedâ there to be a âvalidâ and âstrongâ trend when the following were true (on ALL timeframes):
1 - The price had JUST CLOSED above the 50 EMA AND 50 SMA on the daily timeframe AND the price was CLOSING above the 50 EMA AND 50 SMA on ALL the other timeframes.
2 - BOTH the 50 EMA AND the 50 SMA had started to turn or âpointâ upwards.
3 - Parabolic SAR was going in the same direction as the MAâs on ALL timeframes.
4 - MACD had crossed and was heading up on ALL timeframes.
ALL of these conditions led me to believe that there was INDEED a trend upward on this pair (would you believe).
Thatâs what I looked for given the âriskyâ nature of what I was trying to âpull offâ this morning i.e. margining 40% of my capital on one trade was no âpsychological walk in the parkâ I can tell you for sure.
In other words - ALL of the above 4 conditions had been met on ALL timeframes. How can you go wrong???
Put it this way - if it didnât work - Iâd then have scrapped every single indicator and found another solution because with all of these indicators going in the same direction - again - how can you go wrong???
For what itâs worth though - Iâll tell you this - that if you âreverted backâ to âpureâ Parabolic SAR - I reckon it would still work - as long as your account could withstand the inevitable drawdowns - which I was NOT prepared to allow for this morning.
By the way Akram - I just read (again on one of the newsletters that you have all subscribed to not so) - that Gold futures were selling last week for about $745 - so - the way I understand it - thereâs your âtopâ for now - and it sure looks like Gold is âonly just hanging onâ around that mark ($743 for me at the moment).
Regards,
Dale.
For what itâs worth - AUD/CAD seems to be a âlikely forthcoming candidateâ for this same âplayâ i.e. the price (daily) is actually touching the 50 EMA and âhovering aroundâ the 50 SMA and MACD looks like itâs going to turn down sometime soon and Parabolic SAR has already given the reversal signal (this is another reason why I donât think Gold is going much further).
Put it this way - if Gold turns around - and AUD/CAD closes below both of those MAâs blah, blah blah - then - weâre good to go!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Dale,
so what u r saying is that the silver and gold is going to go up???the probelm is that the silver is stiing in 260 pips loss yeah i know it is to much but it was 370 at some point during the day i am still holding a profit with net 70 pips net.
Today there was no news so i was expcting that i will still hold this loss i think on friday i will see somthing moving more to my faviour that is why i am holding the 3 postions and i will post the result for to day to those who are intrested with both systems.i hope that the Doller will jump during this week other wise i will balme my self coz at some point i was having 350 pips in profit but it didnât excute the orders i hope i am not wrong about that.
yesterday i looked to the 30 min and i think it works perfect with the 30 min.diod u try it on 30 mint.
I think what u r doing Dale right now is that u r opening postions on 5 min with a huge margine i am i right like u hit and run away!
Regards,
Akram
Thank you, I get it now. Looking to pocket some pips. d.
So Dale u feel confidient with the 5 min now???
Akram
Dale,
here in egypt we do have DSL and 3G broadband where i can put the sim card on my lap top and i can go online any where yes it is bite expensive than the DSL but it is better than the DSL in terms of it conestent .I think u have 3G broadband in SOUTH AFRICA as u guys have Vodafone it might be a better option to have as a sand by with any emebrgency u could face!!
The price for the DSL monthy it is 20 USD for 256 k unlimmited while the 3G is 60 USD for 2 gega upload and download.
It is funny as we r a developing country but the tec. we have u will never find in North America when ever i go to canada with my 3G mobile phone people look at me as if i am coming from another planet!!! all they care about in North America about the phone is that it should be a flip phone and that is all!!!
I remmeber when i got my Nokia N70 i went to a coffe shop (to smoke Shesha !!)in Canada and lots of people where like woow where did u get this phone and they were so surpised to know that i got it 7 month ago and it is now an old mobile phone!!
Regards,
Akram
Rob,
where r u my friend?? do u have a flip mobile phone??!!!
Akram
I am here. Been feeling a little under the weather⌠taking a break from being on the computer too much.
Yes, I have a flip phone. A Nokia. Yes, people here are funny with their phones. Everyone always has to have the latest in technology. Lately, its that new Apple iphone. To be honest, thats a pretty cool looking phone and they way it functions and all⌠but not worth the money they want for it. I donât really care too much about my phone. I get whatever is cheapest or comes with my plan. I really hate talking on phones.
Well, time to go nurse my head and take some flu meds.
Sorry for being cold my freind but it is always like that u have to have 4 days during the year for being sick from cold.unfortunatly u have to catch cold once a year if u r lucky!!
The funny thing is that if u take pills or u donât in any cases u have to have some rest for 4 days!! i think they never do any thing these useless pils.
as far as being crazy from technology u r dam right.The other funny thing that people here no matter what are thier income they have to have the latiest mobile they donât care about thier car being old or any thing else in their life just thier mobile phone!!
Yeah the iphone i bought it a week ago but i think my wife will take it from me:mad:
I have to fight to get it for myself!!
Ohh boy what shall i say doller is down doller is up i got sick from the doller and the silver as well. both postions are going on my faviour not like before but they show nice profit
The sliver is the one that i hate right now as it is still in loss postion.although it is better than today early but i hate to see any thing negative!!
Will check for the news tom and will tell u what i will do
Regards,
Akram
Ok guys,
I checked with tom news.i will post the most important news that will come for the USD coz this is what i care about right now and it seems to be postive between the previous ones and the expected ones.
The most important one is USD trade balance and it seems to be postive so let us hope that it will have a good impact on the market.
I will hold these postions i am having for tommorow as well
Silver
USD/CHF
GBP/CHF
Let us see how things will go
Regards,
Akram
Ok guys
My Vodafone 3G broadband doesnât have a signals so i am offline with it but it has a very nice option where if the 3G is not available then it will be connected through the EDGE or GPRS tec. yes it is dam slow but at least i can post some posts.
So how every body doing??? why no one is posting is that coz u guys have a bif loss? Dale how are u doing?
Regards,
Akram
Hello Guys,
Well today was not good and was not bad as well as i still in profit i think the market was affected by yesterday news i think we should see some move with the any thing realted to the USD/???
As there will be news and it is expected to be better than last month as mentioned before it is about the trade balance and i am sure it will be better why??
Coz the trade balance is the differenc between importing and expoting as far as i know and as the states droped down there intrest rate then for sure there doller went down which means that the exports are going to be better )hopfully) then we should se a big move!! (hope i am right)
As for the GBP/CHF (based on new rule) there will not be any new news from both country and hopfully that will mean the direction of this postion will foloow the gravity of our system thus will come to our faviour.(i hope it will not follow the news that came from UK yesterday which was bad!!)
Regards,
Akram
Dale:
Since Iâm not contributing much needed technical analysis (such as backtesting) to this thread, I might as well provide some diversion.
Never heard of Tarja before I met you so I looked her up (well her music on the web). Pleasantly surprised. I seem to recall you loving metal, that hard rock scene. Surprise, surprise, Tarja is more ballad, operatic, European pop. âI Walk Aloneâ on the âWinter Stormâ album, I listened to that at least three times. Sounds deep, dark, and painful. Visual narration of the video is awesome. Could have layered another story level to add variety. Perhaps with you dreaming of her.
As for Captain Morgan it turns out that the factory appears to be in Puerto Rico. If the Jamaican Black Label product says produced in jamaica then quite likely that one is produced in Jamaica. Hereâs wikipedia:
[B]In 1944, the Seagram Company started producing rum under the name Captain Morgan Rum Company.
Seagram CEO Samuel Bronfman purchased a Jamaican distillery named Long Pond from the Jamaican government. Among the buyers of raw rum from the Long Pond distillery was a Kingston pharmacy named Levy Brothers. The Levy family had been purchasing raw rum, adding medicinal herbs and spices, aging, and bottling it. Bronfman liked the rum product and bought the rights to it.
In the 1950s the United States federal government and the government of Puerto Rico created a number of economic incentives to create jobs in Puerto Rico. Taxes on rum entering the United States produced in Puerto Rico were less than from outside the United States. At this time both Seagramâs, Bronfman, and the Bacardi family built large new plants near San Juan.
In 1984, Captain Morgan Original Spiced rum was introduced to the United States.
Captain Morgan is, by volume, the third largest brand of spirits in the United States, and the seventh largest world-wide. In 2005, 6.5 million 9-liter cases were sold. Most Captain Morgan rum is sold in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, South Africa, and in continental Europe.[/B]
As the title states: âI love this threadâ!!!
Thanks for the ârum infoâ. Iâve always wondered about it because I HATE being âtaken for a rideâ by advertisers and marketers!!! Anyway - I checked (an empty) bottle and it does say that itâs produced AND bottled in Jamaica so I guess Iâm OK!!!
Now - as far as Tarja is concerned - NO! NO! NO! âIâll Walk Aloneâ is certainly NOT one of my âfavouritesâ. Itâs a good song (but I would not go out and buy the album because of this song) but whoever came up with video concept for the song should be shot at point blank range (Iâm hoping it was not her of course). I mean (and all of this is MY opinion of course) Tarja Turunen is the most beautiful and âexquisiteâ and âclassyâ woman in the world - not to mention talented of course - and in that video theyâve made her look like an âold hagâ. I mean - she looks like a man with that wig on!!! What are they trying to do to her??? Who did that??? Anyway - I digress (he says while âfoaming at the mouthâ). Tarja is the âexâ singer from âNightwishâ but she has always had her own solo career (classical, opera, acting) and if you want to see âmyâ Tarja then âmosey on overâ to youtube and do a search using the keywords ânightwish end of an eraâ. Some or the other person (and it was NOT me because I actually LOATHE people who take money âout of the artists mouthâ by copying and distributing their work for free but it suits my purposes right now for this post I suppose) has uploaded every single song from the DVD. Itâs the DVD from their last concert together (Tarja and Nightwish). If you never do ANYTHING else for me in this lifetime then please just do me this one favour and go and have a âlook seeâ at some of the songs. If you want to get an idea on just how fantastic her voice is then have a âlook seeâ at their version (rendition?) of âPhantom Of The Operaâ (particularly toward the end of the song when sheâs âgiving it her allâ and hitting those high notes). It would be really hard for me to âpick a favouriteâ for you watch or listen to. I have every single Nightwish (Tarja) release and every single song just âdoes things for meâ. I suppose - if I REALLY had to âpickâ - it would be âBless The Childâ and âWish I Had An Angelâ and . . . !!! Sorry - too difficult!!! Do me (yourself) a favour and watch them all!!! She has also released one or two samples from her new (upcoming) solo album âMy Winter Stormâ. I have taken the liberty of uploading one of them onto my business website for you to download and have a listen to (and by the way itâs HER download i.e. itâs available as a FREELY DISTRIBUTABLE download from the albumâs website but you have to register on the site before you can download it so Iâve saved you the trouble). The link is http://fintrans.net/tarja/tarja_turunen_ciarans-well.mp3. Now thatâs âmyâ Tarja!!!
I could go on about this (her) for ages but I wonât. Actually - to âsum upâ - I quote my ten year old daughter here saying (this said after much âindoctrinationâ of course): âTarja is fine dining and French Champagne - Amy Lee (Evanescence - also âone of the bestâ) is beer and pretzelsâ!!!
Anyway - if Iâm ever going to meet âthe ladyâ - I had better get on with some work now (trading). Iâll post some TRADING info just now after Iâve âchecked out whatâs happeningâ with the markets!!!
(By the way - now that things are going well again - I decided to put her back)!!!
Regards,
Dale.
PS - Administrators - PLEASE donât delete THIS message of mine - I wonât post links EVER AGAIN to .mp3 files or youtube (or the like) - I just HAD to post this one. I think Iâve been âdoing goodâ on this thread so I hope youâll forgive me this one âlittle slipâ!!!
OK - well - âback to the land of dreamsâ!!!
WTF is going on with Gold!!! I only have two positions open at the moment - GOLD and (yep - you guessed it EUR/RON) - and theyâre both killing me!!! Gold is (right now) at a $4K loss and EUR/RON is back up to a $1.6K loss!!! What is going on here (at this rate Iâll get to see Tarja when sheâs in a home for the aged and sheâs younger than me)!!!
I also see that the GBP is âhaving problemsâ today!!! It also looks like I missed out on some âgrandâ GBP/JPY trades while I as typing my âTarjaâ message earlier!!! Iâm going to send her the bill (actually - on second thought - Iâm going to send Glendon the bill - he started it)!!!
Anyway - how is everybody doing with all of this? Who is following what? From âwhere I sitâ this SMA (EMA) âthingâ combined with Parabolic SAR is âtop of the popsâ. I know that waiting for the prices to close above or below the 50 SMA and / or the 50 EMA is costing some PIPâs BUT the profits are âsurerâ by the looks of things. Comments???
Regards,
Dale.
You know - I donât know if itâs my âplaceâ to say this - but Iâd really like to thank everyone that posts on, and follows, this thread - for âkeeping it cleanâ.
I was just going through some of âotherâ threads (here - and on âthat other forex forumâ - you know the one - where there are only âknow it allsâ) and some of the threads really have gotten âpersonalâ and âuglyâ - and we donât have that here.
I mean - I know we âgoof offâ sometimes - you know - discuss âpersonal issuesâ and âjoke aroundâ and have learned to âfool the systemâ with our âprofanityâ - but weâve never had âuglinessâ here. I think that we really have a âspecial bunch of peopleâ here on this thread (I wasnât including myself in that by the way - itâs my opinion of you âguys and dollsâ).
I know Iâve been wrong (sometimes) - and I appreciate the fact that nobody has âlaid into meâ when there has been a difference of opinion and has just been happy to disagree and give me their reasons.
Thanks.
Dale.
OK - well - again âscouringâ the charts - a nice âsimple short term solutionâ for you:
5 Minute charts
Maximum margin (NEVER quote me on this one)
Parabolic SAR
50 EMA or 50 SMA
Take ANY Parabolic SAR entry signal to go short when the price of the bar that has just given you the Parabolic SAR entry signal to go short has closed below the 50 EMA or 50 SMA and continue to take Parabolic SAR entry signals to go short for as long as the price is closing below the 50 EMA or 50 SMA. The MAâs should be âgoing downâ.
Take ANY Parabolic SAR entry signal to go long when the price of the bar that has just given you the Parabolic SAR entry signal to go long has closed above the 50 EMA or 50 SMA and continue to take Parabolic SAR entry signals to go long for as long as the price is closing above the 50 EMA or 50 SMA. The MAâs should be âgoing upâ.
For initial stop losses you use the 50 EMA or 50 SMA or Parabolic SAR - whichever is closer to the price. This is to keep you from losing too much when the price is closing above and below the MAâs for a couple of bars.
For âinsuranceâ you could use the MACD Oscillator (forget about the MACD MAâs as it just gets confusing) i.e. confirmation to go short is the MACD Oscillator being below the zero line and confirmation to go long is the MACD Ocscillator being above the zero line.
Iâve spent most of the morning playing around with EMAâs and SMAâs - and you people should go and mess around with them and try different values and different type of MAâs and see what you come up with.
Iâll tell you something else for nothing: if you JUST traded the 50 EMA or 50 SMA youâd STILL make nice profits on the shorter timeframes.
I mean - just look at the attached chart of USD/DKK (ignore Parabolic SAR for now although I have left it on the chart). If you went short when the price closed below the MAâs and stayed short until the price EVENTUALLY crossed back up and closed above the MAâs youâd still be in the âmajor bucksâ and this seems to hold true on any pair (but this âplayâ defintely âfavoursâ the shorter timeframes it would seem).
Iâm actually quite âupsetâ with myself at the moment - Iâve missed so many trades this morning - and good ones too - not concentrating and spending too much time âanalysingâ and getting âanalysis paralysisâ and there is only one trading day left this week. Not good!!!
By the way Akram - you should be âcryingâ as well at the moment - because if Silver is following Gold - then youâre pretty much in the same position as I am at the moment. Gold is REALLY âgetting under my skinâ. The only reason I have not closed this position at a (now) over $5K loss is because I KNOW it will turn at some point - and - when it does - I can tell you that pairs like GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD (Oil is also going up again) and pairs like that are going to help be âkick Goldâs buttâ!!! Just have a look at the 5 minute chart of GBP/AUD at the moment. When that finally reverses - âoh boy oh boyâ!!!
Just âthowing inâ some more observations - not meant to confuse - but to promote âexperimentationâ and generate âinterestâ and to stimulate âcuriousityâ!!!
Dale.
This is going to sound âsillyâ but Iâve been asking myself this question:
âWhy BOTH the 50 EMA AND the 50 SMAâ?
Iâve been trying to see whether or not there really is a point to using both and it would appear that there is.
Take a look at the attached chart (AUD/USD - 5 minutes).
The 50 EMA had already started to indicate a downtrend BUT the 50 SMA is still pointing up. In other words - the 50 SMA seems to give a âstronger trend reversal indicationâ than the 50 EMA - and I always thought that it would be the other way around.
In other words - what Iâm saying - is that they BOTH have to be going in the same direction to confirm a trend.
Uh - by the way - am I the only person trading today??? Did I say something wrong??? What???
Regards,
Dale.