yes, i posted them per dale’s requested early on this thread.
so now that this is the “old system”, what is the general consensus? does it still work well enough, or should i skim these pages and discover the updates and revisions that have been made?
synchronicity_ii,
Give the “old system” a try. Actually, I don’t think we should be calling it the “old system” just yet as there really hasn’t been any major changes. But give the system a try. I think overall, the general consensus is that the system works. Bocajunior has illustrated this with his postings as he has been using it the whole time.
BUT I think it has now been shown well, already been proven that this system does nto work in a range bound market. That is the problem we’ve been having latley as we really haven’t been able to get into good trade with this system. So I think everyone is kind of branching out or getting fresh ideas to combat times like these.
Personally, I haven’t been able to find a single trade with this system this whole past week and a half. At least when I’m able to get on to look at the charts. So I ended up looking at another system that could get me into the market if not a couple hours and a couple days out of the week so I’m still at least showing a profit. Though I suppose there will be those bad weeks and those times where you can’t do anything at all.
oh and… sorry for the sudden quick thought… do skim through these pages. theres a lot of good talk on trading as everyone brings up good points beyond the system here. i know theres a lot to read, but when you get the chance, make sure you read most of it.
Good MORNING ALL!!!
synchronicity_ii:
Thank you!!! That’s EXACTLY the picture I was looking for!!! I saw that picture YEARS ago and have never forgotten it!!! Where did you find it???
Suffice to say I’ve printed it out and it’s going on my wall!!!
(And - of course - where are YOU from?)
And YES - that’s EXACTLY what I need to see now!!!
Anyway - everybody else is right - the ‘original’ system appears to work better than anything else I’ve come up with lately. I really think that my HBOP/LBOP post has merit - at the moment - but - generally speaking - like I said - the ‘original’ system also has merit.
To be honest - also like I said earlier in one of my ‘posts from the heart’ - I broke the MOST important ‘rule’ of our ‘system’ - I ran out of patience - and started ‘chasing’ because of financial pressures - and messed up - but Parabolic SAR does work - no question - as long as you see the trades through ‘to maturity’.
Glendon. What makes you think I can afford some or the other course??? But thanks for the input and concern anyway - I do appreciate it.
Charles. You mentioned the ???/JPY pairs but what do your AUD/???, CAD/???, and EUR/??? pairs look like on your charts? All (most) of my AUD/???, CAD/???, and EUR/??? pairs (at Delta anyway) are just ‘begging’ to fall over sometime soon (Gold willing on AUD/??? and Oil willing on CAD/??? of course)!!!
By the way - I’ve attached a chart of AUD/CHF to demonstrate my (well not really ‘my’) HBOP / LBOP ‘play’. Check it out. The beauty of this ‘play’ is that if you’re wrong - you don’t have to wait too long to find out and your initial stop loss is also not that ‘severe’ (this is actually what started my ‘fu*k up’ last week i.e. I had a HUGE position of GBP/JPY and the Parabolic SAR stop was so far from the opening price - and - of course - for some or the other reason - the pair went down very quickly - costing me over $8K - and then - trying to ‘chase’ this loss cost me even MORE). Anyway - according to MY charts there are many pairs showing the same ‘potential’ (note Stochastics and RSI as well).
Regards,
Dale.
PS - Actually - I’ve got to tell you - I REALLY appreciated the posts this morning - particularly ‘my long lost’ picture (cartoon). I was told last night that my trading is ‘nothing other than a lie’ and ‘not a real job’ and ‘will never go anywhere’ (as you’ve probably also no doubt gathered by now - ‘reading between the lines’ - my home life is also a ‘fukup on the GRANDEST of scales’ - which - of course - does not help matters - so - I appreciate you guys AND ‘dolls’ (I’ve got to watch it here - ‘Just Joan’ might decide to ‘start’ with me - remember the ‘Ingot54’ ‘saga’). It actually amazes me - it’s hard enough to make a living out of this WITHOUT this 'other sht’. Anyway - like I tell them - I WILL make this work - IN SPITE of everybody around me and the negativity that plagues me on a daily basis!!!
Not to start my ‘sh*t’ again i.e. ‘chopping and changing’ things again BUT - again - after reading through some of my trading books - I think that there REALLY is ‘a lot to be said’ for moving averages!!!
I’ve attached the following 4 charts:
AUD/CHF - daily - 50 EMA and 200 EMA
AUD/CHF - 4 hour - 50 EMA and 200 EMA
AUD/CHF - daily - 8 EMA and 21 EMA
AUD/CHF - 4 hour - 8 EMA and 21 EMA
MY observations are as follows:
With the 50 EMA and 200 EMA:
It’s obvious that if you only took the long Parabolic SAR trades when the price is above the 50 EMA you’d ONLY be in ‘the good trades’ and would NEVER take those ‘false’ Parabolic SAR reversal signals.
With the 8 EMA and 21 EMA:
(This is actually ‘a system’ detailed in one of my trading books - ignore Parabolic SAR for the moment).
You would wait until the 8 EMA has crossed the 21 EMA and then you would wait for a ‘pullback’ to the 8 EMA before opening a position. Your stop loss (and exit / take profit point) would be the 21 EMA. Nice small losses when you’re ‘wrong’ - great profits when you’re ‘right’.
Take a look see (I know that these are ‘perfect’ and ‘ideal’ examples but it really does seem to work on ‘less than perfect’ examples as well).
Dale.
Synchronicity ii
My notes say the orig. post is #100 on pg 10; a revised version is post 1106, pg 111; and then finally a diff. strategy was given on 10/13, pg 118(?)
Hope this helps cut down on the reading. d
How can you want to ‘cut down the reading’??? After all the ‘heart and soul and blood sweat and tears’ I put into this!!!
(Only kidding of course)!!!
Tell you what I’m going to do:
I’ll put the whole thing NICELY into and Adobe .pdf and attach it to the very first message in the thread - how’s that!!!
(I know - I’ve been promising to do this for a while now - and actually did start the document last week - but - because of this weeks ‘shinannigins’ - it was put on the ‘back burner’).
Good idea actually - it’ll help put ME back on track as well.
Regards,
Dale.
Actually - before I go ‘hell for leather’ creating documentation for this system - I want you all to have a good look at the attached chart.
From where I sit - it would appear that the EMA’s are FAR stronger confirmation of the trend and price action than ANY of the other indicators that we’ve ‘slapped on’ as we’ve gone along.
There are about 3 or 4 very good trades that would not have been taken had you been checking Stochastics and RSI (at least - based on our ‘rules’ - I would not have taken them and missed out ‘big time’).
From what I can see - this ‘system’ of ours could be simplified like this:
50 EMA
200 EMA
Parabolic SAR
Only take Parabolic SAR entry signals to go long if the price is closing above both the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA and both EMA’s are curved and pointing upwards.
Only take Parabolic SAR entry signals to go short if the price is closing below both the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA and both EMA’s are curved and pointing down.
The only exceptions to the above ‘rules’ is when the price starts closing between the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA - in which case it’s still OK to take Parabolic SAR entry signals to go long as long as the price is closing above the 200 EMA AND the 50 EMA is curved and pointing upwards - and - it’s still OK to take Parabolic SAR entry signals to go short as long as the price is closing below the 200 EMA AND the 50 EMA is curved and pointing downwards.
This keeps you out of most ‘bad’ Parabolic SAR entries from what I can see.
That’s as simple as it gets I think.
I SUPPOSE you could use MACD, Stochastics, and RSI for confirmation (basically to make yourself feel better about your positions) but don’t base the decision to open a position on them alone i.e. they carry LESS ‘weight’ than the EMA’s in my opinion. I think they (MACD, Stochastics, and RSI) keep you out of too many trades - as I have found out - and - they are ‘wrong’ a great deal of the time too. In the attached chart if you waited for MACD to cross for confirmation of an entry you’re missing out on quite a bit of initial profit in some cases and this ‘profit cushion’ is important when using Parabolic SAR for the simple reason that if the trade DOES go against you your losses will obviously be far greater without this ‘profit cushion’ that is (normally) ‘earned’ early on in a Parabolic SAR trade.
Opinions???
If all of the above is true then I’d go so far as to say that that’s it - that’s our ‘system’ - that’s ‘PSARism’!!!
What do YOU think???
Regards,
Dale.
Edit:
Sorry - I had to make the chart bigger to show more data and it would appear that when it’s uploaded it gets compressed or resized so that it fits ‘within bounds’ so it’s a bit difficult to read my comments by viewing the thumbnail. If you do have difficulty in reading my comments then download the attached WinZip archive - it contains the full size bitmap of the same chart and is obviously easier to view with something like Paintbrush or Microsoft Picture Viewer or something like that.
audchf parabolic sar and ema.zip (86.7 KB)
Geez - the ‘analytical juices’ are flowing today I’ll tell you (it must be all the new ‘Tarja’ music I found over the weekend - see below). I got ‘Tarja’d’ last night - me an Captain Morgan!!! Things are obviously ‘looking up’ and not as bad as I thought (felt) they were on Friday!!!
Anyway - heres another ‘thought’:
What about ‘scaling out’ your positions based on Parabolic SAR as well?
In other words - let’s say that the maximum you are prepared to risk (in lot size) is 100 000 units. So - you change your lot size (if you are able to) to 25 000 units and when you get your first Parabolic SAR entry signal (based on the ‘rules’ described in my previous message) you open a position with 4 lots (which obviously is equal to 100 000 units). Now - as the position goes in your favour - you close one lot at a time based on the Parabolic SAR dots - until you are left with only one lot which you then leave alone until the position has reached ‘Parabolic SAR maturity’.
In other words - let’s say that you get a Parabolic SAR entry signal. You open 4 lots of 25 000 units upon entry. When you get the next Parabolic SAR entry signal and IF YOU ARE IN PROFIT AT THIS STAGE you close out or sell off one lot. When you get the next Parabolic SAR dot you close out or sell off another lot BUT ONLY IF YOUR PROFIT HAS INCREASED SINCE CLOSING OUT OR SELLING OFF THE PREVIOUS LOT and so on and so forth.
What this accomplishes is that IF the trade DOES go against you later on your losses will either be a lot less OR you will at least be guaranteed of SOME profit. It also ‘goes along’ with my theory profits are made sooner than later in a Parabolic SAR trade (in most cases if it’s a good strong trend anyway).
Again - thoughts???
Regards,
Dale.
PS - I found two songs on compact disk this weekend - one by a guy I’ve never heard of and the other ‘just a song’ that was written for a compilation compact disk ‘special’ of all of the Nuclear Blast Artists - but the songs ‘feature’ Tarja and man oh man - I think she sounds even better (as if that were even possible) on her own than she did with Nightwish. How about that!!! Has anyone heard of a chap by the name of ‘Martin Kesici’? Anyway - I’ve attached a WinZip archive that contains ‘edited’ versions of the songs for you to listen to (I’ve ‘edited’ them so that you can just get a ‘little idea’ of what she is sounding like now - if you like them - you’ll have to order them from somewhere - ‘my honey deserves her money’ you know). There is also a text document containing a link to youtube if you want to see THE MOST awesome video ever made for a song (it’s the ‘Martin Kesici’ song included here)!!! AND - if ANY of you like guitar - man - you’ve got to hear the ‘driving rythmn’ on ‘In The Picture’!!!
Martin Kesici - Leaving You For Me - Featuring Tarja Turunen - youtube link.zip (298 Bytes)
Martin Kesici - Leaving You For Me - Featuring Tarja Turunen (sample only).zip (563 KB)
In The Picture - Featuring Tarja Turunen (sample only).zip (901 KB)
It seems as long the EMAs are lined in order of their size (if going LONG, 8 is above 21, and 21 above 50 and 50 above 200) its “safe”? i know you all are now saying really sherlock? DUH! Seems so obvious but same time so simple 
This way you can double check and make sure that the new appearing SAR point is valid or just a fake and is not really changing its direction.
I’m thinking of using this on 3 / 4 hour or daily charts, and stop loss would be the daily SAR point or one of the EMAs 
Same picture with better resolution in the attached .zip file.
Dale, i dont understand that 4 lot thingy you wrote. what would happen if the trade goes to the wrong direction right after opening it with 4 lots? That would make a 4x times losses that translates to more risk?
Hi Dale and all the folks on this thread,
New kid on the block here. I’ve been demo trading for around 4 months now. This thread has been fantastic, a real education.
I read the first 150 messages or so, it was like reading a great novel. But I jumped to the end of the (as of yet unfinished) book to see how it ends, and realized the system has been evolving. So thanks for this recap for us late comers to the thread.
You wrote:
“… Now - as the position goes in your favour - you close one lot at a time based on the Parabolic SAR dots - until you are left with only one lot which you then leave alone until the position has reached ‘Parabolic SAR maturity’.”
What do you mean to close a lot based on the sar dot? I thought the system is to close a lot when the dot changes sides and then it’s time to re-enter in the other direction. (That was before I learned of the emas which may keep you out.) Could you clarify the exit strategy a little?
Thanks again
Joe
Good evening again all,
Joe - welcome to the thread - always nice to welcome someone new.
(Where are you from?) Sorry - some might think it ‘weird’ that I always ask this question but I really like to know where everybody is (as it will appear in our ‘system’ document at some point - you know - to add that ‘international’ and ‘global’ ‘flavour’ to our ‘system’).
As far as exit strategy is concerned - yes - you are quite right - the idea is to only exit when a new dot appears in the opposite direction (although that’s not ‘strictly’ true anymore if you’re going to use the EMA’s to ‘be sure’ of your trades i.e. you would only be taking short or long trades depending on the direction of the EMA’s).
I was just suggesting that you ‘scale out’ your position until you only have one lot left and this last lot you let run until you are stopped out by Parabolic SAR.
johto, my friend. How are you?
Remember - I’m saying that you decrease your lot size so - in effect - even if you now have four positions (lots) open initially - and the trade goes against you - it’s no different from what your ‘norm’ would have been had you not decreased your lot size from what it was before. The reason that I thought of this is because in most of the ‘trading systems’ detailed in the books that I read they advocate doing this ‘scaling out’ regardless of what ‘trading system’ is being used - the idea being that if the trade does go against you for whatever reason you’ve still (hopefully) got SOME profit not a just a ‘nice fat loss’.
As far as the EMA’s are concerned - I was suggesting using the 50 EMA and 200 EMA for Parabolic SAR trades and the 8 EMA and 21 EMA for trading a different way i.e. the ‘pullback’ method as I described BUT you may very well be onto something i.e. using all four EMA’s on the chart - that way you’re can be REAL sure what the trend is I would imagine.
And - BY THE WAY - I hope YOU’VE listened to my new ‘Tarja stuff’!!! You HAVE to support her - she’s a (your) National Asset - Finlands National Treasure!!!
Regards,
Dale.
PS - Oh - and just to give you all a ‘heads up’ - I have a good feeling about this coming week - especially since I feel I’m ‘on track’ again with my thinking - so it means that come Friday - my brokers will be selling USD to buy ZAR - so watch out - the market will be absolutely flooded with USD and the value of the USD is going to ‘drop like a stone’ once Delta and GCI process my withdrawl requests!!! You’ve been warned!!!
Hello DALE AND EVERYONE WHO IS OLLOWING THIS THREAD,
OK now i can see a new system that u posting Dale.
What u r saying is that we only have 3 three things
50 EMA,200 EMA AND PSAR
so if the candel colsed above the EMA’S and the PSAR IS in uptrend then we go for LONG?
and if they candel close below the EMA’S and PSAR IS shown in downtrend the we go for SHORT?
this was the entry so how about the exit is it when PSAR shows in an opposit direction?
REGARDS,
Akram
You wrote:
“As far as exit strategy is concerned - yes - you are quite right - the idea is to only exit when a new dot appears in the opposite direction (although that’s not ‘strictly’ true anymore if you’re going to use the EMA’s to ‘be sure’ of your trades i.e. you would only be taking short or long trades depending on the direction of the EMA’s).”
What’s not strictly true because of the EMAs? The fact that you don’t get right back into the opposite trade, or somehow this affects the exit also?
Also, are the stop losses still on the dot or has that changed in any way because of the EMAs?
Looking at the charts it seems this system should work on 4 hour charts too, with a much smaller stop loss. For us starting out with a small account it could be helpful. Has anyone tried that yet?
BTW I’m from Chicago.
Joe
Hi,
Basically - nothing has changed i.e. stops and take profit are still Parabolic SAR’s ‘job’ - it’s just that it would really appear that the EMA’s are definitely a far stronger and more reliable ‘heads up’ of whether or not there actually IS a trend and it’s direction.
What’s not ‘strictly true’ anymore is that you are not going to stop and reverse when you get a Parabolic SAR stop and reverse signal if you’re going to use the EMA’s. Put it this way - if the EMA’s are indicating an uptrend i.e. the price is closing above the EMA’s (particularly the 50 EMA) then you’re only going to take long trades and not stop and reverse if you get a Parabolic SAR stop and reverse signal. The way I look at it there’s little point i.e. the amount of times that the Parabolic SAR stop and reverse signal is ‘wrong’ if it is indicating a ‘counter trend’ (or ‘counter EMA’) trade by far exceeds the number of times when the Parabolic SAR stop and reverse signal was ‘right’ when indicating a ‘counter trend’ trade and this just costs money (losses) and ties up capital that could be used elsewhere.
I’ve also noticed (CharlesLioe) that they (the EMA’s) MAY also solve your problem of identifying pairs trading in a range i.e. if the EMA’s are not going up or going down but are ‘flat’ or ‘horizontal’ or consistently move up and down like a wave then I’d say that the pair is trading in a range. What do you think?
Edit:
Sorry Joe - I did not see you last question. I don’t see any reason why it should not work on the 4 hour timeframe either and as you say your stops would be ‘tighter’ so less loss if stopped out. Just ALL remember one thing though - the 50 EMA and 200 EMA are ‘key’ EMA’s on the DAILY charts - not on the shorter timeframes - so - if you’re looking for a confirmed trend reversal - it would be indicated on the DAILY chart i.e. the fact that the pair MAY trade below the 50 EMA and 200 EMA after being above the 50 EMA and 200 EMA on the 4 hour timeframe DOES NOT mean that the pair has actually reversed it’s trend direction (hope that makes sense).
Regards,
Dale.
Hmm… So many new ideas and things.
Dale, I think to start off you should organize your thoughts. This new stuff is starting to cause a lot of confusion and questions. What if you were to fully write the systems out (original and new) in a couple PDFs like you were saying and post them so that everyone can read in full what your complete idea is. Complete with charts for visual reference. Just write them out as you have them now. Don’t digress or start talking new ideas in them… get the basic plans out there. Then, we can just run with them. We’ll take those basics and improve on them if we need to as they come.
Know what I’m saying? I don’t mean to be bossy or tell you how to run the program… I just think it would be a good idea to help you de-clutter your thoughts and get everyone on track as well. Forgive me for sounding direct and pushy.
Or you could just simple write it all out on a new post and post that too… whatever works best. That way you can have it all right there for everyone to reference to and form their questions from there.
Anyway, I think you’re on to something again. I had a question as well… but I don’t remember what it was. Oh yea, in the one chart up there where you were explaining the EMA-PSAR system, the short trend you had circled in red… I noticed, going with the rules of the original, you would’ve gotten in that huge trade had you followed the MACD cross, PSAR, etc. But, I guess you do bring up a good point as those spikes don’t happen often and there isn’t anyway to tell that they’re coming… Its just sheer luck that anyone could be in that trade at that time. I think I just answered my own question! LOL
I shall give this new idea a try and see where it goes this week. I think I understand your take profit increment strategy. It makes a lot of sense to do it that way. You could like risk a certain amount and when it goes into profit and reaches each ‘profit point’ you take a 1/4 of what you risk each time and then with the last 1/4, you can ‘let it ride’ until a full exit point has been reached. Because that way, each point you’re making yourself take a profit instead of letting it all ride out. Because if the thing was to change course, at least you would have made some profits out of it.
Oh and like what Chicago Joe was saying (by the way, welcome Joe! I went to school in Chicago!), the new design seems like it would work on a lower time frame like the 4 hour charts. Which would be cool cause then there could be more options.
Alright, cool stuff. Until next time…
Thanks for the welcome.
What I was thinking was that if we look at the trade on the daily chart, seeing that the dot shows to go long and we are above the EMA. Then check the 4 hour and if it is also showing the same, go long using the 4hour dot for a stop loss, but then continue following the trade on the daily. Does this make sense?
That way we also get the 50 EMA on the daily that you said is being watched.
Chicago Joe (I kinda like the sound of it)
Yes, that does make sense Chicago Joe. It would be good to check on those lower time frames to see where everything is going.
I’d like to take a second to mention this thread has reached and exceeded 1,200 posts! :eek: Oh yea, break out the Captain! Its time to party! 
If changes to the EMA’s should be made for shorter time frames, pls post suggestions as Daily just doesn’t work for me. thank you. d