Parabolic SAR - that's all!

Trading Systems Free Forex Trading Systems
1214

Wow - we’re ALIVE again!!!

Hey Rob - don’t YOU start confusing ME!!! (I don’t think you’re being ‘bossy’ either - point is taken though).

Put it this way - right now - my thoughts are clearer than they’ve been for a very long time - believe it or not!!!

My last post detailing JUST Parabolic SAR and the EMA’s - I reckon - is the ‘money shot’!!! Put it this way - when I first made my ‘gazillions’ trading ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR - as I said before - that was really more of a ‘windfall’ than anything else (although I did not realise it at the time). Then I added all those ‘crappy’ indicators to try and ensure that I took only EXTREMELY high probability trades - and that kept me out for weeks AND most of the trades that I did get into turned ‘sour’ anyway because a whole lot of them were basically ‘counter trend’ trades or reversals and remember - this IS a trend following indicator - nothing more - nothing less. Then I started playing around with moving averages and - hey presto - the confirmation of the existence of a trend AND it’s direction was there all along ‘right under my nose’ - simple stuff - the EMA’s.

And by the way Rob - have you looked back a couple of messages and listened to my music??? I thought YOU would have seeing that you’re also a ‘muso’ (and if you’d read THAT message you’d also know that I’ve ALREADY ‘broken out the Captain’ this weekend)!!! Like I ALSO said in a earlier post - I wonder if there’s a prize for longest thread???

‘Chicago Joe’ - that is nice isn’t it!!! Sound sort of ‘gangsterish’ or ‘mafiosoish’ especially seeing that you’re from Chicago!!!

Anyway - I agree with you as far as the 4 hour charts are concerned also - probably a good way to trade if the truth be told.

dobro, I can’t see why the EMA’s should have different values on the shorter timeframes - they should still work.

Like I ALSO said before - if you JUST traded the EMA’s (and this is NOT another change ROB just an observation) - you’d still make money - regardless of the timeframe - just take a look see - that’s why I think they’re so ‘powerful’ AND like I ALSO said in a previous post - it’s the EMA’s (strictly speaking it’s the DMA’s) that (it seems) all the ‘players’ use to check for the existence of a trend, it’s direction, and a potential reversal - at least from what I gather anyway and particularly on stocks.

By the way - it seems that everyone is pretty much ‘ignoring’ the 8 EMA / 21 EMA ‘pullback’ ‘system’ I posted earlier (YES ROB - THIS is a different system). Take a look at your charts - it’s pretty ‘powerful stuff’ - don’t discount it (I never came up with it - it’s in a book)!!! Both ‘systems’ could be traded together in fact i.e. both ‘systems’ would be taking trades in the same direction (but then - let’s not complicate matters shall we - I’m pretty darn good at doing that wouldn’t you say)???

Hey Rob - you know I’m only ‘taking the mickey’ out of you!!!

Regards,

Dale.

Edit:

Actually - to demonstrate my point about the ‘effectiveness’ of the EMA’s - just take a look at the attached chart of the Dow Jones (futures) (the chart does not include current information and is just for demonstration / historical purposes). Like I said (and as detailed on the chart) - ignoring Parabolic SAR for the moment - if you JUST traded the EMA’s - you’d have made nearly 1000 GUARANTEED PIPS WITH NO DRAWDOWN AND NEVER SHOWING A LOSS over the period indicated so you could have thrown a ‘sh*tpile’ of margin at it. The Dow Jones (futures) is $1 per ‘tick’ or PIP movement for a $50 lot SO if you’d opened 10 lots at $50 each i.e. laid out $500 at the time you’d have MADE $10K in six or seven months - and that my trusted friends - is 2000% return on your money!!!

Edit:

Sorry - I made a mistake - it was actually around 1300 PIP’s that it moved in this period - not 1000 (I left the above figures there in case somebody had already read the original post). So - that means that for a $500 outlay - you made $13K - which is 2600% return if I’m not mistaken!!! In six months for crying out loud!!!

dow jones futures 50 ema 200 ema parabolic sar.jpg700×464 75 KB

1215

Uh - by the way - it’s probably ‘wishful thinking’ on my part - but Gold ‘appears’ to have started going lower. Hold thumbs - we may be getting those ‘majestic’ reversals on all the ‘commdoll’ pairs sooner than we think (well - on AUD/??? and NZD/??? anyway).

Just one thing by the way (I’m surprised nobody as started ‘whining’ about this yet): you will always lose something on your very last trade i.e. when the trend reverses direction - it stands to reason - but - if you’ve been in the main trend since the beginning this loss will be of very little consequence.

Anyway - I’ve placed all my orders for tonight (no Parabolic SAR entry points for me so I’m trying the HBOP / LBOP ‘system’ for entries tonight i.e. to catch any trend reversals that may come ‘like a thief in the night’).

‘Catch you on the flipside’ (ever seen ‘Boondock Saints’)???

Dale.

1216

Wow - I just had a look at that message count again!!! Is it all the ‘crap’ that I post here that’s driven it up so high (actually - it can’t be - I’ve ONLY posted something like 460 or so messages)??? I looked at the other pages and we BY FAR have the most posts (babypips will have to move us to our own server one of these days if this keeps up)!!!

G’night!!!

Dale.

1217

Dale,

on my broker platform concerning the gold.the PSAR shows below the candel (uptrend) while both EMA’S (200-50) are showing under the candels so that means it will continue goes up which means not good with your holding postion for the Gold so why u r happy now my firend??

I am no trying to make u upset by what i am saying or sending u a bad news no all what i want is to confirm what i already understand from your post conceing the new SYSTEM

Regards,

Akram

1218

Actually - I just watched the video again - and I’ve gotta tell you man - there is NO ‘fuking way’ I’d be on a boat with all those guys if SHE was waiting at home for me - that’s for 'fuking sure’ man - no matter WHAT country or far away land I had to conquer!!! (‘cracking myself up again’)!!!

Now I AM going to bed!!!

Regards,

Dale.

1219

Sorry Akram, just got your post now.

Yes - I know what you’re saying - BUT - like I said earlier - you WILL always lose on your last position at the end of a trend i.e. when the trend reversal comes - and this COULD be the ‘end of the trend’ if you ‘get my drift’ (at least - ‘here’s to hoping’ my friend). I refuse to take another loss on Gold - it’s cost me FAR too much over the past couple of months. I’ll keep ‘propping my account up’ with money from somewhere to hold onto this position until it’s either at break even or profit - even if it goes to $2000 an ounce tomorrow!!! I know that’s immature and bad trading but this has become personal!!! It’s GOT to correct sometime!!!

Regards,

Dale.

1220

LOL Dale, I think you said my name like 50 times in that post.

No, I didn’t check out the tunes yet. I will though.

And yes, Boondock Saints is a good movie.

1221

Ok Dale

I have a chart for you to look at with my utmost technical analytic skill. It poses a question and yet answers itself. My study of sorts into the system. Read the chart and I’d like to hear what you have to say. I think I got the point to the system, but just want to receive clarification.

Thanks

CHFJPY.jpg700×560 67.5 KB

1222

Hello Rob,

What makes you think I actually know what I’M talking about???

Well - let’s just say I’m trying my best to know.

I looked at the chart and - just one thing - don’t make the mistake that I usually make myself (and then have to remind myself that I’m looking at the thing the wrong way and then things are either not as good or as bad as I thought they were initially):

Remember to look at the PRICES of the bars NOT where the Parabolic SAR dots are appearing (or at the Parabolic SAR arc). At first glance - if you’re looking at the Parabolic SAR dots or arc - it sure does ‘appear’ that you’ve missed out on a HUMUNGOUS trade during that ‘Parabolic SAR uptrend’ but if you look closely at the PRICES above where those dots were appearing - you’ve really not missed THAT many pip’s at all. (I know that MAY be stating the obvious to YOU but I DO KNOW FOR SURE that there will be many ‘new traders’ that will look at the Parabolic SAR dots or arc and think I’m talking nonsense and keeping them out of too many ‘good looking’ trades but it’s the prices above the dots that matter not where the dots physically appear on the screen. In your example - yes - you would have missed pip’s no question (not many though as previously stated) - and - if you’re now working with the MA’s you would have got into that trade very late - but at least you would have made SOME pip’s and the trade had a far greater probability of going in your favour.

That’s actually the ‘key’ here: what I’m attempting to ensure is that you get into the highest probablility trades more often than not and from what I can see that’s where the EMA’s are ‘aceing it’ for us. We KNOW for a fact that (even with MT4 backtesting) if you ignored EVERYTHING and JUST traded ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR you WOULD come out with a profit in the long run but you’d have to make it through HUGE drawdowns along the way to get to your end goal and, if like most of us (including myself this morning THANKS AGAIN TO THE FUCING GOLD PRICE THIS MORNING), unless you have an account with a HUMUNGOUS amount of free margin EVEN this indicator will 'feed you your arehole on a plate’).

I’ve added to your chart to explain better what I’m getting at (sorry to ‘mess up’ your chart - they are very nice charts I must say - very ‘clean’ looking).

Look it’s up to you. Like I said before - you CAN base trades on the 50 EMA alone i.e. it’s obviously MUCH faster to react than the 200 EMA. In other words - if the prices start closing above the 50 EMA you only take long Parabolic SAR trades and if the prices start closing below the 50 EMA you only take short Parabolic SAR trades - it’s up to you - and it’s just question of ‘how sure’ you want to be about the trend.

(Actually - just for fun - somebody on one of the Mercedes Benz forums has this as a ‘signature’: 'Speed is a question of money. How fast do you wanna go?). I found it amusing anyway.

Regards,

Dale.

CHFJPY.jpg700×560 78.4 KB

1223

i am now using bollinger bands + psar. the rules are rather simple, but bases too much on feelings i think. i am trying to fix the PSAR weakness on ranging market with Bolinger bands.

problem is, i have to “feel” whether the market is trending or ranging. (usualy i am feeling wrong, so i will probably do the opposite of what i am feeling, or something like that)

when it is ranging, i will more use the bollinger bands, i will buy when its below the midline and having a bullish candle, and sell when its above the midline.
when it is trending(when i feel it is going to trend) i am going to use the PSAR.

TP’s are also rather simple, when it is ranging, TP is at the outter bolinger bands, when it is trending, i dont have a TP, i trail the SL on the PSAR dots.

when i assume it is ranging and i am wrong, the SL is at the purple outer bolinger band if you see my chart. i am going to stop and reverse at that outer band with the SL being at the last PSAR, and am going to stop and reverse again when that SL is being hit again etc

when i assume it is trending and i am wrong, the SL is at the center bolinger band. i am not going to stop and reverse if i am wrong in this case, i will wait for the next entry. because i think the small profit between the midline and the outer bolinger band isnt worth the risk.

lets see how this works out. so far maybe by lady luck, from my 1800Euro i had last week, i lost down to 1000Euro, and starting a few hours ago, its up by about 4.5%, so 1045Euro right now.

i am still looking for an indicator, which helps me determine the future whether it trends or ranges, the ADX you mentioned dale, seems to be lagging behind too much for me, so it doesn’t really help me predict

when you look at my charts, i entered around 9:25, when price was still below the midline, i came back about half hour later and it went up like hell, lucky i didnt set a take profit at the bolinger bands at that time, or i would have been out of the game quickly, around 15 minutes later that would be, when that blue big thing pierced through all my bolingerbands

good luck everyone, may all our systems succeed and may we all stay in the game! i hope this week we are going to get some of the money back we lost last week.

regards
Charles

wtf.jpg700×475 60.1 KB

1224

Hi Charles, and thanks for the post and input (sorry - I know this is a terrible thing to say - but I’m glad I’m not the only one that had a bad week last week)!!!

You know - I also just had a thought about how to determine whether the market is trending or ranging:

Sometime back I posted a message which contained details of what I refer to as ‘Akrams Alligator’. It’s just three simple EMA’s (or SMA’s - can’t remember) BUT when all three lines are intertwined it’s a pretty good indication that the market is range bound (that’s what Bill Williams’ ‘REAL’ Alligator was designed to tell you - amongst other things). Anyway - ‘Akrams Alligator’ or Bill Williams’ Alligator - react pretty fast (unfortuanately I have to agree with you that ADX does not react quickly enough - not on forex pairs anyway).

Again - like you - I’ve been looking at Bollinger Bands (as I mentioned earlier) but they just don’t ‘do it’ for me.

The more I look at things - the more sure that I am - that using EMA’s - for what we’re trying to accomplish - are ‘the things’ to use.

I realise that you’re trying to get our (get a) system to work in a range bound market but is it all that important (if it is then - just as a matter of interest - I’d like to know why you feel that way)? Statistically speaking - I know (am led to believe) that the markets only trend something like 20% or 30% of the time. However - and this is a ‘BIG’ however - that’s on any one single instrument and on any one single timeframe. In other words - what I’m saying is this: if you have enough tradeable instruments (pairs) - SOMEWHERE on SOME TIMEFRAME on SOME INSTRUMENT (PAIR) there is a trend. See what I’m trying to say? If you are only going to ‘stick with’ one or two pairs and need to (or want to) trade ONLY those two pairs then yes - I would imagine - you’d have to find a way to be able to trade in a range bound AND a trending market otherwise you’d have very few trades.

By the way - I’ve pretty much started ‘staying away’ from my ‘exotic’ pairs at the moment - not that our system does not work on them BUT because of the spread and the pip values the potential losses are just not something I’d like to have to deal with right now (although if the truth be told - ANYTHING that I touch that has to do with the GBP is also killing me at the moment).

Anyway - I wish you luck in your quest - and if you do find something that works a large percentage of the time in a range bound market - then I’m sure you’ll let us know - and if I (we) can help in anyway then you know we’re here.

Regards,

Dale.

1225

You know - I know I’m ‘banging on’ about these EMA’s - but I’ll tell you - it’s like I ‘found a new friend’ (‘Say hello to my nu friend’ - ‘BAM’ - Scarface)!!!

While WAITING for trades (and YES I’m WAITING AND WAITING) I spend a good deal of the time looking at the charts and something that just keeps ‘jumping out at me’ is the potential of the EMA’s!!!

I mean (and NO ROB - this is NOT YET ANOTHER SYSTEM - JUST AN OBSERVATION - although if the truth be told it might as well be ‘yet another system’) if you went long when the 8 EMA crossed up and over the 21 EMA (you people are STILL ignoring that message - you’ll be sorry I promise you) and the price had just closed above the cross and you stayed in the trade until the 8 EMA crossed down and over the 21 EMA you’d STILL be in the money - and - with Parabolic SAR - you’d probably lock profits in earlier i.e. before the cross down. This ‘play’ seems to have HUMUNGOUS potential on the 30 minute charts.

I’ve attached a portion of 30 minute chart of the Nasdaq 100 (futures) from a few days back - take a look.

Regards,

Dale.

nasdaq 100 futures 8 ema 21 ema psar.jpg700×477 71.6 KB

1226

AND - I’ll tell you something ELSE for nothing - at least with the EMA’s - on the shorter timeframes - you don’t have to wait for days or weeks on end to find out that you ‘fu*ked up’ - you find out pretty quickly!!!

Regards,

Dale.

1227

Is it just my imagination or is the USD getting some support from somewhere???

I see the Indices going down, Gold going down, and a lot more ‘green flashes’ next to USD/??? than ‘red flashes’.

Dale.

1228

Just posting thoughts WHILE I WAIT!!!

This is another ‘strategy’ or ‘aid’ or whatever you want to call it (NOT ANOTHER SYSTEM ROB) detailed in one of my books which I’m currently ‘evaluating’:

Unfortuanately - I don’t know of many brokers that have this (the only one of my brokers that has it is GCI).

It’s the ‘tick’ (basically the same as your ‘normal’ charts but the timeframe is a ‘tick’ i.e. every time a trade is done and there is price change you get an update on the chart.

Why in the world does this mean anything you say???

WELL - something we ALL tend to forget about or overlook is the fact that when there’s no movement or volatility in the market this is usually the time when you’re getting raped by your broker and / or the floor traders i.e. all that’s happening is that these ‘monkeys’ are trading stuff between themselves on the floor and there is nothing coming from outside to move the market.

By watching the ‘ticks’ I can tell whether or not there is ‘outside interest’ coming in to the market or not i.e. when the number of ticks or rather the frequency of the ticks start to climb then I know that there is ‘outside interest’ coming into the markets and that it’s not just the brokers or floor traders trying to ‘fu*k with me (us)’. Once the ticks start to climb it’s like a freight train starting to roll and there is nothing that the brokers or floor traders can to do stop it. In other words - at this stage - the market has momentum and volatility - both being needed in order for us to be profitable!!! And - inevitably - when these ticks start to climb - a trend of one sort or another will start!!! Get the picture??? Use it - don’t use it!!!

(By the way - I cannot take credit for the idea - it’s discussed in detail in John F. Carters book ‘Mastering The Trade’ except that he has the ‘real deal’ tick charts i.e. the NYSE ticks i.e. this chart shows the number of up ticks (buys) and the number of down ticks (sells) of the NYSE as a whole at any given time and by working on the nett difference between the number of up ticks and the number of down ticks you can pretty much tell where the market is going i.e. up or down or when it’s gathering momentum - which is a good place to get in - or whether it’s losing momentum - in which case it’s a good time to get out)!!! Unfortuanately - you need a platform like TradeStation for this info and you have to subscribe to different ‘packages’ to get this information - not cheap!!! It is - however - interesting to see how ‘the pros’ do it!!!

Regards,

Dale.

1229

By the way Charles,

Take a look at the attached chart.

It’s GBP/JPY 30 minutes.

What’s important to note is the indicator at the bottom. It’s called the ‘Bollinger Squeeze’ indicator.

As I understand it when the blue lines are appearing the market is range bound and the Bollinger Bands have narrowed and the idea is (I think) that you take a trade when the next line on the indicator is either green or red (long or short) i.e. a ‘breakout trade’ which is what Bollinger Band are supposed to indicate for you (one of the problems with Bollinger Bands has always been ‘how narrow is narrow’ when you’re waiting for the breakout and this indicator ‘appears’ to solve the problem).

I’m not sure how it could help you with our system but I thought I’d post it for you anyway - might ‘spark’ something off.

Also - I’ve only found it for MT4 - and I don’t think you’re using MT4.

Dale.

PS - Don’t worry about all the other ‘sh*t’ on the chart - that’s just me ‘playing’ (although the Bollinger Bands are there as well to ‘demonstrate’).

bollinger sqeeze indicator for mt4.jpg700×525 75 KB

1230

sorry, i must have misssed this post. i don’t remember anymore what my those other charts looked like, the only thing i noticed as i took a short look at all the charts were those with JPY, the stochs were telling to sell, but like i said i don’t believe the stochs in a trending market anymore, they failed for me or i fail to read them properly :frowning:

1231

@Akrams Aligator, i remember them, the problem is i can’t set them up on Oanda charts, because the MA’s need to be delayed(offset) by a few candles as i remember correctly, so i did not get the chance to look into it further. will do so on my MT4 charts asap.

@why trading rangebound or trend
for half year now, i have been on the lookout for trend trades always, and i always chicken out when i enter and then things trend for a long time and then i exit with a loss, just to see a moment later that things would have gone my way if i wouldnt have closed the position.
i am trying to understand and trade ranges now to fight this fear in a ranging market, and on the same time make profit while in a range.
i believe if i can start to understand range & trend markets better, and also predict them with a certain probability, i will make consitent profits without having to wait for a market to trend in a direction again.

you said that 20-30% are trends on any pair on any timeframe, i have to disagree with that, on lower timeframes, like M15 or M5, i noticed while watching at weekend, i would have made more profit trading PSAR the opposite way because most of the time it was ranging. maybe i am wrong though…didn’t look in every chart, just mainly EUR/USD.

though even if you are right, if 20-30% are trends, wouldn’t it be nice to catch some profit on the other 70-80%? am i too greedy? :smiley:

Charles

1232

Yes - I agree with you that it would be nice to make money in a ranging market as well - no question.

But you misunderstand me. One pair - one timeframe - range bound 70% to 80% - true - but I’m sure that at any given time - out of 44 pairs (even if you take out the ‘exotics’ you’re probably left with let’s say 30 pairs) - somewhere - on some timeframe - there will be a trend (and I’ll ‘wager’ more than one).

‘Akrams Alligator’ was just a series of EMA’s or SMA’s (I did not worry about the shift i.e. Bill Wiliams’ ‘real’ Alligator uses the ‘shift’ or ‘offset into the future’ to try and ‘predict’ the future direction but we’re not really interested in that - well - we are - but you know what I mean - all we’re interested in is checking for the existence of a trend or not and ‘Akrams Alligator’ ‘appeared’ to be proficient in indicating the existence of a trend or not).

Regards,

Dale.

1233

Nice to see it’s only Charles and I working today!!!

Dale.