Parabolic SAR - that's all!

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1234

I just noticed something nice today by the way (Rob - another ‘strategy’).

Well - I’ve been holding on to my ‘Gold loss’ for the past couple of days (it’s now just over $8K) and of course it’s just been ‘chewing up’ margin. Then I forgot that at Delta (it’s the only broker I know of where you can do this) I can ‘sell off’ all except 1 lot and not have to take the loss there and then i.e. hang on to it until the correction comes this freeing up margin.

In other words - I had 1 position consisting of 28 lots on Gold - and that 1 position consisting of 28 lots is (was) showing a loss of just over $8K. So - what I’ve done is ‘sell off’ 27 lots which has freed up all but $76 of margin (from over $2K) without taking the loss NOW. In other words - the $8K loss will just ‘hang around’ there until the reversal or correction comes - in which case I would then repurchase the 27 lots that I just rid myself of and - there you go - break even - or profit. At my other two brokers I would have to have taken the loss on those lots immediately.

Like I said - another ‘strategy’ - you know - to ‘file somewhere in the back of your mind for future use’ or something like that!!!

Regards,

Dale.

1235

Dale

If the forex market is computerized between the banks, etc then there is no trading floor. How does this “ticks” business apply to forex?

Could you point me in the direction of the message regarding the 8/21 EMA 30M system. On your suggestion I’d like to look it over but I can’t find it.

Thanks
Chicago Joe

1236

Hey Chicago Joe,

There isn’t another message detailing the 8/21 EMA 30 minute system - it’s just an observation that I made earlier is all (and I must say that I’m using it today with great success I might add).

As far as forex is concerned - yes - you are right (I trade stocks and the indices as well and these are still floor traded to a greater or lesser degree instrument dependant so that’s why I mentioned it) - BUT - having said that - even although forex is traded electronically you still need momentum and volatility to move price so the ticks would be indicative of an increase in both momentum and volatility (in my opinion) even on forex. Put it this way - it’s when the markets are ‘dead in the water’ that we get killed i.e. when the market spends most of it’s time trading in a tight range and try as we might we get ‘nailed’!!!

Regards,

Dale.

1237

Dale,

no man u r not the only 2 today as for me it is EID so i am having a vaction from 2 days ago and i just came back from my vaction had lots of fun and my Vodafone connection was connecting through GPRS not 3G so it was dam slow but i was watching u guys while u posted your new rules which i am trading now with on mini lots to make sure it is ok.

Dale i really don’t know why the hell u r posting today alot!! isn’t it enough for u to cray rather than posting??? The gold is getting u down big time!! (i am joking i am so happy u don’t care much about it!!)

ok my third postion that i opened 2 weeks back basied on our first rule PSAR ONLLY i got stoped but i was locked in profit so it is not good but not bad as well as i amaged to get some pips on my way!!

I opened 3 mini lots postions with gold ,silver and EUR/GBP i went long last night based on both EMA’S and PSAR and they show profit the 3 of them

Regards,

Akram

1238

Hello depaterso, I have been following this thread since it came out.I hope things are getting better on your upset streak. I was wondering about the 8/31 EMA system.What other indicators you use with this? I have been trying to go with the candlestick, S/R lines, way.but much luck to you over there my friend keep your head up and be positive.Goodtrading!!!:slight_smile:

1239

Seriously Dale, while reading your post, the rusty nuts and bolts in my mind actually fit together to form a working machine and I said, oooooh that makes so much more sense! Of course I wasn’t looking at the actual price! :rolleyes:

Thanks Dale for ‘YET ANOTHER CLARIFICATION!’

1240

No problem Rob.

Like I said - I ALWAYS do that when I’m looking at a chart!!! You know how many times I said ‘Sh*t - look at the trade I just missed’ because the Parabolic SAR arc was showing this l-o-n-g beautiful arc (it’s actually called a ‘parabola’ from the French in case you’re all interested) - until you actually examine the prices that formed the ‘parabola’ - and then you don’t feel so bad!!!

jlmac32, thanks for the good and kind wishes. Yes - things are going much better - because I’m managing to ‘STICK WITH THINGS’ and keep it together again!!!

As far as the 8/21 EMA ‘system’ is concerned (sorry Rob - looks like it’s ‘taking a life on of it’s own’) - no - just go long when the 8 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA and the price closes above the cross and stay long until stopped out by the 21 EMA OR stay long until the next cross down (most of the time this is better because sometimes you’ll get stopped out by the 21 EMA BUT the EMA’s don’t actually reverse and then you’re out of the trade when you could still be in). Obviously - the opposite applies for short trades. You COULD use Parabolic SAR for stops and take profit - which really is EXACTLY the same as our ‘new’ more ‘refined’ system (you know - the ‘version’ with the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA) i.e. only take long Parabolic SAR trades when the 8 EMA has crossed above the 21 EMA and the price has closed above the cross and then use Parabolic SAR for stops and take profit. Again - obviously - the opposite applies for short trades. That’s it!!!

Akram - I WAS panicking earlier today because of Gold - but since I remembered how a ‘REAL’ broker works I’m OK i.e. I’m holding on to the loss until the correction and it can’t get any worse now thanks to my wonderful Delat and with this new ‘EMA thingy’ of ours - I can’t go wrong I don’t think!!!

By the way - THANKS TO THOSE OF YOU WHO WENT TO THE TROUBLE OF LISTENING TO MY HONEY’S NEW SONGS - ALL THREE OF YOU!!! You’ve done me proud - whoever you are!!! As for the rest of you . . .

Later.

Dale.

Edit: I attached a chart to demonstrate ‘EMA Power’!!!

Another edit: Last chart for the day - Gold and ‘EMA Power’!!! (I unfortuanately could not take any of these trades because the moment I do I have to stop and reverse my 1 open position / lot and have to then realise the loss and then hope like crazy we go to $8K which is a chance I’m not willing to take).

Last edit: Looks like the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are getting ‘a good spanking’ today - and - thanks to ‘EMA Power’ and Parabolic SAR - as I type - I’m up $4.8K!!! OK - yes - today IS an exception - but hey - after last week (actually after the last four or five or six weeks) - IT’S ABOUT TIME!!! Take a look at the Dow (current). I love it when people panic!!! (Yeh - I’m back on form and ‘full of it’ today)!!! Finland here I come!!! (Fu*k - I’d better call Cristina as well sometime tomorrow to make sure they can make it for our party at the end of the month)!!!

VERY last edit: I just had a ‘scary’ thought: what if we have INDEED now found ‘The Holy Grail’ of ‘systems’??? What am I going to do with my time???

GOOD NIGHT EVERYONE!!! HOPE YOU’VE HAD A GOOD DAY (AS GOOD - IF NOT BETTER THAN MINE)!!! WE DESERVE IT!!!

gbpusd 30 minutes 8 ema 21 ema psar.jpg700×517 84.9 KB

gold 30 minutes 8 ema 21 ema psar.jpg700×576 100 KB

dow futures 8 ema 21 ema 30 minutes.jpg700×551 79.4 KB

1241

To try out the new rules, I was able to get into a bunch of trades last night. I was having fun just going through and picking them all… not paying much attention in my newbish mind to the margin. I got into XAG/USD and oh god, its insane. That gold is crazy!

So now I’m telling myself to stay in these and see what happens over the next few days. Will be fun to see… of course I doubt I’d be saying that if I was live!

1242

Oh yea, I forgot I was going to ask…

What would be the benefits of using the 200/50 EMA over the 8/21 or the other way around?

Hm… maybe I need to find myself a good definition of this indicator to get a good idea of whats going on. Could you point me in the direction of a good explanation… or if you can give me one yourself?

Thanks man

1243

Hey Dale,

I haven’t had a chance to comment, but your decision to follow Moving Average crosses mirrors my own. I’m still working out which TF to use and which crosses to follow - 25/50, 5/10, now 8/21 - but it’s good to see someone else in the same boat. Personally, I’ve been disappointed with the paucity of trades the PSAR method has produced. It didn’t seem to work on shorter TF, and the dailies take too long for me to profit much (I’m too risk adverse per trade).

Are you using a momentum indicator to filter your trades? I’d like to stay out of a ranging market, but I’m not sure the best way to do that. I’ve been looking for H1 and M15 crosses that move in the same direction as the daily to make my trades and that seems to be fairly successful. “The trend is your friend.” I’ve also thought about reading up on price action, candlestick patterns, or just measuring the degree of the MA line to determine entries. (For example, if the 8MA crosses the 21MA at a 45* angle, double the usual entry amount.)

Zeus (still practice trading, but thinking about cracking open the wallet.)

1244

As far as the 8/21 EMA ‘system’ is concerned (sorry Rob - looks like it’s ‘taking a life on of it’s own’) - no - just go long when the 8 EMA crosses above the 21 EMA and the price closes above the cross and stay long until stopped out by the 21 EMA OR stay long until the next cross down (most of the time this is better because sometimes you’ll get stopped out by the 21 EMA BUT the EMA’s don’t actually reverse and then you’re out of the trade when you could still be in). Obviously - the opposite applies for short trades. You COULD use Parabolic SAR for stops and take profit - which really is EXACTLY the same as our ‘new’ more ‘refined’ system (you know - the ‘version’ with the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA) i.e. only take long Parabolic SAR trades when the 8 EMA has crossed above the 21 EMA and the price has closed above the cross and then use Parabolic SAR for stops and take profit. Again - obviously - the opposite applies for short trades. That’s it!!!

Hello depaterso, Thank you for you post.I was just wondering where the 50-200 EMA comes into play.I am not sure where I had once seen it on this post…long post!!!

1245

Yeh - OK - well - I have not made it to bed yet!!!

Hey Zeus, Rob - how’s it going?

I actually think it was one of your previous posts (I think it was yours Zeus) that ‘rekindled’ the idea of using MA’s (EMA’s) and then over the weekend, when I started going through my trading books again after last weeks ‘fiasco’ (in particular the book ‘Mastering The Trade’ by John F. Carter), I started having a VERY serious look at them again and that’s how I (we) have arrived at this point.

Today - I’ve not used ANYTHING else other than the EMA’s (to be honest I’ve been using Parabolic SAR as confirmation as opposed to the ‘main’ indicator)!!!

As far as ranging markets is concerned - what I think I see is that when the market is range bound - and you’re consistently following the 8 EMA and the 21 EMA - your losses are not that big i.e. your losses for the most part appear to be limited to not much more than the spread - which is a far cry from the losses that result from using Parabolic SAR in a range bound market!!!

On the other hand - on the indices today I used ‘tick charts’ which are really telling you nothing other than the fact that there IS momentum and volatility in the markets (indices) so if that counts as a ‘filter’ then I suppose I was using one!!!

I have seen a system or two in the past that relies on (or takes into account) the ‘angle of attack’ of the EMA cross and the actual ‘angle’ of the EMA’s themselves - perfectly valid in my opinion.

As far as price action and candlestick patterns and stuff like that is concerned - I’ve tried - and it’s always turned to ‘sh*t’ for me - so I stay away for sure!!!

jlmac27:

As far as the 50 EMA and 200 EMA is concerned: all I can tell you is that they are ‘key’ levels on the daily charts. In other words - the ‘pros’ will look at these levels for support or resistance (50 EMA for short term resistance or support and 200 EMA for long term resistance or suport as I understand it). Again - in other words - even although we may be seeing reversals or corrections on the shorter timeframes (and even on the daily timeframe as well) using the 8 EMA and 21 EMA (or any other EMA you choose) it does not mean that the instrument or pair has actually reversed it’s trend. Does that make sense??? Whether or not it matters for our purposes only time will tell. On the other hand - let’s face it - the larger the EMA - the less ‘whipsaws’ and false signals you’re likely to get. I suppose you could be EXTREMELY (even OVERLEY) cautious and look at the daily timeframe, see where the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA are headed, and then take only Parabolic SAR entry signals or trades in the same direction as those EMA’s but using the 8 EMA and 21 EMA for confirmation. I mean you COULD get REALLY carried away with all of these EMA’s as well i.e. you could ONLY take trades when the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA and the 8 EMA and the 21 EMA are all going in the same direction!!! See what I mean. So far the 8 EMA and the 21 EMA seem to be working well for me anyway i.e. they respond fast enough to not keep you out of good trades and they are slow enough to keep you from getting ‘whipsawed’ every two minutes. I would imagine that a pair of EMA’s could be ‘tweaked’ particular to an instrument or pair (I’ve noticed, for example, that the 8 EMA and 21 EMA would NOT produce very good results on my beloved ???/ZAR pairs for example i.e. very high spread and very high volatility but this particular combination of EMA’s works absolutely flawlessly on the indices, Gold, and most of the other ‘little’ forex trades that I this out on today i.e. on the ‘normal’ forex pairs). I suppose it could also be an ongoing ‘study’. Imagine if you could produce a list of different EMA combinations that were specific to each of the 44 currency pairs that I have available to me to trade!!! You could sell something like that - for money!!!

Just one thing though: as I’m sure you will have gathered or will most certainly experience in the future - the EMA’s are not ‘magic bullets’ i.e. they will get violated sometimes and the result will be drawdown or a loss. If this did not happen and they were 100% accurate 100% of the time we would not HAVE any other indicators would we!!! Just bear that in mind (I know it may sound like I’m stating the obvious here but I maybe also just need to remind MYSELF of this fact). I mean - today - every trade has been a good one (based on the 8 EMA and the 21 EMA) but that does not mean that this ‘trend’ will continue forever and a day i.e. there will be losses sometimes - it’s the ‘nature of the beast’!!!

Regards,

Dale.

Edit: Actually Rob - you make a good point: when are you lot going to open live accounts??? It’s not fair that I’m the only one that ‘sh*ts themselves’ on a daily basis!!!

1246

Dale,

I have been “peeking” into this thread for some time now.

I have to say, your mindset seems f***ed-up to the EXTREME sometimes!

You seem to bounce from one theory to another, like some unlucky football thats landed in a minefield and is being blown around randomly…and obviously it doesn’t do much for the health of the football!!..as it hasn’t been so healthy for your bank account.

Now, please understand i am not knocking you here, what i hope to achieve by this is not to cut you down in anyway…more to help you regain your focus.

At this point i want to introduce you to John Forbes Nash.
He was a very clever guy with schizophrenia…a mathmetician…they made a film about him with Russell Crowe…you may know it…called A Beautiful Mind.

John Nash saw mathematic patterns in everything…the way birds flocked on the ground, the way words were constructed within a sentance… to the different ways people walked.

Now the majority of his theories were to have no proven merit, but regularly throughout his career, he had his successes. These normally came at times when was able to absolutely focus on one thing, one theory…all this despite being hospitalised on several occasions for his illness.

In 1994 he won the Nobel Prize in Economics, despite the fact he was still mentally ill and despite the fact he still saw mathematical patterns in everything he looked at…he was Quoted as saying "They are still all there…but i just choose to ignore them these day’s"
The reason was that he had figured out that he was at his most productive and successful when he concentrated on one theory and ignored all other distractions.

Now i am not saying you talk to pink elephants, nor am i saying you are a genius, but i think there are definately similarities between the two of you…

You have had previous and regular sucesses. (Stocks, Own Business, Family)
You have also had your mad-moments of seeing “patterns” in everything.(Forex)

So were you to take a leaf out of Mr Nash’s book…and concentrate on the theories/systems that you know work (however small and insignificant they may at first seem) i think you will stop having so many losses and, inevitably start to win, well and consistantly.

Your history shows that you are not a stupid man…perhaps impatient and overdemanding…but these traits are also attributed to lifes winners, they are just CONTROLLED and used with caution.

So the moral of this story is simple, i think you will get there in the end with Trading…as Nash did with his equilibria theory…what will make you or break you is if you can find the focus…before a margin call finds you!

P.s.

I think you are heading in the right direction with the idea of linking up EMA 8& 21 with your Parabolic. (Mind you i WOULD say that as the author of the EMA Step lol)

P.P.S

Did you know that John Nash hand a major hand in the theory of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations???..Ironic huh?

Good luck Mate.

1247

Thank you agian dpaterso,I see what you are saying.Yeah nothing is for sure or everyone would be a billionaire at this LOL!You do have a great way of looking at things your the type of person that will make it I believe.People listen, just look at this thread!!! Well thanks for your time agian, and keep those wheels turning!

1248

What time frames you been messing with dpaterso? The 1H seems pretty good. I checked out that 3 ducks system on babypips,I have been playing with different time frames to get overall trend, and entry/exit points.I think this EMA 8/21 is about at the right place considering whipsaws and getting in early enough seems like a good balance.I am really new to this onlt 4 months into any kind of trading or looking at charts for that matter a fresh forex virgin as of 4 months ago LOL!My brain is like a sponge right now,I will absorb everybit of knowledge I can read or hear right now.And let my experiences lead me in the right direction to find my style and place in this HUGE ,chaotic, fast paced, no love market!Good trading!!

1249

Dale:
I really should not laugh so much since there’s a language barrier and all, but after feeliing your pain for the last week or so I had to laugh when I saw this series of interactions.

I’m one for extreme politeness and all, but i am sitting here at my laptop at 2:00 in the am, raining outside and all at 2000 feet above sea level.

And I’m laughing.

This thread is the best. First we analyse PSAR. Then we analyse Dale. Then we have a wonderful newbie who either didn’t bother to read the thread or didn’t understand it and shares a completely revolutionary system which is what we started with in the first place. This is priceless.

Somebody ought to write a book. Sell the movie rights and share the money!

And please guys I dont mean to be mean but I needed a little comic relief.

Glendon

1250

Wow, there’s been a lot of goings on in my absence. :eek:

1251

OK GUYS,

what i am doing now is that i am following the EMA’S 8-21 AND waiting for the news for more volitility and confirmation and i go on buy or sell to day there are lots of news so i am using the tec. and the fundementail for sure u will never ever miss the trade if u do that so i a trying to get my account back to life althought i am still far away but at least i am gaining ,gaining and gaining slowlly but surelly

OH MY GOD i hope to get some recovery before my heart stops with the news i will tell u guys u r heart will really stops coz it is going up and down left and right ,back and forward!!!

Regards,

Akram

1252

By the way

Today is the intrest rate for Canada and the expectations is the same like the previous ones which is 4.5%

So what i am thinking about is that if it is going to be less than the expectations and with the support of the EMA’S rules then this trade is lovely secured one to have if nothing happened lik that then don’t u ever touch it or else u will get burned!! and am telling u guys it is is going to be less than what it is already u will see somthing happing huge here

But again that doesn’t mean that u will pick USD/CAD don’t do that coz USA has some news to be released as well so what i recomened it pick the GBP/CAD or EUR/CAD

Dale i am not taking to u now!! coz i know as a fact when u reading that now u want to break your lap top over my head as u hate news!!

Regards,

Akram

1253

Good morning everyone, and how is everyone today (I’m getting a late start this morning because we had another power failure here AGAIN this morning - this is REALLY getting out of hand).

Anyway - maurizio77 - thanks for that post - much appreciated. You know - it’s funny that you brought all of that up this morning and I’ll tell you why: it’s been worrying me lately that the elephants don’t answer me back i.e. they just seem to ignore me. As a matter of fact I’ve been having the same problem with Tarja as well i.e. she never responds when I talk to her and she could be standing right next to me sometimes and it is as if she cannot hear me or something (I’ve actually developed quite a complex about this). Even my Chrysler does not respond when I talk to it. Anyway - that’s a ‘load off’ - you’ve cleared it all up for me - thanks. At least I know it’s not me!!! (Does this REALLY mean that Tarja is not standing next to me right now)??? YOU’VE SPOILED MY LIFE YOU BASTARD!!!

OK - I’d better watch it here. You KNOW I’m only kidding??? Right???

Actually - (I think) you and I have corresponded before on YOUR thread (but that could be my mind playing tricks on me - I’m not too sure now).

Anyway - I take everything that you said as a compliment (as any ‘schizo’ ‘worth their salt’ would)!!!

As Rob and I discussed earlier at some point (at least I THINK we had a discussion) I am an ‘EXTREME’ person. Patience has never been one of my ‘strong points’ (although this business is ‘hell bent’ on making me aware of it’s merits I’ll tell you). On the other hand I am one of those people that will pursue something (a course of action) until it either kills me, causes me to go insane, I lose interest, or (in this case) makes me a very wealthy man or puts me out on the street (whichever comes first)!!!

Actually - my best friend of nearly 22 years has ‘summed me up’ in one single word: ‘RELENTLESS’!!! I think she’s got it right and I do see it as one of my strong points!!! Believe it or not (most times) it’s stood me in good stead!!!

OK - now ‘let’s get fu*kin crazy’ here for a minute (Ozzy quote):

I know I have ‘jumped around’ quite a bit since starting this thread. Like I said before I think the absolute worst thing that happened to me was making that ‘killing’ at or around the end of July. It ‘lulled’ me into thinking that I had indeed found ‘the perfect indicator’ and I could not understand how 'little ‘ol me’ had discovered it’s true potential and why nobody else (everybody else) was not just using Parabolic SAR. Well as we all know my ‘windfall’ was just that i.e. just a ‘windfall’. So I’ve now spent the better part of three months trying to see what it’s (Parabolic SAR’s) shortcomings are and there are a few let’s face it. Unfortuanately, like everyone else, I do not (no longer) have the money to pursue something ‘relentlessley’ to either ‘prove to myself that I was right all along’ or see ‘just how wrong I was’. I therefore (now) try and adapt as quickly as possible (you know - ‘adapt or die’). It is also important to note that a lot of the time I’m just putting my thoughts down as and when they come to me. They (my thoughts) may not always be ‘valid’ and I suppose for the most part they are ‘impulsive’ (another ‘wonderful’ character trait of mine) but I do believe that in doing this I will either ‘spark’ something off in myself or in someone else and the end result will be a ‘robust’ trading ‘system’ which, by the way, I really think we have finally have (unless I change my mind again of course)!!!

Anyway - thanks again for the post and the compliments (seriously). You know I’m only ‘taking the mickey out of you’ above. I have had a look at your ‘EMA Step System’ and I see (believe) it’s great and is working for a lot of people.

I have to go now (I’ve got to make Tarja coffee and check my positions and - oh - I nearly forgot - I’ve got to go feed ‘Dumbo’ as well).

I see ‘Just Joan’ is back - where have you been???

Rob - you should be enjoying this IMMENSELY!!!

Glendon - I’m glad that this thread serves SOME purpose at least!!!

Thanks everyone - we’ll correspond shortly!!!

Regards,

Dale.