Part Time trading journal

[Pip-Skywalker]

My CHF/JPY got stopped out in massive volume, and i mean MASSIVE!!

Have a look

Even if i placed the SL above the high, it still would be a loss, so I am not much concerned about that.

What I am pissed off at, is my lack of discipline.
I put the pending order before the candle closed, like an hour before, and then it was looking really nice.
Bu the time the candle closed, it was already triggered, and it didn’t look like a pinbar, more like a mutated pinbar. If i saw that, i wouldn’t have entered at all.
I guess, all the rules must be respected at all time…the force is not strong with me sometimes.
Any ways…if i see something tonight i will share.

[Pip-Skywalker]

I did talk about my EUR/CAD long on the W, previously, but now i see that I never shared a chart.
Well, now is a great time to do that, since it just went in to profits, and because it’s been such a pain in the ass, I decided to put in a specific target policy, and squeeze whatever pips are left on this pair.

p.s: I didn’t mark the entry signal, but it’s the big pinbar candle (4-th candle from right to left)

Here is my trade plan visually, and also explained bellow the chart.

Position Details:

Type: Long
Entry:1.55802
Stop Loss: 1.54310
TP1: 1.57498
TP2: 58892

Once price hits my first TP at 169 pips, i will cash out 50% of my LS and move the SL to BE, and then will set my final target which is 309 pips and let the remaining 50% run to it’s final target if possible.

I’ve analyzed the Monthly and Daily charts, and the bias is b=pretty bullish, so either I am crazy, or this position should yield me a solid 1-1.7 R.R
Some of you might think 1.7 return is nothing to write home about. But bare in mind, I am risking 3%, this means I am potentially looking to make 4.6% return on investment in just one trade

Let’s see what happens

[Pip-Skywalker]

Quick update on the EUR/CAD - W

Price went 130+ pips in profits, and then retraced heavily.
Trying not to judge or be mad.
Here is what the chart looks like, but on the daily. I will explain why the Daily and not the Weekly in a second.

On the Daily, EUR/CAD going in profits manifested as a breakout of a descending channel formation.
Looking at price action right now, it seems as if price is retesting breakout levels from this channel.

Now, what i really don’t like is that this retracement broke the important Fibonacci levels which are best seen on H1.
Have a look.

I am noticing my self over-analyzing everything when things don’t go my way (Zooming down to H1 is a bit too much for a weekly setup, but my mind is going hectic)
And to support the above mentioned craziness, I even opened the economic calendar to scan for any upcoming market movers for the EUR/CAD.

And guess what, tomorrow we got high impact news announcements coming from Canada, and low tier news for the EUR
The forecast for the employment change in Canada is negative, so I am hoping this will boost traders to further sell the CAD and potentially move my EUR/CAD to my target areas.

[Pip-Skywalker]

After 2 and a half months my GBP/AUD Long hit my SL for a total loss of 2% because i already cashed out 1% in profits previously.
This is so depressing, my account from being 6% in the plus is down to +0.6%

I’m still in the green, but damn, that’s 3 months of work down the drain because of one bad months. If my other active position EUR/CAD hits me, than i’ll e in the red.

Here is the chart for GBP/AUD

The pinbar was the entry signal,

[anon29700983]

@Pip-Skywalker

My PC died, and i am doing this from my phone.

worst idea ever. dont trade when you dont have a pc

• congratulations for your idea, wish you the best. normally that could help you to get discipline

[Pip-Skywalker]

That was like 1 day

[Pip-Skywalker]

Hello traders, and welcome to an entire new trading year.

Let’s hope 2021 will be profitable for all of us here at babypips!

I decided to skip the entire months of January due to the craziness worldwide, but now it’s time to get back to Forex.

I was looking between 8 potential setups, and decided to go with 4. 3 of them on the Daily, 1 on the monthly.
One of them (EUR/AUD) is the strongest one, since it is shown in 2 different strategies I trade.

GBP/USD, Monthly - Long

GBP/CAD, Daily - Short

CHF/JPY, Daily - Short

The strongest setup I have is for EUR/AUD - Daily, Short.

This pair has a potential setup on the part time trading strategy, and also on the 3 SMA trend trading strategy that I have.

Here is what both charts look like.

It will be a waste of time to explain all of the setups so I will just explain the last one.
There are multiple things happening here:

• Fibonacci at 50% - which are more valid if in a trending scenarion such as this one

• Pinbar is touching the trendline - which is a great signal

• This is the second swing in this trend - meaning the trend is confirmed

• Pinbar is in D.A.S.R (Dynamic Area of Support & Ressistance) - Strategy requirement

The thing I don’t like is that Friday’s big green candle, which is still smaller than the pinbar.

Also, I am not sure how to enter this, I have multiple entry strategies, but haven’t decided how to go about this.

Anyway, I will update once I make up my mind.

[Pip-Skywalker]

I opened 2 positions as the markets opened yesterday. In this post I will explain my trading plan for the EUR/AUD position.

p.s: My previous demo of 3k had a technical glitch from Oanda for some reason, so I needed to switch to another demo of 10k that I had.
This does not make much of a difference, since the balance there was 9470 EUR, meaning I was down 6.3%, and it might be a perfect place to start 2021.

Starting Balance 2021: EUR 9470

1. Details

• Pair: EUR/AUD
• Time Frame: Daily
• Strategy: Part Time/ 3 SMA
• Position Type: Sell (Short)
• Open: 1.58966
• Stop Loss: 1.60100
• Risk in Pips: 139
• Risk in Percentage: 2.6%
• Risk in €: 246
• Lot Size: 0.29
• Take Profit in Pips: 286
• Take Profit in Percentage: 5.35%
• Take Profit in €: 507

I had a few elements working for me on this setup, as I mentioned on the previous post. Read the previous post for details, but to recap, we have a solid trendline, Fibonacci level, Pinbar touching the trendline, and D.A.S.R (read previous post).

I entered as soon as Monday’s candle opened, and placed my Stop Loss a few pips above the 61.8% Fibbo level, which was a confluence level, because the 50 SMA (red) was also there, and also it was above the trendline, so we are looking at a triple protection on this trade.

My entry was aggressive and pretty good so far. My plan is to exit the entire trade at 1.56100, because bellow we have a major Monthly level approaching, so this will give me a nice 286 pips or a very nice 1:2 R:R

So far, the EUR/AUD is looking good, it’s 70 pips in profits, it has a long way to go, so we’ll be patient. And also my other position CHF/JPY got trig erred, and is in plus, but very small, it is still very close to the entry levels, around 5 pips in profits…nothing to write home about.

Let’s see how this one pans out.

Cheers!

[Pip-Skywalker]

I closed this one in profit, I will write in more details what happened by the end of the week.

[Pip-Skywalker]

It will take me 30 minutes to write the entire post about EUR/AUD, but let’s just say I cashed in solid profits, and missed out about 100 pips because I was playing extremely conservative.

Moving on.

From my analysis, NZD should be falling next week and the JPY should gain strength - across the board for both.

So I decided to play on NZD/JPY - Sell, on the Weekly time frame.

Here is the chart:

A pinbar on the previous major swing point, plus I added the RSI since it’s overbought, and that rarely happens on the Weekly as you already know:

Entry: 76,72
Stop Loss: 78,04
Lot Size: 0,25

[Pip-Skywalker]

Hello fellow Forex traders, it’s been a while. I have not stopped trading in the meantime, but instead of doing a recap I will explain my current position, which has been open for a while.

On march 29th I went long on AUD/JPY using the 3SMA trend trading strategy. My entry was about 10 pips off then I originally wanted, but still it’s valid.
Even though it was risky, price made a higher high and a higher low, so I decided to enter, since price retested the D.A.S.R (Dynamic Area of Support & Resistance) and made a successful bounce.

The funny thing is I waited for an entire month before this trade went in to profits. Not literally, but it was flip flopping up and down, but never came even close to testing my SL which is well placed behind the pullback and behind the 50 SMA as a double protection. The 30 and 50 SMA touched and a crossover was about to happen, but just then price shoot back up. If the crossover happened, I would have closed the trade manually of course

The only thing I am not sure is where to exit, since lately I have been dabbling with different exit policies. But in this case, since I don’t see a logical level except when I zoom out to the Monthly TF, I will just set my target as 1:2 R:R which will validate my position entirely.

Details:

Pair: AUD/JPY
Time Frame: Daily
Strategy: Trend Trading - 3 SMA

Entry: 83.838
Stop Loss: 81.949
Risk in Pips: 189
Risk in %: 3
Risk in €: 286.12
Target: Open Target Policy

Current Profits in Pips: 130
Current Profits in €: 197.51

Let’s see what happens.
Next post I will share my Watch List for the upcoming period.

[Pip-Skywalker]

Weekend Market Analysis

Hey fellow traders.

This weekend the force is particularly strong with me, so I decided to share a more detailed analysis. The focus will be only the best looking setups & potential setups.

• Watchlist & Potential Setups (screenshots and detailed analysis included)

1. NZD/CHF - Watchlist

After a major upside breakout candle on the Monthly time frame back in January, price has been trapped in a congested area - more specifically forming a descending triangle formation visible on the Daily Time frame, and also a solid looking rising trendline on the Weekly.
Click on the screenshot to zoom in:

How do we approach this?

Well, we have to go by one of the cardinal rules in trading - the bigger time frame prevails.

The massive January breakout on the monthly is trying to indicate that momentum for 2021 has shifted for this pair, and the trendline on the Weekly TF confirms for us that we need to be looking for Long positions here. The Congestion on the Daily is the lowest of the TF’s I look at, and it’s giving us a contradicting signal by the descending congestion.
Technically speaking we could go either way here. But if we are being responsible traders, then we will only look for a breakout to the upside from this triangle.

Next Steps: This is 50/50 right now. Traders are reacting to what is happening currently, not predicting, so until we get a breakout from this area, we will observe this pair for the following weeks to see when & if we get an opportunity.

2. NZD/JPY - Watchlist

In here we have an ascending triangle formation on the Daily TF that more or less lines up with an infliction are on the Weekly TF as well.

Next Steps Clear as day, we are waiting for a breakout to the upside on the Daily or Weekly. If we get that, then we will search for potential setups.

Next up I have 4 pairs from the trend trading strategy that I am using. Since all the requirements for this strategy are the same I will just post the charts here so you can see what I am looking at. But if you wanna dive deeper in to how & what I am doing, read the first post on this journal.

CHF/JPY - H4

NZD/CAD - D

EUR/JPY - D

AUD/CAD - H4

CAD/JPY - D

This is what I’ll be looking at next week. We do not have anything we can open for Monday.

p.s: On Monday I will start testing the London Open Breakout Strategy with a 0.5% to see if we can make it viable. My mentor says you can only find 1 high quality LOB setup per week, so I will need to be very picky.

Have a great weekend.

[Pip-Skywalker]

Pip Skywalker’s take on BTC/USD

I am not a fan of Cryptocurrencies, but I have been getting questions from friends, family and random people that follow me.

So, I will analyze BTC/USD from a technical perspective using the Monthly, Weekly & Daily Time Frames.

Monthly Chart

The month isn’t finished, and yet we have the biggest bearish candle in BTC/USD history. The logic behind people’s confidence in trading something that we don’t have any comparable data on is baffling to me.
People think that now is a good time to buy, because a big dip just occurred, unfortunately, that’s not how things work. In April we had a huge hesitation candle, and after that we usually get a huge momentum in either direction, signaling what is happening or potentially will be happening down the line. So, in my humble opinion this bearish candle is telling us that we should be looking for shorts, since the momentum is shifted.
Once again, this is the biggest red candle in BTC/USD history, everyone should stay away from this volatile and unpredictable instrument.

Weekly Chart

We can clearly see that round numbers are the name of the game for BTC/USD. Price topped out at around 60k, then flip flopped between 50k and 60k and the last 2 weeks a massive breakout to the downside happened bottoming out at 30k, which is currently the last line of resistance.
I understand the need to buy now, hopping that it will shoot up again, but we have no confirmation of a reversal or anything remotely bullish except for the support that BTC hit at 30k.
If I were to go long here, I would wait for the 60k t be broken retested and then enter, but the way things look on the Weekly, nothing to trade as of now.

Daily Chart

On the Daily chart, we are seeing the zoomed in version of this big fall, and currently price is hesitating again. It’s in no mans land, no infliction points, no signals it’s literary waiting time.
It’s obvious we are dealing with a bearish bias, why in gods name would anyone want to go long now is beyond my comprehension.
If anything, we could be potentially looking at a falling trendline.

Conclusion:
I don’t like Bitcoin, but it’s a bearish bias, and if I were crazy enough to invest my capital in this, currently I would be looking for short opportunities.

[Pip-Skywalker]

Hello fellow traders, I have a fresh setup ready for tonight (or whatever time zone you live in)

I knew there was RBNZ statement this week, but my strategy does not include fundamentals, all I know is, I have a setup.
Well, 2 setups involving the NZD to correct, but I picked the visually better looking one which is AUD/NZD.

We are looking at a breakout to the downside in massive momentum which happened yesterday, and today we have a hesitation candle. This is called the breakout congestion and hopefully continuation formation.

My entry is 5 pips bellow the low of the hesitation candle, and the SL is 5 pips above the same candle. A grand total of 48 pips. On the first target I will cash out 50% and move the SL to BE, and the second target the remaining 50%.

I need to wait a few hours before this one gets activated.

p.s: I started a new account for this, I finished my 6 months journey, ended up in plus, but not enough to start a real account, so I’ll go another 6 to see what will happen.

The entry SL and Tp levels are on the screen shot.

[Pip-Skywalker]

The AUD/NZD did not get triggered, and it went above yesterday’s high, so I decided to cancel it, even though the day has not ended.

A few days ago I noticed a beautiful trend on the Daily TF for CAD/JPY, initially I was expecting a retracement, but it was an ascending triangle congestion area.
And today the Breakthrough happened out of that congestion to the upside. I zoomed in on H4 and waited for a Breakout Pullback Continuation which a got. The Stop Loss is just bellow the pullback, and the entry is a few pips above the initial breakout.

p.s: this is all part of my new account, which is connected to Myfxbook, I will leave the details bellow.
Bellow here is the trigger chart zoomed in, I got a really nice breakout and pullback to retest breakout levels.

As far as target policies goes, I measured the widest part of the triangle and projected it upwards and set my target on around 80% of that. So it’s at 93.325

I made a mistake and risked only 0.9% instead of 2.8%, but it does not matter since it’s the first trade.

Here are the details:

• Entry: 91.076

• Stop Loss: 90.680

• Take Profit: 92.325

• Risk in Pips: 39

• Risk in $: 28.80

• Risk in %: 0,96

• R:R: 1:3

• TP in $: 90.90

• TP in %: 3.03%

[Pip-Skywalker]

Monday Trade Signal

The markets open in a few hours, and the Buy Stop order that I plan to execute is a long on EUR/CAD on the weekly time frame.

Price has found a solid support point at the 1.42500 and formed a beautiful pinbar which I intend to exploit fully. My action plan is to set an entry order 5 pips above the highest point of the pinbar and a stop loss 5 pips bellow the 50% mark of the entire pinbar formation, since from the previous candles I can see that price is struggling to go lower and the bulls are regaining control of this market.

What I don’t like is that the pinbar clearly made a lower low, and as we can see from the chart, price has been downtrending for quite some time now (Since July 2020).
But, that’s why my entry is conservative, because if price ticks 5 pips above last weeks high, then the downtrend for now should be over, and an imminent move to the upside is to follow. The rejection was very solid, it happened in big volume, so this should be a good trade. But I hope for nothing, I am just reacting to what I am seeing.

For this trade I am implementing an open target policy, but I am expecting a 2 candle close. Ideally 50% on the first candle close and 50% on the second. But all that depends on how price action reacts of this level.

Here is the chart fully zoomed with the entry and SL marked

Details if somebody want’s to take this trade:

Entry: 1.43325
Stop Loss: 1.42090
Risk in Pips: 123

[MattyMoney]

Good to see you’re still actively trading. Hope you’re well.

[Pip-Skywalker]

Hey man, yeah I am, I just having been posting like at all :))

[Pip-Skywalker]

The trade I wrote about in my previous post got stopped out, but in the meantime, I got involved in another position that is obviously going to last for some time and be profitable.
I shorted the NZD/CHF based on a signal from my trend trading strategy on the 4H time frame.

Unfortunately price is currently stuck and barely in profit, I did not cash out at the previous low, I did not move my SL, I am letting this one run with a huge target.
I am aiming for 320+ pips with barely a 35 pip Stop Loss.

Here is a screen shot on the Weekly on how that looks.

But, my current dilemma also involves NZD. I found a potential signal on 2 different strategies I trade, the trend trading strategy and the long term trading strategy, and this time is for the EUR/NZD. The signal again will come from the H4 time frame.

First thing is this, all 3 SMA’s aligned, price has retraced to the DASR, and it’s within Fibonacci trading territory. The trend has been going on for a while, this is not the first swing, so all my ducks are in a row so far.

Here is a closer look at what I am currently working with.
(Click to zoom in)

There are 2 ways to enter this trade, and I am going with the conservative one. That means zooming in to the H1 time frame and plotting a counter trend line, and waiting for a break of the counter trend line.
I already have the trend line, look at the next picture. What I am waiting for is a breakout pullback continuation to enter this trade.

To make things even sweeter, if we go in to the higher time frames (weekly) we can see that the next major level of resistance is so far away, that if this trade goes well, it will be profitable on a major level, we are looking at 1:10 R:R

The only problem is, I am already involved in an NZD trade, and even though they both compliment each other as far as direction goes, I don’t want to over expose my self on one currency.
I am thinking about going in with a smaller lot size, but this looks really beautiful.
Still not sure…

Any opinions?

[Pip-Skywalker]

Weekly Update

I still have 2 active position (NZD/CHF, USD/JPY - both short). As I am writing this both are barely in profit.

Here is how things are looking

NZD/CHF - Sell on the Daily

I had to move my SL a little bit, but I am still fairly confident in this setup so I am letting it run all the way. The NZD has been giving me a lot of signals on different pairs for 2 weeks, but I am sticking with this one.

As you can see the resistance level is still holding and it’s been tested 2 times, if nothing else, this only confirms my bias that we are heading for a bearish move strongly. I’ll have to wait a few more weeks for my target to be hit.

USD/JPY - Sell on the Weekly

I wrote about this setup last week, traded the pinbar basically, now it’s finally starting to move in my direction.
My target will be closing once price hits the trend line. Weather I will close fully or prtially depends on the volume in which price reaches target levels. If in full momentum, I might leave a portion, but if it’s slow like now, I will close 100% of the trade.

Watchilst: USD/CAD Weekly

God only knows when this one will happen, but I am waiting for a breakout on this ascending triangle, then I’ll trade the breakout. Hopefully the breakout will happen to the upside.

For today (21/02/22) - EUR/NZD on the daily

This is a standard breakout full retracement setup + it’s a Fibbo level, I didn’t draw it, but traders can see that it is.
The candle is a sandwich bar, so my SL will be 5 pips bellow the lowest point of todays candle and the entry will be 5 pips above, my target will be around 80% of the current high of the latest swing.
Because I am already involved in an NZD trade, I will cut down the risk on this one, probably to 1 or 2%.

That’s it for today, have a profitable week fellow traders.