thank you.
US Dollar Index: Down?
Composite COT Report:
80-100% - Look to go SHORT - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely long and Commercials (smart money) are extremely short.
0-20% - Look to go LONG - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely short and Commercials (smart money) are extremely long.
JPY: 46% = Stand aside
GBP: 19% = Long
Interest Rates:
USD = .25%
JPY = .1%
GBP = 1%
Bond Futures: Bearish divergence on highs…?
Looks like it’s saying buy GBPUSD this week.
Now for S&R lines on the chart:
hmmmm…Well price is making some higher highs & higher lows, although it looks more like it’s in a range…accumulation phase?. The Main Pivot is currently at the 38.2% fib retracement, and MS1 is at weekly Pivot (dashed yellow line) and between the 50 & 61.8% fibs, of the last upswing (yesterdays PDL & PDH), and although each one is a potential support area to go long from, it’s not the PDL which is the continued entry-area focus from the previous exercise for now.
Since I’ve interpreted a long bias, ideally we want to enter from the PDL. Today it’s converging with pivot midpoint MS2…I will put a pending long there @ 1.5473 with a 20 pip stop and target the previous session high at 1.5569.
Well I just don`t know :o
GU is at a nice area of resistance at 1.5838-58…how strong is it? The PDH at 1.5838 is 20 pips below the Daily R1 and Weekly R1. Price has broken thru and closed above the PDH and a down trendline, and also broke thru the R1 pivot but not closed above. If the long bias is correct then wed want to wait for it to return to the PDH, but it hasnt really gone above it enough to look like a breakout for it to test it as if it turned into support… yet at this moment anyways… and the pivot resistance may still cause price to turn back down for awhile…hmmmm…and the H4 fractal direction is currently up (as per the arrow meter in the top right corner of the chart).
So Ill wait. If price does stay above the PDH then Ill put in a long when it retraces…perhaps at a fib retrace level if not the PDH turned support area. If it does go back down, then I`ll wait for another retest of the PDH to scalp a short from.
Turned out to be no trade for me yesterday unfortunately. I was a little too focused on entering at either the PDH or PDL and kinda missed a third scenario being the long opportunity after a retrace to the Main pivot which had a nice confluence with the 50% fib of the PDR (previous daily range). Ok, will keep that in mind for another opp…moving on.
So today the PDH is at the Weekly R2ish area. This just might be the next opp if price retraces again. The Main pivot is at the 38% fib of the PDR swing and at the “figure” 1.5700 area. If not there, then the other area I’d consider would be below that at the 61% area at 1.5660 area which is also Mid pivot 1 by my indicator, the Weekly R1 area, aaaaaand the prev weekly high…that’s 4 converging reasons.
The H4 flow is still up.
Edit:
Price retraced slightly by only 23.6%…a very shallow retrace… then blew up past the PDH. So now I’ve got a pending long at the PDH (resistance turned support), rounding up to 1.5780. It looks like price maybe trying to revisit a previous key high of 1.5900, but first it could retrace down from 1.5860 (MR2) resistance to the PDH which would be between 50-61.8% of todays range thus far, but even if it went straight to 1.59, a retrace to the PDH is still around the 61.8% level, which would seem a good area to go long for a retest of 1.59.
Turned out to be another no trade day yesterday too.The uptrend was just a little too strong and wouldn’t retrace far enough back down for me. However, still looking to go long today and hoping for a retrace down to 1.5785 which is at the 61.8% of yesterdays range, the MS1 pivot (buy zone), and possibly a previous resistance now being retested as support.
I have a 30 pip stop this time but I suppose ideally I should have a 70 pip stop to put it under the last swing low, or PDL, of 1.5716 and adjust my lot size to make a 70 pip loss work out to $20… which is 0.285 lots (or 2.8 micro lots).
My profit target is 1.5880 which is 95 pips, but the adjusted lot size would also calculate proportionately to just over $27.
Again price did not retrace down much past the 38.2% level…some strong trend! So that’s it for this week. A bit disappointing that I had the direction & target right, but just couldn’t find a place to get a foothold (trade) into it. I need to reread a post I recall ICT made about entering into strong trends which I’m still trying to locate.
At this point, it’s not about countertrend trades, which predictably did have a reaction at all the forseen resistance levels. However I was looking at it as if the downside potential was too limited in light of the bigger picture direction, except for scalping purposes which are not part of this exercise for the next little while, and because it’s not trading “with” smart money.
Later today the new COT should be released so looking forward to that and what it says. This weekend I will spend a little time reviewing how well my little custom Composite COT indicator matches with price historically, as well as review the S&R landscape for next week.
US Dollar Index: Down?
PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts
Composite COT Report:
80-100% - Look to go SHORT - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely long and Commercials (smart money) are extremely short.
0-20% - Look to go LONG - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely short and Commercials (smart money) are extremely long.
Now JPY is the quote pair so it’s opposite.
JPY: 7.69% = Short
GBP: 34.6% = Stand aside
Interest Rates:
USD = .25%
JPY = .1%
GBP = 1%
USDJPY swap is positive on longs, negative on shorts.
Bond Futures: Bearish divergence on highs…?
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Bias: Looks like it’s saying sell USDJPY this week.
Now for S&R lines on the chart:
H4 flow is down. The PDH (83.06) is at the 61.8% of the previous week’s daily hi/low range (upper & lower red lines) and price action on that scale is making lower highs and lower lows. As far as the weekly & monthly pivots go, we are in the sell zone for the daily & monthly, but at the weekly mid pivot area which is neutral.
Since I’ve interpreted a short bias, ideally we want to enter from the PDH’s. Today it’s converging with pivot midpoint MR1 (83.01)…I will put a pending short there @ 83.06 with a 20 pip stop and target the previous session low at 82.49.
Good Job 
you predicted the direction perfectly, although I guess you missed your entry at 83.06. I gotta say this whole thing with bond rate bullish/bearish divergence is pretty dependent on how you look at it. In the picture the blue lines indicate bearish divergence but the red lines indicate bullish divergence, I wonder which one is more valid? :o
Also would you happen to have the COT data on the yen in excel format? I transcribed the COT data for the entire 2010 for the pound and it took a looonng time.
You did what!?..you [B]transcribed[/B] the entire 2010 GBP COT data into Excel!?
You can get the Excel version of each year which only takes a few minutes to download, copy & paste that section into your own spreadsheet…
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/files/dea/history/dea_com_xls_2010.zip…
which is found on this page Historical Compressed - CFTC down in the [B]Futures-and-Options Combined Reports:[/B] section where it gives you a choice between text and excel.
Then I reverse sort so the most recent is at the bottom of the list which makes it easier to add the coming weeks.
Ya, my entry was missed…again. I’m considering a new tactic for that. However, don’t count my predictions as too perfect yet as it’s only been a week & a day…will wait for a few more weeks yet to see how it goes in that regard. I agree the divergence on both highs & lows is conflicting
well gee don’t I feel stupid…that’s an hour of my life that I’m never getting back :o tho it’s comforting that my data entry skills are pretty good should I need to look for a new line of work if this forex thing didn’t work out 
I seem to remember ICT makes 2 trades in a given day where he only takes the 2nd trade if the first one didn’t work out. Maybe go for a more aggressive approach initially say at the 50 or 62% retracement to PDL/PDH (as long as it converges with other factors of course) and if that didn’t work out then take the more conservative trade at the PDL/PDH…or whatever. I’m sure you have thought of something better. Just throwing that out there. GL
Was looking at a zoomed out view of the UJ and drew a fib from the top orange line to bottom orange line (daily t/f swing high/low) and find that the PDL 82.34, S1 pivot, and the weekly S1 pivot level are just above the 50% (82.29) level. So my idea is to wait and see if price breaks thru that support, and then set a pending short in wait of a retest of that support turned resistance at the 50% level.
Well, support still held and price bounced up off it. So plan B was to enter at the 50% level of the the PDR (previous daily range- blue lines) which also happens to be the central pivot (yellow line). Plan B should have been preset last night, however, I was too focused on plan A that I overlooked it.
Then this morning seeing that price was there, I entered 2 market orders at 82.67 & 82.72. Talk about being disorganized, I also forgot that I had altered my lot size for one of last weeks pending orders, but MT4 didn’t and my market order was for 2.8 micro lots…oops…so I entered a second order with 2.2 mirco lots…so now I have a combined 1/2 a mini. I was a little sloppy with calculating my optimal lot size because I had to run off to work.
I have my stop just above the PDH which is 32-35 pips, but with 1/2 a mini, the loss will be about $15. Target is just above the PDL at 82.40 for about 30 pips.
Only problem is this is a really slow time of day so it could take awhile to reach either end. 
Edit:
That worked out rather well…target hit for +30. Now since I had 2 orders open, mt4pips has recorded it as 60 pips even tho they weren’t full lot orders.
Ok, so now maybe plan A will play out. Price broke down thru support at 82.35ish so am setting a pending sell order at that price 82.32 should it be retested and hold as resistance. Again the S1 pivot is there, and the H4 flow is still down, and in the sell zone for the monthly pivot.
Stop is at the PDH (82.81) which is a 50pip loss, but at 0.4 lots, it’s only $20. Target will tentatively be set just above the 0% fib I used on Monday at 81.20…120 pips…very ambitious I must say 
Plan A would have worked out to a point…first it missed triggering by a couple of pips, then it didn’t reach my target but would have been profitable due to the trailing stop I set for 25 pips.
However, I left the pending order pending into today, and earlier this morning it triggered, but unfortunately price decided to go up all the way past my stop. -50 pips but fortunately was not a full mini lot.
What was kind of funny actually was that I was going to delete that pending at the start of the day because of the pattern price was making. I was going thru the Street Smarts book checking out the Wolfe Wave & Three Little Indian patterns and considered that price may go up considerably based on the projection of the Wolfe Wave…then thought, naaaah, price bias is down, so I left it alone.
Now I see it very well could have been as I marked on the chart. So possible new rule is that the previous day signal should not extend into the next day, and don’t trade against a possible pattern such as these.
Any analysis for the upcoming week sweetpip?
My COT composite index (based on the last 52 weeks) says to short the yen and the pound. US dollar seems it might go lower and we also see bearish divergence on US bonds (?). So conflicting signals on GBP/USD however seems to support shorting the USD/JPY. Thoughts?
Hi…yes I’m just having a lazy day recovering from a night out last night …just a tad too much wine :o
Anyways here goes…
US Dollar Index: Down?
PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts
Composite COT Report:
80-100% - Look to go SHORT - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely long and Commercials (smart money) are extremely short.
0-20% - Look to go LONG - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely short and Commercials (smart money) are extremely long.
Now JPY is the quote pair so it’s opposite.
JPY: 7.69% = Short
GBP: 69.2% = Stand aside
Interest Rates:
USD = .25%
JPY = .1%
GBP = 1%
USDJPY swap is positive on longs, negative on shorts.
Bond Futures: Bearish divergence on highs…and lows…?
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Bias: Looks like it’s still saying sell USDJPY this week.
Now for S&R lines on the chart:
H4 flow is up. The PDH (83.09) is at the previous week’s high, which I’ve also got marked as a H4 swing hi resistance area, and in a figure number area of 83.00. As far as the pivots go, we are in the sell zone for the daily, weekly & monthly.
Again with a short bias I will put a pending short @ 83.00 with a 20 pip stop just above the weekly R1, and target the previous session low at 82.40 which is 127% of the PDR and S1.
Edit:
Well it would appear that my entries suck. Price was rejected at the R1 and didn’t quite make it up the the PDH. My target seemed good this time. A 2nd possible target would have been the 161.8% which also lines up with S2. Perhaps I should work backwards from that using the reciprocol fib of the 161.8% which is 61.8%, which is where the R1 is and where I should have entered. I also just noticed a bullish gartley forming and the D point also completes at the S2, and that would have confirmed a C point entry at R1
I had a couple of potential short orders pending, but price didn’t reach high enough to trigger them…again too shallow of a retrace it seems.
So now price has broken down thru the PDL at 82.29, and coming back up to retest it. I am in short now at 82.26 which is the middle between the PDL and the S1 at 82.24, with a 20 pip stop and a target at 81.96 which is S2 just above last weeks low, the weekly S1, and a double bottom.
Edit:
I closed the trade for +22 pips. It was so close to my TP that I really didn’t want to see it lost for the sake of a couple of pips.
I guess I’m a little guilty tonight of being a traitor to USDJPY. It was just too painful tonight watching it try to slink through a 18 pip consolidation. So I peeked at GBPUSD and darn if it wasn’t at the PDH, MR1 & 61.8% fib of a prior swing (last weeks high to this weeks low). I had to take it. Short at 1.5935, stop of 20 pips, target 30 pips at 1.5905 which was just above the Asian session low.
Target hit within 10 mins…+30
Just checked UJ and it had quite the explosion to the upside and if I had my pending short at the PDH, it would have failed.
Last week my TDA (top down analysis) that I didn’t post basically said to stand aside…unless I guess one wanted to scalp which I tried a few times and ended up pretty much breakeven…got a little off track so need to get back on track.
US Dollar Index: Down?
PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts
Composite COT Report:
80-100% - Look to go SHORT - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely long and Commercials (smart money) are extremely short.
0-20% - Look to go LONG - Non-Commercials (speculators) are extremely short and Commercials (smart money) are extremely long.
Now JPY is the quote pair so it’s opposite.
JPY: 34.6% = Stand aside
GBP: 92.3% = Short
Interest Rates:
USD = .25%
JPY = .1%
GBP = 1%
Both GBPUSD & USDJPY swap is positive on longs, negative on shorts.
Bond Futures: Rising
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Bias: Looks like it’s saying sell GBPUSD this week.
Now for S&R lines on the chart:
On the daily chart price is at the top of an 900 pip range (being an1.6300 top and a 1.5339 bottom) and already bouncing down. I threw on a 5,3,3 stochs and see a bearish divergence on the highs. Flow on the H4 & H1 is down, although up on the daily until it breaks down thru 1.5820ish
The game plan would seem to be to look for pullbacks that converge with pivots and fibs in the sell zone from which to go short. Now the last 2 times my COT indicated extreme readings, the pullbacks were rather shallow, so this time maybe entering around the 38% area is in order.
so complicated