Political Opinion

[Blackduck]

@CarlosRay

In a well-balanced economy, everyone can benefit from the effects of inflation: higher wages, more jobs, lower unemployment, and steady economic growth.

I have to agree with you here. Inflation is a two way street and is a combination of both wage increase and the increase in the price of goods and services.

Cheers

Blackduck

[Dennis3450]

It has become very clear who biden plans to model his presidency after

dark times are upon us

[SmallPaul]

[Dennis3450]

Can either of you give one example where this economic utopia is actually taking place? It sure is not happening in the US where we have seen 30 years of stagnant wage growth while the cost of everything we actually use is increasing by 5 to 10 percent a year

[SmallPaul]

[Falstaff]

@Mickbuffet2

@Blackduck

there

Duck I’m amazed that you of all people would butcher the spelling of the possessive pronoun THEIR. Isn’t Australia an English speaking country? This coming from somebody who tells us all we are oh so stupid. OMG

Is that really the best you can do ?

Who the F*** cares ?

This is NOT an “English Grammar” class - and the very best you can do is to quibble about spellings ?

I believe you still owe me an answer to certain questions / observations I made a few days ago - which seems to have caused you to evade the thread for some time !

[Blackduck]

@Dennis3450

Can either of you give one example where this economic utopia is actually taking place

It’s not happening at all in any country at the present moment. That’s why interest rates are so low to the point where they are almost non existent.

Economic growth is reliant on people spending. People cannot or will not spend if they don’t have enough money or they don’t have certainty. Low interest rates high unemployment low or no wage growth stifles economic growth. Trump had achieved huge economic growth with his policies that stimulated business. This added to lowering the unemployment level and that helped fuel wage and economic growth.

The Reserve bank in that scenario has to watch that inflation does not get too high. Have you heard of an overheated economy? That is when wage growth and the cost of goods and services rise too quickly leading to a rapid increase in inflation. That’s when the Reserve Bank uses interest rates as a means to slow inflation.

So a healthy economy is one that has a small level of inflation and low interest rates. That is the only way that everyone can enjoy a rise in living standards.

It’s not about a utopia. it’s about prosperity and a rise in living standards.

Hope that helps

Cheers

Blackduck

[SmallPaul]

Trump tapped into white victimhood – leaving fertile ground for white supremacists

Trump tapped into white victimhood – leaving fertile ground for white...

[Falstaff]

@Mickbuffet2

That poor girl is a saint.

F…“Oh she gets “Value” from the deal !”

[Offers a Red Pill ]

F…“Tell you what Beta = If you can pull a bird like that when you’re 70 - you won’t be doing at all bad !”

F…[aside ] … "Or even NOW ! "

[Falstaff]

@CarlosRay

At a reasonable level, there is nothing wrong with inflation. A healthy rate in the U.S. is around 2% per year.

Yes that’s what the Uk Govt sets as the “standard rate” - 2%

Now of course we need to look at “reality” - (That’s what we used to think in terms of when the world was “Modernist” or even “Enlightened” - Just for you Postmodernists )

My old man used to tell me when I was a kid "HOUSE PRICES DOUBLE EVERY 6 YEARS !"

CRAZY !

So I just did a little excercise

He bought a house in about 1957 for £2500 and my daughter has one pretty much identical in a similar location.which is worth £325,000 - so that’s what 60 years ?

Let’s count the doubles
5k, 10k, 20k, 40k, 80k. 160k, 320k. = 7 doubles

7 doubles 60 years = 8 years per double - not bad for a “Top of the head” forecast in the '60’s was it ?

Now you were saying “Inflation = 2%” (pa )

How so ? - can’t do Compound interest in my head - but I’'d say that is closer to 11%

[Dennis3450]

@Falstaff

So I just did a little excercise

He bought a house in about 1957 for £2500 and my daughter has one pretty much identical in a similar location.which is worth £325,000 - so that’s what 60 years ?

Excellent example , but you should have included wages for an even more profound example

In the US in 1960 the median home price was $11,900 while the median household income $5,600
In the US in 2020 the median home price was $284K while the median household income 68,000

from 1960 to 2020 income has increased by 11 times compared to 23 times for housing

again the 2% is a scam, don’t believe it

[Dennis3450]

If you want to know the truth about the government and the new War on Freedom, just watch this interview or just keep believing the lies on Yahoo

[peterma]

@Falstaff

so it seems even then the BBC were “Woke”

20 years later I sat for some months with the old QS who was doing the “Kariba Arbitration” - who was mentoring me in “Arbitration”

I’m not really sure what woke means, all i know was that UK broadcasters had to follow their Govt guidelines.

What jumped out for me in that post was “Arbitration” - dispute resolution or perhaps conflict resolution.

Very powerful but yet difficult skill and likely took it’s toll on your Uncle - although being a peacemaker he was blessed.

.

[peterma]

@Dennis3450

in the US where we have seen 30 years of stagnant wage growth while the cost of everything we actually use is increasing by 5 to 10 percent a year

Here are the charts - 1st for CPI 2nd for Avg Wages US:

(Source in images)

[peterma]

@Blackduck

Economic growth is reliant on people spending.

Aha - this is 21st century thinking if i may say so.

Last century what you guys call the ‘right’ figured that fiscal tightness was the way forward. In the UK the mantra from the Conservative party was the need to ‘balance the books’ - one which I being in business completely agreed with.

So what changed in this century - why did Pres Trump agree to massive Govt borrowing, why also did UK do the same (all before covid) - answer is the sub-prime debacle changed the landscape big time.

Consumer spending is a leading indicator - so too is Dr Copper and WTI.

[Dennis3450]

@Blackduck

it’s about prosperity and a rise in living standards.

This cannot be achieved through Central Bank academics and there games with interest rates

What you seek is innovation, Edison and the light bulb, Tesla and the power grid, Bell and the Telephone, and modern equivalent would be Elon Musk and his pursuit of self-driving technology

As a trader I am sure you know of Cathie Wood and Ark Investments, this is where you will find the companies that will give us a rise in our living standards, that is if government does not get in the way.

Note; innovation causes things to cost less, central banks cause things to cost more

[CarlosRay]

@Dennis3450

It sure is not happening in the US where we have seen 30 years of stagnant wage growth while the cost of everything we actually use is increasing by 5 to 10 percent a year

Would like to see where you get your numbers from, this chart would suggest otherwise.(macrotrends.net)

It looks like 5% has only been breached once, in 1990.

[SmallPaul]

Biden Administration Orders National Intelligence Office and FBI to Assess Threat of Domestic Violent Extremism

Biden Administration Orders National Intelligence Office and FBI to Assess...

[Blackduck]

@peterma

Last century what you guys call the ‘right’ figured that fiscal tightness was the way forward. In the UK the mantra from the Conservative party was the need to ‘balance the books’ - one which I being in business completely agreed with.

This is still true in the minds of true conservatism. But that has to be balanced with growth and the only way to obtain growth is with a steady increase in prosperity.

What the governments of today do is to encourage mass spending at both a government level and an individual level in order to inflate the economy to satisfy the younger generations desire to “have it all Now” This has the added benefit of ensuring government popularity and guaranteeing re-election. Governments now have a policy of not going into recession at all costs. However this artificial inflating of an economy only serves to postpone the inevitable. Personally I believe a big crash is coming as the level of debt in the world today is unsustainable. Chickens eventually come home to roost.

Cheers

Blackduck

[Falstaff]

@Dennis3450

@Falstaff

So I just did a little excercise

He bought a house in about 1957 for £2500 and my daughter has one pretty much identical in a similar location.which is worth £325,000 - so that’s what 60 years ?

Excellent example , but you should have included wages for an even more profound example

In the US in 1960 the median home price was $11,900 while the median household income $5,600
In the US in 2020 the median home price was $284K while the median household income 68,000

from 1960 to 2020 income has increased by 11 times compared to 23 times for housing

again the 2% is a scam, don’t believe it

I left all of that out deliberately mate - because it doesn’t compare Like with like !

1960 a “median” household over here would probably be a Father - Skilled working man, stay at home mother and 2.4 kids - I expect yours would be similar.

Then they brought in “Con 1” - Send women out to work ! So all very “empowering” ? Nah - in 1960 a Decent house was 3x a “Skilled man’s annual wages” - That is the house I speak of -3 bed semi on 1/8 acre of land (Govt specified after the “War” as a "Family unit ) which also enabled the growing of vegetablles and the keeping of a few chickens and maybe a pig.

That is the “house” I was speaking of.

So when They convinced women that it was “empowering” for them to go to work - house prices now needed 2 incomes and the multiplier remained at 3 x so it now needed 3x 2working incomes to buy the same house ! ie wages were effectively HALVED !

• Note your figures do seem to demonstrate that relationship here

@Dennis3450

from 1960 to 2020 income has increased by 11 times compared to 23 times for housing

Then “divorce became respectable” and the Family unit was split asunder (over 50% of kids now have no biological father in the home and gradually women stopped having kids - so now a median “Household” probably has a “Mother” 1-2 kids and a series of transient “semi-resident” ‘dad’s’ who don’t actually ever register as “resident” because the “Absent father” would expect a reduction in his “maintenance” payments and women are Not That stupid !

Add to that the fact that “housing” has been reduced in quality throughout the period so we had a load of high -rise “Flats” built in the '60s and 70’s (obviously brought down “Average housing costs”) - then room sizes reduced and housing quality reduced, density increased so we got to somewher stupid like 25 - 30 houses per acre.

So that the 3 bed 1960’s “semi” went from being a basic “house” for a first time buyer - to quite a desireable second or third stage house. The house hadn’t changed - it’s value hadn’t changed - but everything Else had changed ! - That’s why I deliberately left out Everything except the cash price of the house - to keep “Like” compared with “Like”.

Wtf the “median” household would look like now - I dread to think !

However - we are at least talking the same “language” - whilst those who actually BELIEVE this 2% garbage - just have no idea ! if you look at the post Scruffy Carl has popped up in defence of his “knowledge”, and of the “items included” in the figures (More imprtant as we know are those deliberately LEFT - OUT !) - But hey the "educated" will just take it on board as though it was true !

Nah I stick with my figures - 11% says I !