Hello Everyone,
Hope everyone having a good weekend !
I would like to get people’s opinion about what they think of Conservatives winning the election in December. Would it be pound positive or negative and it would be great if people can extend their opinion on winning of other parties too for instance, Labour, Brexit etc.
Cheers,
Day Dreamer
Positive. BUT the real question is how much more prise rise will there be if they do win. GBP has been strong ever since Boris Johnson entered No.10 and at each turn of events which makes his win in a General Election more likely the GBP has had a shot in the arm. Unexpectedly strong Conservative majority could provide an additional boost.
It would be quite possible for GBP to do nothing at all as a modest Conservative win is announced.
First open a cable daily - look at Oct 10th - then figure what happened that date.
(I’ll make it a little easier Brexit News for Thursday 10 October | BrexitCentral)
So how come price thus reacted?
Prior to this there seemed to be a stalemate, but yet there were hints - this new PM had a reputation of rolling up his sleeves (not metaphorically) he can get things done - no pushover by either DUP (previously causing the stalemate) or by many of the other players including the ERG, the Brexit Party or dissenters within the Conservatives (whom he promptly sacked)
Check again the daily to see how price reacted to this sense of getting a deal with the EU in the lead up to Oct 10th.
Then the deal was done, it was in the bag and it had a majority in Westminster - that is until it stalled.
Check again the daily - the flag - that’s the stall.
So how come price didn’t go back down when the Boris deal didn’t get through and instead an election was called?
Because the market expects a Tory win, and then the deal gets through - the flag does what it’s supposed to do.
thank you for the insight ! it makes better sense now and would keep an eye on the limited upside to GBP.
Cheers !
Thank you so much for the explanation. I am quite new and trying to make sense of your post.
I checked the news looks negative to me as deal was rejected but pound rallied on October 10?
Leading up to Oct. 10 cable was falling against USD, query I have is if we knew that Boris is a strong leader then why Cable fell, should have held the range?
I understood the latter part of your post.
Could you please correct me here.
You’re welcome @DayDreamer3d.
There is wall to wall media coverage of the election right now. Of course, the objective of media coverage is not to inform, it is to gain consumers from competitors and keep them coming back. So the media will always insist this is an exciting, close-run contest and anyone could win.
Or you could look at the bookmakers’ websites such as Paddy Power and William Hill and see who they think will win -
Nobody is giving Labour better than an 8/1 chance of getting most seats. LibDems are no better than 29/1, Brexit Party no better than 40/1.
Of course, things can change…
Context: a possible deal was being stalled re the Irish(EU) / Northern Irish (UK) land border.
There was a hush hush meeting called by the Uk PM between Irish and UK PM- even the venue was supposed to be secret.
Pretty clear something was on the move, and then came the announcement- " Leo Varadkar: Britain and Ireland see pathway to possible Brexit deal (Oct 10th)
The market took this meeting and subsequent announcement as deal positive and the pound was bought.
Yes in the couple of week right when the rhetoric coming out of the EU was very negative “no deal can be negotiated, we will not re-visit what’s on the table etc.”
It needed something to break the log jam and it needed the UK to kick start it, thus the expectation when word of the meeting in Liverpool was leaked.
Btw - those expectations turned out to be correct - as they say - the market is never wrong 
Nice link - the crucial question of course is whether the Tories can get an overall majority vs no overall majority (hung parliament).
I see the odds there are a little closer - obviously the second outcome would be UK negative.
Continuing on this, yesterday YouGov poll moved the Cable Higher to 1.29734 and now it is trading at 1.29319.
Yes that poll is respected - they do it on a seat by seat basis - reporting a Tory majority so GBP positive.
It will be interesting how the market reacts when the real poll returns a majority - would the pound be bought out?
“Would it be positive or negative for GBP if Conservatives win election?”
Right now all we can say for certain is it will be massively negative if they don’t.
To be clear, you mean if conservatioes didn’,t get the full majority/hung parliament.
Disclaimer :not an expert
Learning feom this discussuion, I think it won’t move much.
Would love to know what others think.
I think it will be good for GBP
GBP/USD broke resistance and now it’s trading at 1.30822. Different poll results were the catalyst to push pound higher or something else ?
Conservatives are crushing Labours in north.
And here we go +3% in few hours for GBP
Good info is shared here, thanks.
I thought that there may be some negatives in the first 2-3 days, but then all negative outcomes will be compensated and I was right. Actually, currency price don’t depend so much on politics as many people think. Conservatives promise Brexit and investors know about Brexit and they’re prepared, that’s why that wasn’t any negative outcomes. Investors like clearness and conservatives give such clear understanding…