This is getting really interesting, and I’m hoping we see correlation get back in line soon. I’m looking forward to seeing what Pricecharts looks like this WE. Btw, I should post the weekly Pricecharts report later for anyone who has not seen it before. Not suggesting folks use it to trade, but I think it’s interesting.
Looking for a better way to post Pricecharts information
Wife got Argo on PPV. Taking a break tonight. If anyone wants to see the GBP Pricecharts thinng, PM me your email and I’ll forward it. This WE Ill get a better system for charts etc… Great stuff today folks, thank you for making this fun.
Well Argo was really good. Not trading at this point for tomorrow, but for bears, I drew a quick Fib, and thought I’d mention that there is a 79% retracement at 1.3150, with the market at 1.3264 (114 pips away.) Monster bear candle yesterday and current price position lead me to think that tomorrow could be a bear move down to the 1.3150 area. Have not completed a huge weekly range yet, so I’m thinking there could be more bearishness ahead this week. Interested to hear what S/D traders think based on the weekly candles, as I see interesting bull opportunities if we get down to 1.28-1.2850, which would be 127.2 of the move I’m measuring. Getting interesting… Good luck everyone.
2Y2X
Brian
First off, great thread! I just read this from the beginning until now. Really good stuff. But I have to admit, I’m really bummed now. The whole time I was reading, I was thinking to myself, “man he’s over thinking. Talking himself into trades, out of trades, etc,” and then 5 comments from the end, PipNRoll beats me to it!.. Haha! But seriously, it’s like my golf swing. I have a tendency to let my front side fly open when I get tired, but then when I start thinking about it, and how tired I am, and how hungry I am, and how good that beer is going to taste in the clubhouse, I forget to fire my hands and leave the blade open. You said somewhere about midway through, but I’m too lazy to go back and find it, that all your bias from the day before was correct. Take the trade. Trust yourself. You know where price is headed. Just do it! Anyways, take my 2 cents for what it’s worth. A lot less now since PipNRoll beat me to it and flooded the market with a more reputable product, I may have to drop mine to half price…I guess I’m the generic medication…(see what I did there?!)
Again, great thread. Keep it up!
Yup! Great movie loved it! 
I’m not sure what’s happening, thinking of shorting the Cable only because every man & his dog are long & the retailers are almost always wrong… looking for a decent run up into OTE on the Asian range first… Dow Jones USDX painted some railroad tracks on the H1… bit of a worry as it could retrace… dunno.
Keep on truckin! 
The Fibre and Cable have had some correlation since the end of January, look at the 4hr.
I’m interested to see what the net positions of commercials are when the data comes out on Friday.
…that statement is like music into my ears ;)…Love it! Lol…
Thanks!
I’m wrapping up this week tonight, as I think that if I were to try to trade tomorrow, I would just be chasing price. One concern is overtrading, which is a bad thing, and under-trading may not seem much better, but I lacked confidence this week and did not trade several times when I had the bias figured out. On the good side I lost no money, but did I do anything wrong as a trader? The answer is yes I did. By my own process, there were days that I should have felt more strongly about price and had more confidence that I did not have, though the opportunities were there. Clearly went from the extreme last week of jumping at a bad opportunity to not taking several good ones this week. I’m less annoyed at myself, because I did less technically wrong then I did last week. I’m actually somewhat pleased. My goal every day is not to win this challenge; rather it’s to follow a process and the winning will take care of itself. I’m not going to make promises, or say anything about eating crows or any other birds aside from chickens and turkeys. As a handicapper, I’d speculate that I (or anyone else who is willing to do what is required) probably achieves the 2 year, 2 times the balance goal 7.5 times out of 10, all things being equal. Admittedly this should have been a profitable week and it wasn’t; now it’s time to say lesson learned, and let it go.
After I first set up this thread, I said to myself, ‘what did I just do?’ After I made that really bad trade off the pin-bar, I thought ‘oh oh’. But the truth is that I love trading, and want to do this for a living at some point in my life. If I can’t handle focusing on a process with the distraction of turning 5K into 10K in two years, what chance do I ever have if bills were due to be paid based on my trades. There will be wins and there will be losses, but if I follow the process, the challenge will take care of itself.
There were great posts from all of you this week that added to the inspiration I feel to keep this thread going. It’s been two weeks, 1 trade, it was a loser and it was poor, and I’ve learned from it. I’ve been doing this challenge of sorts for one week, the bias analysis went well, but the self conviction was very much lacking. Starting on Sunday, I’ll use the same tools and try to identify opportunities for next week. My preferred trading days are Wednesday and Thursdays, but I’ll keep my eyes open. I’m sure there will be the rare note from my daughter, note from my wife, and a couple of other things to keep it fun here and there. As a thread host, there was one suggestion that I do this on Myfxbook. I’m leaning against it, and answered the post, but I hope the fellow was not put off by the answer. The week prior to last, someone gave me some great stuff in Excel that I just have not had time to do anything with yet, but will. I promise to anyone taking the time to participate or asking a question, that your effort deserves a response, and unless I just miss something, I will always try to respond. If I can possibly help anyone, I will.
We can do this. We can combine and share our knowledge and come away as better traders for it. I’ll joke around here and there, and sometimes it may seem a little out there, but we can all do this.
Some interesting new threads have started in Newbie Island. Check out Woolo’s thread on statistical analysis.
I did not see this, thanks. This can be such a helpful tool.
I’m not going to trade tomorrow, but I did take a quick look at a chart. It looks like Fiber basically touched a 79% retracement today when it hit 1.3160 (never made it down to 1.3150.) If you look at a daily chart with a Slow Stochastic, you can also see a bullish divergence, with the indicator making a lower low that price is not. Price has also broken below the 20pd EMA.
One tool that I don’t use enough are pivots, though I should use them more often. Price is hanging close to the monthly R1, and seems to be getting some support from the weekly R2. I think that if price does get below the 1.31 levels, the S/D folks will start getting interested as well. Couple of nice demand zones down there. As a spectator, I’m interested in what happens tomorrow either way. I’m having some trouble counting the Elliot Waves on a 4H.
I know this post looks like I’m over analyzing, and I probably am. Friday’s remind me of the London close, where you see a counter-trend move (I think Nikita also wrote about this earlier in the week), where instead of the various traders cashing out daily positions after a solid range, there seems to be the weekly traders cashing out and taking their profits, which often makes Friday counter trend.
I’d enter a trade if I had a good idea of which way to expect price to go. Right now, I’m llike 60-40 that tomorrow is bullish, so I’m watching. I’d really like to hear more opinions about it though, what do people think? Will price drop into a bullish retracement versus today’s low, or possibly take out the stops below it and then start moving up?
I’m with you on sitting out on this pair tomorrow. I’d like to jump on it short, but I don’t like the looks of today’s bullish candle. I’m going to see where tomorrow takes us and look again at it over the weekend.
The Fibre might be looking for a bounce.
You’re right about that 79% level and I actually have a support level at 1.3180 that I put in months ago and has served pretty well.
As the cable seems to have made a nice looking swing low (today’s close will tell the tale) and the euro is strengthening against sterling (have a look at eur/gbp) we might be seeing a bit of a bounce.
Friday’s are often what has been said, counter-trend, closing up shop for the week.
Anyone who was long fibre now probably isn’t.
Not me… Cable looks more promising to me.
I was long at cable since yesterday at 1.5260. It went back up around 1.5310/20 last night but I didn’t closed it yet. I should have place a TP right about at 1.5300 or so but I didn’t. Oh well…
We shall see how this Daily candle will close today. I am expecting a retracement (bullish) after the massive sell off from the past few weeks on cable.
Currently, Mr. Cable is on the moved back up again…in which what I like to see
If the pin bar from yesterday is true, we might already hit that support at 1.5130 for now that is why I am bullish on cable.
Daily/Weekly looks like oversold (Stoch.). Need a little breathing after that sell off…
I am also bullish on the pair atm. But not intend to take any trade. May be next week.
It had a nice doji like candle for a reversal, but I expect this to consolidate for awhile before it makes its move back up. Should be interesting none the less.
It’s Friday night and I’m pretty wiped out. Really interesting Pricecharts weekly futures report. For Cable, nearly 20K additional long contracts from the Commercials, and 6K more short contracts. Nearly at the highest net long position in about a year. I need to find some better way to upload these pics and charts in general. I’m using the paint function, but my charts come out poor looking. I have a lot of thoughts for next week, want to hear all of yours, and tons of things I have to do this weekend. Anyone who wants a Pricechart report, please send me a PM with your email. I’m happy to help out.
Yunny on HoG’s thread is quite the S/D fellow, and HoG is doing some interesting research regarding London 1H candles. I will try to add a couple of things to the discussion to try to help as well. Life goes on, and it feels like BP is moving forward.
Now it’s Sunday night and I’m still wiped out. I have to be at work extra early to give a presentation, so I’m going to keep this quick. Like most, (and I just watched a video from a former BP mentor, that I agree with about this week), I think the most likely scenario is for a bullish retracement early this week, followed by a continuation down. I will try to remain ready, if that bias changes, or as I have more of a feel.
Cable is setting up one of those surprise moves up, once all the other money speculating down is in. This reminds me of the doomsayers with the Euro at 1,21, just before it shot up.
Work keeps me pretty busy, and when I started this thread, I had an opinion about usd/cad, which seems to be correct. The trick this week is to turn these bias ideas in to trades (BY FOLLOWING MY PROCESS) and not letting myself trade while thinking about prior days, weeks, or trades. Success is a state of mind.