Hope some folks took advantage of the Fiber bullish move at LO this morning. If you were bullish, and looking at a 15 minute chart at 3-4 AM EST, there was a great chance to go long off a 62% Fib retracement and pick up 60-80 pips. I stayed overnight close to where I work, to give a presentation this morning, and had lots of trouble falling asleep. I’m feeling much better about bias analysis, but I need to get past this litttle trading funk I’m in. It is in NO WAY on purpose to demonstrate anything. This is really because I am a bad trader. But I will get past this an make money.
I would not have traded last night anyway, but I was using my iphone hotspot to get an internet signal for my laptop, and did not have a wire to recharge the iphone, which was running out of energy at 11pm last night.
Hope folks are checking out the testing that Home of Golf is doing on his thread. Good thread, and if you’re just learning to trade, or have been for a while, check out Yunny’s approach to trading
This July will mark two years of trading for me, and aside fronm the typical BP school advice, find a style you like, etc, I would say to any Newbies wanting to learn trading (and I assume you love trading as much as I do) get yourself a trading journal. I have a big spiral notebook that I write ideas, comments, levels, notes to myself (and I keep an Excel log of my entries seperately) etc. Keep a tradeing journal, or for that matter keep a journal for any endevour. I once kept one for weight losss several years back and it worked… Should have kept one for weight maintenance. Welcome being wrong in life, it is how we learn.
Curious…what trading details do you put on your trading journal? Do you keep it short and sweet like this just for fun?
[I]Dear Me, you suck at trading!!!
Dear Me, what a loser!!![/I]
Ohh…I know you remember this one that I wrote last month from the other thread …
[I]Dear Mr Cable, you such a retard with bipolar emotions.
[/I]
Oh how about this… [I]Dear Mr. Fiber, you need to get more fiber in your system so you can lower your blood sugar, cut cholesterol, and may even prevent colon cancer and help you avoid hemorrhoids. While you at it, don’t forget that I am eyeing on a bullish/bearish bias this week and don’t let me down!!!
[/I]
How is this sounds to you?
Actually, I got married so that I could get comments like the above. My wife has that ground covered pretty well. The comments are all aimed at me however, not Mr. Cable.
I use it more for thoughts about why I think pairs will move in a direction, sometimes I paper trade in it by listing sample entry points, sometimes I review why my thought process was wrong from a technical perspective. Last night I wrote myself some reminders to better understand the levels of the dollar index.
I’ll go through it later and see if I can find some sample entries that might be helpful for those interested in what could be entered in a journal. I know you keep one as well, so you’re more than welcome to give some examples PnR.
I just hope I don’t clatter your thread…However,per your request, here is the part 1 of 2…
I have so many examples that I can share in terms of the details of my journals every time I place on a trade. Here are 1 of 2 of my favorite examples back in 2011. It had help me to open my mind and moved forward along the way…
10/25/ 11 – Tuesday.
USD/CAD – Bias Long
Tools: S/R and Fib.
News Events: US Confidence economic news.
Enter: 1.0175 , Time : 10:15AET.
Limit: 30 pips -Target
Stop: 40 pips – Maximum lose.
@ 9AM – US economic news released result down as expected. The pair was already moving over 100 plus pips up (long) where my bias is… Prices are mostly up for the past 1 ½ hour. I went long thinking it will go up some more. However, as soon as I went in the trade, it starts to go back down. I am already down -30 pips but I am still holding on. I widen my stops and limit because I think the volatility will die down soon….I think I can do it and hit that TP that I want!
@ 11A ET – My loses now reduce to -12 pip. I know I am still down but still holding on.
- Down to -3 pips… I will still hold on…
- I am not so sure about this now… moving my stop to -30 pips. @12 A ET - Stop out at -30 pips. LOSE.
[B]Lessons Learn:[/B] The pair was already moving 100 pips before I get in… Don’t chase the price !!! On a positive side, I am glad I moved my stop otherwise I could have lose more.
10/27/11 –Thursday AM
EUR/USD – Bias Long
Tools: S/R, Fib
News Events: EU Summit
50% of the deal was passed early morning in London Session. The price rally up overnight at the Asian Session to more than 150 plus pips. The uptrend continued on to New York Session…
[B]First Trade:[/B] Currently, I am at 50 plus pips gain…
[B]Second Trade:[/B] @ 10 AET. I was down at -17 pips I thought I will be out on my tight stop but it went up again (so far) at +2 pips. @10:31A – I am down again to -19 pips. …1 more pip I am out. It seems in range since 10:18A . @11:11A – got my 2nd TP at +40 pips!!
[B]Third Trade:[/B] @ 11:30A – Fiber still on uptrend. I enter again… I should have hold on to it…still looks promising…I get in again… put my limit at 55 pips hold it till the afternoon… TP hit at +55pips.
[B]Total: +145 pips today!!![/B]
….and after that… I went viral…lol.
After that successful trade, (for the past few days, weeks, months), I over trade, over leverage, over confidence. Anything [B]OVER[/B] you can think off I did it. I stop trading for about 6 months or so last year. I kept my head up high and focus more on how I can do a little better. I read so many books, I’ve watched ICT videos, and other You Tube videos etc. I hardly post in this forum also…just lurking from time to time. Then, towards early October last year, I start posting here while I gradually start trading again. So far, since then, I am doing good keeping my winnings
I still have a lot to learn though… Hope this experience of mine can helped other newbies too…
Ohh…my journal details now are “short and sweet”…j/k…lol
This is really good PnR, and a little bit more structured than I am. It’s funny that how well I do or do not grasp bias totally changes depending upon whether I’m keeping up with the journal. It’s lilke night and day how much better my understanding is when I’m staying up-to-date with it.
I’ve got to find some way now of ensuring that the days that I have a good feel for bias become winning trade days. It’s funny that if one has a very good idea about bias for the next day, it still does not gurantee winning trades… Perhaps it should. It really shows the wisdom of Nikita’s approach that she can keep the whole process very simplified. I suppose that’s another reason why people swing trade.
USDX has interesting points at 82, which is very close to the longer term fib retracement of 62%. Market structure for the dollar index is bullish. 83 would be just above the 79% retracement. For FIber, looking at a trend line and the 20pd EMA, and thinking that this down move is likely to reach 1.300, I will set an order for overnight as follows: Short
Tr: 1.3125 SL: 1.3160 TP: 1.3005 - 33 lots
My bias is still bearish for the Fiber, so this is what I will pursue.
Order did not activate this morning, so I cancelled. I don’t think there are major announcements to add liquidity to EUR until Thursday, although there are USD announcements. I will keep searching for shorts in LO for now
My approach starts with trying to understand what the weekly candle will look like and capturing some of that range. I will sometimes make counter trend trades if I see reason.
My account balance remains at it’s all time low of approx 4950. My total deposits to the account have been $5100. My balance had gotten over 6K in December, and I took three large losses based on unit sizes that were way too large. Two of the losses were gambles based on watching a fundamental online review, that convinced me to go long on USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. I did not wait for a retracement, and just threw money down at a high with large unit sizes. The loss built up quickly so I cut the trade. Everyone else on the planet who was long $/J made money, but this was a poor and greedy trade. The third was a Fiber short trying to pick up a London close trade that was not there. These three gambles in early January are why I have a losing balance, after usually working hard to control risk.
I’m confident that the methods I use are very good for determining daily bias. The problem is that in order to trade LO, it helps to be awake for it. This has me thinking about entries, and possibly applying the bias methods I’ve learned and using a Nikita or S/D entry technique, where the entry points can be a little more predefined then waiting for retracements off of 5 & 15 minute candles when I’m sleeping.
Missed this entry by 3.4 pips at LO, and canceled it anyway around 630am… Anyone out there know how to trade but have trouble with analysis, we should partner up. The question now is, have we seen the market make it’s weekly high or low yet.
When I’m looking for that turtle soup style stop raid entry, especially around the institutional levels, I’ll place the order at the institutional itself or 2 pips below (to cover the spread) and adjust the stop accordingly at the other side to compensate for the move closer to entry. If it is indeed a stop raid, most of the time it will just peak over the old high and then reverse, meaning your SL will be miles away from getting tagged anyway, so the extra few pips you’ve moved closer generally wont matter but ultimately you’ll be in the trade and on the right side of the market to make some profits
Keep at it, you’re getting there, plenty of good analysis in this thread!
Thank you Jonny. I’ve been following you on the ICT thread, and am very impressed with how you’re doing. Good advice that I will listen to as well. I get concerned sometimes that this thread is taking us space rather than contributing. Hopefully I can get things going in a good direction soon and make it more interesting. Please feel free to give any ideas / advice that come to mind.
Hey folks. Doing some testing in my demo account tonight. Interested in a few things right now including better entries utilizing S/D, Swing methods (wife looks happier at that), etc. I am taking a couple of days off from work on Thursday and Friday this week. Am hoping to trade LO Thursday morning if I can stay awake.
Look at a Fib (Fiber), from the low around November 13, of 2012 to the high just past on February first (by the way, check out how often the first week of the month offers the high or the low), notice that the 79% retracement at 1.2885, is at a very interesting point with previous S/R. I know that my stapler could have figured this out already, and probably made more money than I have so far, but I gotta think that 1.29 will be taken out. Just wondering if we’ll see one more reactive retracement first.
This really is acquiring genuinely intriguing, along with I am just intending most of us view correlation get back together in series rapidly. I am just awaiting experiencing what Pricecharts seems like this specific we By the way, I will post the weekly Pricecharts survey in the future pertaining to those who have not really seen the item previous to. Certainly not indicating persons put it to use in order to trade, nevertheless I believe it really is intriguing.
Taking tomorrow (and Friday) off, and am planning to trade LO later tonight. Looking at Fiber, I notice that there would be a 62% retracement of this weeks H/L at 1.32 big fig. Also seeing that 79% would be at 1.3254, which leaves a bit of a big range. Might be setting up a down move for Friday as Thursday could be the 5th candle in a five candle low, which would more likely mean that Thursday is bullish, and sets up a situation where. Friday makes the down move. Fiber seems to want to take out 1.30 on the down side, I think it’s a question of when. Notice that the low on Jan 4, of this year that has not yet been taken out how ever, which if it does, makes an even stronger argument for bearish market structure.
Trying to stay awake and I plan to post more if I trade.
Wound up falling asleep, got up and saw that the market is meandering. The type of day that I expected is not unfolding so far. I took just under 40 dollars in profit, 8/10 of a percent (what a trader) and will keep my eyes open. Current balance is $4,994.30. These types of profits will not get me to my goal, but this type of risk management is crucial I believe.
Check out the down move (15M today) with a fib and check out the 127% extension that was reached. 50+ of the easiest pips that I did not make. Since I can’t go back in time and enter a short at 1.3130, I will add it to the mental bank of knowledge / confidence (where granted my account seems to be overdrawn.) I feel more confident today, than I did nearly two weeks ago, that I will turn this 4994.30 in to 10K by that day in February of 2015. I really think it will be sooner, but that is not the task I am holding myself to.
I’ve had some differing views than the fellow who started the thread (about things unrelated to his thread), but the Statistics in Technical Analysis thread deserves more activity than it’s had, and I hope people are checking it out. Maybe it would be a good thing if people posted some ideas, even if they can’t do any testing in the hopes that others with more time might be able to help with the testing. Let’s get some ideas flowing. I doubt Nikita’s thread needs me to mention it, but if there are any newbies reading this who somehow are not familiar with her price action thread, you would be helping yourself to give the whole thread a good read through
I think will succeed at the challenge I’ve set for myself. No crow eating for anyone; it’s not about that. I’m just too stubborn to let myself fail, I’m too stupid to admit dhttp://forums.babypips.com/profile.php?do=editpasswordefeat, which has actually benefited me over the years. A couple of folks have posted very kind words about the analysis so far, and I really appreciate the encouragement.
Today was not a good day for the five bar low strategy, and the daily candles look like a bearish continuation is setting up.
Am seeing some really good reasons to short the Fiber tomorrow. USDX divergence on the 1h, MS is down, bearish candle formation, price is poised for a short. There is also am interesting divergence with the Slow Stochastic on the daily that points bullish, which is of mild concern. Check out S/R on the USDX as well, which points to bullish movement as well (bearish Fiber.)
Respectable win today. I entered short 50 units at 1.30851, and took half profit at 1.3050, and the rest at 1.30065. for a total profit on the trade of $284.25. Combined with yesterday’s embarrassing win of $43.50, that gives a profit for the week of $327.75. I will call it a week from a trading perspective and try to do some educational activities (trade wise) after driving my daughter to school. I think there could be more room for the Fiber to go down today, possibly very much so, but I’m very uncertain. I did not expect today’s move so far to happen as fast as it did.
The week started with a balance of $4,950.80, adding $327.75 gives a new balance of $5278.55, for an increase of 6.62%. Not incredible, but every journey must have a start. Hope everyone is enjoying trading today.
Lastly, I realize that last night I did not announce the levels I was trading at ahead of time. I use two screens to trade, and on my other screen I am looking at a GFT (US customers are still using Dealbook360) Customer Transaction Detail Statement. My point is that as things go forward, I can easily document any claims (assuming they are positive, negative claims are more easily believed) showing a detail statement, I’d just edit out my personal info. I really doubt that anyone is actually following this challenge. I also doubt anyone cares enough to actually want me to document proof of anything. However, just so that there is no doubt, I will post a transaction statement later.
In your honor I am cranking up AC/DC’s “Back in Black.” It somehow just feels right. :59:
I still think you tend to overthink and look at too many things that I would describe as hocus-pocus because I cannot see a trading edge in using them but you made a heck of a lot more this week than I did so keep doing whatever is working! :o
Now I am just looking for reasons to use emoticons. :27: Maybe because I am genuinely happy for you? Maybe because I am genuinely sad for me? Maybe because I need to lay off the caffeine?:44:
