Nice!!
Good for you. I didn’t trade this week so 6.62% is pretty good compare to the interest that a regular bank is giving you… Keep it up!
Thanks John, really appreciated! Great song choice, it does feel better not to have (for the moment at least) an overall loss, but there is a long way to go. At the moment I’m blasting ‘Clutching at Straws’ by Marillion, because I have the house to myself, and my wife and daughter (and usually anyone) don’t appreciate them…
I’m totally open to simplifying trading anyway that I can. If there are specific things that I mention that anyone thinks do not make sense to look at (or if I should be looking at something that I’m not) I am grateful for any suggestions and will consider.
From VSA patterns, S/D zone patterns I’ve seen as well as the 'Market Maker" patterns I try to use, I think that we’re all doing things that are very similar. I really like S/D zones, and just don’t know enough about VSA to make real sense out of if yet.
By the way, since you mentioned “Hocus Pocus.” Here is some really good ‘Hocus Pocus’ by Focus. Not sure if it’s OK to post music links here, but I hope folks like this.
Focus - Hocus Pocus - YouTube
Focus - Hocus Pocus - YouTube
and as suggested:
acdc back in black - YouTube
acdc back in black - YouTube
It should be fine to post those links. If they aren’t trading related I don’t know what is.
It’s been years (decades) since I have heard Focus doing that song. It always feels like the Swiss Miss cocoa girl meets Molly Hatchet or something LOL
As for what I think about your trading style… who cares? Just because I can’t do it that way, don’t want to do it that way or can’t see something that you do means just that. I can’t do it that way, I don’t want to do it that way and definitley do not see what you do. It doesn’t mean you are wrong. It may imply that I am but that is nothing new.
In keeping with the theme of when of dinosaurs and long haired hippies walked the earth… Keep on Truckin’
Also, my interest in your thread: 1) I am hoping you do well and 2) I just may learn something along the way.
Just to ensure that anyone following this thread with regard to the challenge feels comfortable that I am being totally forthcoming. In the report is also the trade following the start of this thread, but prior to my saying that I will double the balance. This other trade was the Cable pin-bar loss. Also note that because I set two profit points most of the time, I set these up as two tickets, but consider them one trade. I should just learn to stagger my exits.
Am thinking bullish tomorrow for the Fiber. Entry 1.3005, SL 1.2975. Unfortunately, I don’t have time this evening to go through the steps to get comfortable, so I’m going to let this one go bye and watch tomorrow morning. I’d look for 50 pips 1.3050 out of the move if it unfolds… No play for me tonight[B].
Follow Up:[/B]
Initial direction was correct, but price did not get low enough to activate trade. No play regardless…
Serious move in the Dow today. Looking at USD /CAD on the daily, check out the interesting trend line high that goes back a couple of years. Combine that with COT data pointing towards increased foreign currency long contracts, including the CAD, which is bearish for $/C. However, on the 1H there is a buy signal coming from a support level, fib retracement and indicator divergence. With the CAD at 1.0260, I would expect a rise going into LO to 1.0291.03, with potential for a larger bear move by the $. I’m not playing this, just trying to see if my understanding is correct. By the way, there could be an interesting Fib sell signal just above 1.0305… This will be fun to watch.
Longer term Fiber signals are bullish, such as an interesting indicator divergence on the daily. I remain bearish in the shorter term however. Could be a rise in the Asian session to 1.3085-1.3105, before a drop for Wednesday.
For the overnight, I’m going to sit tight and see what develops. My confidence is coming back slowly, but I want to be very choosy with the orders I set up as I’m sleeping when they activate usually. Good luck folks.
2Y2X
Cad should get moving tomorrow with their rate announcement as well…
I’ve been pondering the Fiber for tomorrow. Currently, market structure is down, and I was expecting a little more out of this down move that began in the beginning of February. However the tools that I would use to confirm a bearish continuation are just not cooperating. I’ve been looking at some things which actually make a good bullish argument. Now Friday is unpredictable due to NFP which I usually won’t trade. I’m coming off a good week last week and I’d really like to follow it up by catching what I expect to be a liquid session tomorrow. I think I’m going to make the harder choice of not entering an order tonight. If I see an opportunity to scalp a few pips tomorrow, I’ll give it a shot, but for now since I’m not sure what the play is, I’m spectating.
2Y2X
I am taking a look at Fiber for tomorrow, and will try to post a few ideas tonight. Have to do eliptical for a while first. My initial bias for Friday is bullish, and I will follow up with some details a bit later tonight.
Fiber long 30 units Tr 1.3050 SL 1.3006 TP 1.3150.
I took a loss this morning tryng to go long on Fiber. I was not planning to keep my order open for NFP today, but I slept in today as I’m working from home due to the storm. Should have woken up and cancelled it. Bottom line is that I own the loss.
Mostly, the long term signals that I look at were saying buy, and the short terma signals were not conclusive. In the end I thought that for the week to have a reasonable range, today would have needed to be bullish, and USDX was showing bearish signs based on the daily candles. My balance right now is at $5,154.35.
This was a losing week dollar wise, but it was a good week overall. For the most part, my feel for bias is getting to where it should be, and the biggest problem that I’m having is not entering orders because I’m trying not to lose instead of trying to win. There were two solid scalps that I should have made. If my assesment of bias was wrong most of the time, the distance I would need to travel to fix my trading issues would be much further than it is now. None the less, it’s three weeks in to this challenge, and it’s time to start making real progress.
I assume that everyone has seen the COT reports, which are indicating that there is a looming change in direction for the dollar, versus foreign currencies which look as if they’ll turn bullish. Also, I have not been following the Cable that closely lately, but if you look at a long term Fib extension, starting on Jany 12, 2012, versus the high on Jan 1, 2013, we just hit the 127.2 extension on Friday. If you’re a newer trader and you happen to be reading this, and you really want to do something positive, spend a weekend or two looking at retracements and extensions.
Also on the daily, for Fiber, we’ve seen some support at the 161.8 extension, which if we use the method of starting the FIb a little lower just above the 1.31 figure, we see that the support point I’m referencing becomes 127.2.
Work is going to be very busy for a few weeks, but I am going to be as active as possible as a trader. To make things worse, my company has blocked BP, which has me very angry.
The last two nights I’ve entered orders prior to going to sleep and then cancelled them. Both were buy orders, and Monday nights but would have resulted in a nice win on Tuesday, and Today’s buy would have been a loss. I mention these, because this is a part of my trading world. Both orders were made when I thought I understood the next days bias, and both were cancelled when I decided that although I thought I understood bias, the actually signals to enter the trades were not there. To be honest, my feelings about bias are more often correct, but I try not to trade based on feelings. I think I am actually under-trading right now.
Looking at a daily chart of Fiber shows a 127% retracement at the figure of 1.28. Although longer term indicators are bullish, I keep thinking that the historic support of 1.29 will be taken out (at least) before we start to trend back up. I will look fo set up a sell order tonight, but am probably going to trade (including scalps) and post about them after. I think that announcing trades ahead of time adds a little bit of pressure that I don’t want unless I feel really confident about a set up.
In summary of the first few weeks, I feel pretty good about bias, but I think that my entries have been cowardly and poor. I’m not afraid of critique, and would be interested if others feel that I am just not getting in to enough trades.
I am thinking about a short for tomorrow, but thinking that the market will turn bullish sometime in the near future after that.
2 years - 10 K, I feel good about this.
I set up a sell order last night to activate at 1.2995. I set this order up last night around 930 pm est when price was at approx 1.2970. The highest price went was 1.2980, and then it dropped. I missed entry by 15 pips.
I’m going to go back and look at the bias ideas I’ve had this past month, and I’ll try applying one of the techniques that Nikita teaches for entry, such as the break of the daily plus x pips. Days like today do bother me, especially as there was a nice retracement this morning to enter off of.
My basis for the short bias today was market structure being down, noticing the bearish fib extension as mentioned above, and the expected continuation of the weekly range. I think 1.29 gets taken out by 10 am est, with the possibility of a continuation to 1.2860-1.2880. Depending on how busy my morning is at work, I might look to scalp a short off a retracement if I think the day will wander down further.
No scalp today, as I was very wrong about the Fiber move continuing. I’ve set up a small short in Cable overnight, so we’ll see.
My job will be getting really hectic the next few weeks until the second week in April, so I’m going to try an experiment during that time. I am going to enter order for the following day that are based on a break of the daily candle plus / minus X pips, using the current bias methods I use. I will limit my trades to no more than 4 per week, with no more than 3 losses allowed. I will look to take some profit after 20-30 pips, and let some of the trade run. The idea is to try to get more out of the way I approach daily bias, as I just cannot be awake looking for retracements during LO.
Took a small loss on Cable. I controlled risk fairly well; as the loss was approximately $100 giving me a current balance of 5,056.34. My bias was just wrong. It’s a month into this challenge and I’ve made only $100.00 overall and missed several good opportunities. Sadly, today’s loss has my overall personal trading back in the red, as I initially deposited $5,100 into my account.
Prior to starting this thread, I knew that my overall issue was missing trades, as well as over thinking a bit. I’m going to look at this past month over the weekend, and try to figure out what I should have done differently.
I feel a little guilty about boring people with this thread. I notice that the last couple of weeks my analysis has been rushed, and not as in depth as it should. Looking at the daily candles for Cable shows how poor last nights short was. If I were down 10%-20% at this point, I’d be more concerned than I am.
I don’t think you’re boring anybody.
It’s nice to see an honest account of someone trying to trade.
Have you consider expanding your currency pairs to AUD/USD and or NZD/USD?
I have notice that most of the “actions” were towards in the late afternoon to the evening. You can probably catch maybe 20-50 pips depending on the volatility on that day but worth checking out especially if your work is getting in the way and have a limited time to trade to be in your computer to watch it. It takes a lot of practice though …. I am still trying to get a feel for this pairs too but I think it will work …just a thought.
It doesn’t matter what currency pairs you trade in as long as it can get you some pips and make money on it 
It’s nice to know I have some company! I’m only trading one pair at the moment and use about 6 hours of screen time a day (if I don’t oversleep have other obligations) and it really stings when I miss a good opportunity, either from over or under analysis. I’ve found that doing a weekly review, really digging deep and asking critical questions help build knowledge and confidence for future trades. And of course, you build a better memory of how exactly price moved in the past week.
Just stumbled on your thread Horgaste. Nothing really to contribute other than to say sorry I forgot to name check you on one of my other posts as part of my thank-you’s to everyone. I uhm, posted a whole bunch of analysis leading up to and post NFP. Why didn’t you listen to it?!?! :28:
No, I jest. Each trader must always trade their own analysis and I certainly made mistakes today. I do however hope we can somehow help each other now and in the future. You were one of the first and few people I’ve ever ‘friended’ on this site, so you have a special place right there.
I’ve blown two sizeable accounts, so don’t feel bad about anything you’re doing in the present. If anything, remember to walk away and trade only when your thoughts are clear and your qi is positive.