Price Action That Matters

Morning star according to Three’s Not A Crowd – Triple Candlestick Patterns

Read more: Three’s Not A Crowd - Triple Candlestick Patterns | Japanese Candlesticks | Elementary

Hi Guys,

This is my first set up here : EURUSD Daily chart - Short trade possibility.


Pros:
A) There is clear support line which can now act as resistance (1.3800 area has a lot of history)
B) The price if it close below the averages (8&21) show us that the pushing down momentum is in place.

Cons:
A) The volume is not big enough relative to previouse candles, but - the big amount of volume (two candles before) show us there was buyers vs sellers fight and the candle closed as indecition candle (Doji one), then two candles after were FB of 1.3800 area and last one even BEEB.

B) Not clear Swing point or even not at all a swing point :frowning:

C) 1.3680 resistance is very close, so maybe should move to BE at this area.

Another Pros can be the close of today’s BEEB below yeterday low.

Chill trading !

*How can i post images with better resolution?

Hi arthur, for a 1st post that it some great analysis, I’m guessing you posted this before the candle closed, if so be careful. The resolution is pretty good to be honest. How much experience do you have with volume? I agree with your analysis on volume not the biggest. Just depends how much faith you have in volume as being a indicator.

Overall I think the trade can work just depends how you manage it.

All the best

Darth

Hi Darth,
Actually i started to work with volume few months ago, after Aaron’s post about the volume. It can be great tool sometimes to help you to decide which way to go. It is not a crucial factor, but it defenetly helps me and I( am still learning when exactly it can help me.
Practice my friend, practice and patience :slight_smile:

Yeah I’ve started to use it too read this great book called volume price analysis. Discribes the relationship between PA and volume. After reading it I started to back test it and spoted how many times volume gave warnings on new trends and breakouts. Tried trading with it and got burnt lol, but if used in the right context I think it can be a successful tool.

Darth

Yea man I was in the same boat after reading the book a few months ago. Got hit bad with volume based breakouts. It’s why I use volume as a confirmer for confluence instead. It’s safer for me to see a big spike that’s sticking out as opposed to guessing where the anomaly of VPA is.

The book in itself is a great read to learn about volume, not a single doubt in that, but some of the methods just didn’t work for my personality. I picked out the ones that would fit me and inputted it into my trading plan. If only we could backtest emotions lmao.

IF ONLY! lol yeah most of it stuck with me and I can see how you could just trade it though like anything wold take some practice. But like you I’ve taken the parts that i liked (validated large/small candles, spoting false breaks with large/small volume and my favorite seeing when the smart money are wading in a great example of that is with gold around the 1150 mark last year).

Cheers

Darth

I took NZDCHF pin bar. Wasn’t sure if I should set my TP at red or green, but ended up setting at green.


Only now I realized my green TP is above RN 0.7700. Price almost touched that RN before bouncing down. Went from 75 pips to 25 pips. :smiley: Bad decision on my TP part.

Anyway, stoploss is already at BE so I’ll let it run for better or worse.

Im in the EURNZD letting it run to 1.58 atm but it also had the same sort of bounce. Both have nice high volume pinbars on the 4HR going the opposite direction off of reliable S/R but I’m holding onto my trade cause I went in for a reason. It’s better BE than loss though so I wouldnt say you made a bad decision but a good one moving to BE :slight_smile:

Hey, you get the whole low volume testing and no supply theories? I could understand it while viewing charts historically but could never implement it real time. There was also an interesting concept showing volume not by candle but by price. I thought that was REALLY interesting. I forgot what it was called though.

I wish I could trade the metals…Gold looked so tasty…forgive me (wipe mouth)

If it closes and holds below 1.36955 it should continue down to 1.36450, around there it could stall and bounce higher, or failing that, it will continue on down to 1.35388 or there about.

There was a bearish engulfing on the H4 chart off a trend line, I actually took that position to cover a long position that went wrong. I took an IB just before the engulfing candle, but didn’t take notice of the long upper wicks…

It is also rejecting a monthly trend line.

Anyway, this trade R:R is very good, I have taken 50% profit to cover my last loss and am now running a free trade, possibly targeting 1.35388, but will take profit along the way.

35 pip stop for a possible 240 pip reward.

Everything is based on a mathematical sequence, which is how I get the levels… Please don’t take this as trading advice as there is every possibility I could be wrong.

An article I just came across which I think is worth sharing:

"I caught a stomach infection! Who knows where I got it from…

But it was a really bad one, I spent 3 days on bed! fever, throwing up, head ache, stomach ache and many other aches…

Long story short, not the best 3 days of my life…

Now I’m back to normal… feeling great, ready to trade, so on and so forth…

But what I really wanted to share with you is something that kept me motivated during my sickness…

[B]I knew that at some point I was going to get well, I didn’t know if the next day or two I was going to be ok… but that image motivated me to do what ever was in my hands to get well… [/B](like taking my pills on time, eating what my doc recommended, etc)…

And it really worked, even with that headache, etc when I pictured myself doing something being “well” made me stronger…

And it occurred to me… [B]What if you could do the same thing with your trading?[/B]

For instance, lets say you are trading who is still struggling to get consistent results… close your eyes, picture yourself doing something you will be able to do when you achieve consistency (i.e. spending quality time with your family, etc).

I’m pretty sure that, it is going to help you do what it is necessary (in your hands) to get there…"

Having an edge:


Hahaha, love this Henry!

And thank you for helping us construct that bike :35:

God bless!

This one looks like worth trying :slight_smile:

The plan is to get it short to the ~94.45 area and look there for long PA formation. I know that it goes against the trend but the CT PA looks pretty good to me.


Pros:

A) Psychological BRN rejection as Inverted Hummer

B) PB formation is bigger than previous candles

C) PB closed inside the previous candle

D) The volume on this PB formation is bigger than whole week volumes before.

Cons:

A) CT trade

B) Although it PB the price closed above the open price.

Plan is to take short on Monday, few hours after the market opens. Go to the 95.000 and then maybe move to BE. TP is at ~94.45.

What do you think?

Chill Trading!!!

yeah I understand it in real time but i take it with a pinch of salt. Yeah I can’t remember the concept either but tbh learning price over time is challenging enough for me atm lol.

I do like gold. :wink:

Darth

Hi Krugman,

I just want to drop by and say hello. Seems like all is still well here. :smiley:

BTW, I’m taking my CMT exam next month, let’s just say I’m confident with my technical ability after all those crazy Forex discussions with you guys. I’m hoping that next year I’ll be a fully certified CMT, and also do well with my CFA prep. How about your own exam prep, Cap?

Cheers!
Will

Hey WM! What’s a CMT?

I’m looking at NZDUSD right now. I think I’ll give it a 3.5 star but it depends on how it closes in a few hours.

Pro - double top, divergence, reach high point that haven’t been reached for a year, plenty of room down to 0.85
Con - Pin is rather small, not nice looking pin yet but it’s still forming.

Hi, Panupat! I thought you’re away right now to become a monk? CMT is ‘Chartered Market Technician’, Panupat. Basically, a certification for professional Technical Analysts.

Yeah, that looks possible, Panupat. I’ll shorten the TP by 20 - 30 pips just to be safe though, as 0.85 level looks somewhat ambitious.