Risk Events for Week of 10/27/2013
Sometimes itâs easier to see it laid out on a graph. The triangle apex can act as a S/R level in the case of price falling back after breakout. If you went long on the breakout, putting your S/L below the apex can be a logical spot. I showed the area where price would have needed to break out to have the highest probability of success. If it breaks out now, statistically it will be a weaker breakout and higher chance the breakout will reverse. If it does break out and reverse(blue line), you can watch for price action off of the apex.
Iâm not sure if anyone else had their on this pin bar but it was one I was watching going into today. It was a pinbar that had formed off a nice trend line and horizontal area. The pin bar wasnât amazing and the overall setup was ok, but it was a 2.5 - 3 star trade that I would have considered taking on a retracement. I see price has already shot higher before the market has opened. Even though it is an opportunity missed, traders should still keep there eyes on these types of signals and see how they play out as it helps to develop your price action trading skills.
Wow! I got your point, thx for that. I was thinking, how come you have last white pinbar on that chart and I donât⌠And THAN I understood what live forex rates are for!
So correct me if im wrong, but if im in NY time zone, doesnt the week start at 5pm. On my 4hr charts i have a candle that is at 1300. I would think the first candle would be at 1700?. What am i missing here?
Hey BA !
Itâs not that good. It used to show price movement during the weekend but it doesnât anymore. It only starts about 2-3 hours before the average broker starting time.
I know previously someone already posted these setup.
I decided to take these 2 setups,
EURAUD weekly BUEB
Pros:
-formed at swing low
-recent up trend
Cons:
-minor resistance
4 stars
AUDCHF Weekly BEEB
Pros:
-down trend
-formed at swing high , within resistance area
Cons:
-there is a minor support causing R/R not so good (but with recent downtrend, I will move my SL to BE once it hit half profit)
4 stars
Shane
I have nothing negative to say about these setups. You seem pretty aware of the risk so itâs fine. The only question I have is: did you split the risk ?
Yes I did. =) Thanks for the reply
Hey Eternal, did you end up staying in that EURAUD trade over the weekend? If so it looks to be playing out in your favor right now.
I did with a fear of being gaped during the weekend but I didnât close it, I stuck to the plan
Yes it turned green this morning hope it wonât reverse on me, there is a big upward pressure (although I feel it is giving in)
I would really love to hear your opinion on why you didnât take the trade
USDCHF 12 Hour PinBar
USDCHF has been in a downtrend recently and broke resistance @ 0.9839 and then retraced to form a 12 hour pin bar rejected by both the horizontal S/R and the EMA 8
Pros
- With the trend
- high time frame
- confluence between EMA8 and horizontal S/R
- nice R:R
- volume increase on pin bar
Cons
- price has not be here in a long time so i am not really sure about my TP area
Rating 3.5/5
Cool analysis, EternalNewB.
My one comment would be that, taking into account how this support zone goes back to February 2012 as a long-term swing low, I would be hesitant to sell into it. Right before that pin bar, one perfect and one acceptable hammer formed, indicating at least a small range in which price might consolidate for now. More likely though, I suspect it to rise first from this support area before a next attempt at breaking it, if that is what price wants to do 
Take care and safe trading!
Thank you for the reply
You mean my S/R zone is too high ? because, for me, price closed below it (I am still struggling at time to have a correct S/R area)
but yes I do agree this zone has been much more a swing high than a swing low.
Hi, Iâm Steve. I thought Iâd just post a quick hello as I have just finished reading all the posts in the thread from the beginning.
Awesome job youâve done Aaron and with your new website too which Iâve just signed up to.
Looking forward to much learning.
Cheers, Steve.
No I think your S/R is perfect but as is the case many times with these long-term support areas, price doesnât necessarily respect them to the pip, so this price action so close to it might still signal a bullish move soon.
I will however have a good laugh if it just shoots down from here, anything is possible, all about probabilities and your trading edge! 
I see Well it seems I need to learn about âhammersâ then 
I am prepared this time, a loss will not sting (yea I can say that with confidence this time)
Cheers
Thatâs great man, good luck and weâll catch up with this one again soon.
Cheers!
Hello Steve and welcome
Enjoy the PA ride, it might be bumpy but it sure is funny
Hello, friends!
If you use MT4 or MT5 you can install an indicator which will tell you the position relative to your Account Balance, The Risk in Percentage and your Stop Loss:
Position Size Calculator for MetaTrader
It is a very useful tool for commodities and others strange fx pairs if you donât want to calculate the pip value.
Have a great week to you all!