Hi everyone !! I need some advice on what I am doing right now … in late few months I found it very useful to use price action and stochastic to confirm trade entry and trend ( up when above 200Ma) it was so good. Then last week was disaster to me most USD pairs burn me down but I still follow my rule I notice shooting star on H4 or even D1 and price are on down trend (under 200Ma) both H4 and D1 But then it was not coming down it was going up because of USD news were all bad
in this case price action and stochastic were giving fail signal to me so I am stuck now I am not sure if what I am doing right or wrong and should I still keep it up
thanks everyone
Hi, did you try programming this idea and backtesting in the historical data? Regards Greg
As a general rule, technical indicators like stochastic oscillators, RSI, MACD, MA’s etc. are unable to generate valid entry signals.
Recently, almost all currencies have moved counter to their long-term trends - AUD and NZD up, USD down. This inherently means that either most indicators will now be showing market conditions which have been superceded by more up to date price action, or different indicators will be showing opposing market conditions. In such situations they are pretty unhelpful at finding trades.
I never heard of it so could you please elaborate more
So could you please make any suggestions for me dear
Yes of course, this follows from my points on indicators.
Take your entry signals from the price chart features. Use indicators to confirm longer-term price tendencies such as trend. An uptrend is the simplest chart pattern and one of the most powerful. The trend’s power lies in the compulsion it indicates for price to continue moving in the same direction - the most probable thing that price will do in an uptrend is rise.
Many indicators will confirm that the price chart has entered an uptrend, but once the uptrend is in place and has been running for a long time, many indicators simply don’t add anything new. But when the trend is in place, and you can see this on the price chart, why would you need an indicator anyway?
The most important time to not use an indicator would be when you’re trying to spot where price will reverse. New traders are impressed by the dramatic opportunities that reversals seem to offer. But these rarely work. Indicators cannot reliably tell you when price will reverse.
I prefer price action trading without any indicator.
I am still not yet fully understand this dear … so from your idea I should just only focus on price action ?? But when the trend change it is hard to notice especially like last week every USD pairs change trend …
Focus mostly on price action to identify the long-term price tendency and to find entry points. The highest probability entries will usually give trades that follow the longer-term trend. If there isn’t a clear trend, wait until there is or find another target.
Indicators can help confirm a trend is in place and how fast or consistent or powerful one trend is compared to another.
How can you say it was hard to see what the USD was doing? Most USD pairs made strong counter-trend moves that day and most days ever since. So did AUD and NZD. The currencies and pairs that were trending most reliably 2+ weeks ago have made the most dramatic counter-trend moves. Its important to see D1 price charts even if you trade off shorter time-frame charts.
In order to be not caught out by price moves against an uptrend its quite often a reliable tactic to place an entry order higher than where price has fallen to. That way, if price rises, you will be long in the uptrend: if price
continues to fall in a counter-trend move, your order will not be triggered at all.
You answered your own question. Don’t trade during news releases
I did not … I trade since Monday and during that time price gave a shooting star under 200ma on H4 to confirm down trend to me and on D1 price was also under 200ma that is why I place sell on most USD pairs such as AU NU EU then price not come down it went up until Friday
You based your trade on a candlestick alone?
So in this case are those pairs just move because of news then resume it previous trend (down) or change to up trend ?? I just wanna confirm dear because I still see price show a lot of uncertainty and shooting star to resume down trend …
You just write code where you describe your idea condition and test it. If you don’t know nothing, about coding, someone should write it for you.
How do think indicator will change this situation help you to predict trends better? Indicators are lagging i.e. just another representation of past price behaviour.
Actually I have no idea why AUD and NZD rose while USD fell, nor whether it will continue or whether they will all go back into their respective long-term trends against each other and the other currencies.
Like I said, I find it rewarding to place orders with the direction of the underlying trend from the D1 charts, but using an entry order at a level which price will have to go through in order to show me it is resuming its trend. This is just a version of buying the pull-backs. I find the best place to set a buy order in an uptrend is above the daily highs made during a pull-back - if price goes up it hits my order, if price goes down, the order is never triggered and I have no loss.
Thanks much this means a lot me so I can get clear understanding:) I also follow D1 trend but always get confuse when D1 is on uptrend but H4 showing down trend I am not sure where to follow or should I just wait to see reverse candle on H4 to go up so I can buy ??? Thanks again my friend
Myself, I never take a position against the D1 trend. Somebody told me once you should be able to see what’s happening on a chart from the opposite side of the room. If you need an indicator to tell you what the chart says, this is the wrong chart. If there isn’t a trend, I don’t take a trade.
Thanks tommor I will try to apply this and see what I have done wrong in the past most of the time I see the whole things in different way to what you have mentioned here and now I realize that I miss a lot of things
So what is your suggestion and idea ple