BINARY OPTION TRADE WITH PREDICTION
So, CAD’s Ivey PMI was coming up, and I predicted
Short Term lift in CAD based upon this:
So I took a Short Term (15 minute) CloseOption PUT
in USD/CAD based on the antiipated rise, and that trade
looked like this:
That platform has a 70% payout on any wager up to $1000 in
increments of $1 (minimum wager).
IT WAS A WINNING TRADE. The significance here is that even
on minor News Events when we can predict direction, then
we can use the precision of the Binary Option to WIN (or, of course,
we could LOSE) based on the Analytics predictions in FOREX. 
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OVER-VALUED CAD POISED TO DROP ON FRIDAY
CAD has Employment News on Friday. On a 6 week basis,
we see that CAD has broken out, and is likely over-valued.
Note: there is a lot of Holiday rubbish in that data
extending back across the recent Holiday period.
On Friday’s employment for CAD it is, therefore, reasonable
to assume the CAD Currency breakout will relax, and
possibly significantly, if Employment is neutral or even
negative.
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With News is a scalping… or no more than 20 minutes and done!! With no stop loss
Yes, that is often the case that the move takes place quickly, and you
can close out in 20 minutes. And it is also true that Price may retrace
eventually back to the baseline, and unless you close in 20 minutes
or so (just a notional time) you can lose what you would have gained.
On the other hand, although it is true that some of these trades are
best handled as “scalps” for less than half an hour; or even a 5 minute
hold time… it is also often the case that it is to your benefit to hold
longer.
After all, if the market has “set up” a “bubble” for a couple of days,
then the collapse of that bubble could take several hours.
There are as many possibilities as there are types and significances
of the various News Events which we consider.
I have originally pointed to events which might yield in the range
of 20 - 100 PIPs in some Currency Pair, associated with the
Target News Currency. But lately, with the advent of CloseOption
binary options, I’ve been considering trading some of the
"minor" news events which might “shake the market” only a
few PIPs…
I find it interesting that these minor News Events have some
predictability as well, using the same concepts and methods. 
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FIRST NFP OF THE YEAR
[Edit] that is Non Farm Payroll in US
We nailed the directionality of USD,
but response was muted due to preceding
Holiday period. (RED is USD)
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MINOR NEWS EVENT TRADING WITH BINARY OPTIONS
JPY Current Account. We see JPY elevated, and so we expect
a minor amount of weakening. So we use a Binary Option
CALL on USD/JPY (which will RISE if JPY weakens)…
[EDIT] Here’s the outcome of the Binary Option CALL…
on USD/JPY, a WIN with a 4-5 PIP gain… With a
Binary, only a fraction of a PIP will give you the WIN
(or LOSS if you’re wrong) LOL
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MINOR NEWS EVENT JPY MONEY SUPPLY
Currency JPY shows an elevation prior to the “no change”
news announcement, as seen here, along with my commentary
and predictions.
I won the CALL (aka BUY, or LONG trade) options on EUR/JPY, as predicted
So I WON my CALL option Trades in EUR/JPY easily !!!
[EDIT] Here’s the Currency Divergence Setup ahead of the
News, and the weakening of JPY in the aftermath.
NOTE: the news was “no change”, as is often the case !!!
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USD RISES ON FAVORABLE CRUDE OIL NEWS
Ahead of the news, we saw USD devalued slightly in the setup
prior to Crude Oil News.
On the News, which was also favorable, USD strengthened.
USD does not move much, so we need to anticipate slow movements
and allow the trade more time to work out.
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USD RETAIL SALES SETUP AND RESPONSE TO NEWS
I didn’t trade this one, but the trade direction was obvious
from this data on a 24 hour Divergence chart.
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PREDICTING BANK OF JAPAN RATE DECISION
Ahead of the event, as you can see from the image, JPY
was artificially over-valued, creating a “bubble” which
was burst on the News.
This bubble will gradually resolve itself over the next
few hours.
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PREDICTING THE BANK OF CANADA RATE DECISION
A very clear Currency setup occurred prior to the decision,
so it was obvioius CAD (yellow) would be de-valued on the
News Event, so this was an easy prediction.
[edit] Here is the movement of CAD/JPY on the
Bank of Canada Rate decision, showing 10 PIP marks
using Coinexx (which is GMT+2 server time)
so 15:00 GMT appears as 17:00 on the display.
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PREDICTING AUD WILL RISE ON EMPLOYMENT NEWS
…I’ll report on the result later…
[RESULT] Initial move is as predicted, with a 30+ pip move AUD/USD:
[EDIT] and here is the AUD Currency move, as expected
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PREDICTING EUR ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
EUR is positioned to lift on Consumer Confidence…
[UPDATE] In this case, EUR did not move and even
slightly weakened. No further EUR news until tomorrow
at which time, we would continue to expect EUR to
then rise, with multiple news events.
In other words, News doesn’t always drive the currency,
especially on minor news events
Above, EUR (the green line) can be seen as relatively
weak.
A BUY of EUR/JPY or EUR/CAD would be a fairly
good idea for a medium term hold, based on the data.
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SCALPING ON A BINARY OPTION USING CURRENCY DIVERGENCE
For scalpers, opportunities exist for Scalping a sensitive Binary
here showing CloseOption testing on a live account; by using
Currency Divergence, here anticipating reconvergence of 2
Currencies AUD and JPY to drive movement of the AUD/JPY Pair.
[edit] This could also be used with Nadex Binaries, which
operate in a very different way, but potentially more profitably.
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PREDICTING CAD RETAIL SALES ONE HOUR FROM NOW
This is going to be a difficult decision, but our consensus
would be that CAD will weaken on the Retail News.
This is a difficult decision because CAD is roughly mid-range
in its positioning for the week. So it takes some thinking…
The News is 1 hour away, as I write this, and Selling CAD/CHF
could be a good pairing to choose. There are other pairings,
such as Buy EUR/CAD or GBP/CAD, but I’ve personally
chosen to Sell CAD/CHF using a PUT option on CloseOption
dot com .
These 3 possible Currency Pairings for CAD
appear the most promising… Details to come,
Watch this space ( 12:37 GMT now ) for the News
Event outcome at 13:30 GMT.
We always try to get in BEFORE the event, and never
during the volatility which often occurs…
[UPDATE] 10 minutes before the CAD Retail News…
[ UPDATE 14:00 GMT ] CAD is currently NOT dropping,
probably due to the mixed Retail news where Core
Retail was weaker; but “normal” ?? Retail was stronger ??
Whatever that means… LOL
Well, CAD’s not called “loonie” for nothing !! LOL
Finally, we’re seeing CAD relax… And, don’t forget,
this is a Friday so weirdness rules apply
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PREDICTING USD ON THE FOMC RATE NEWS
Here is the trend of USD ahead of FOMC so we predict
USD will weaken. However, USD does not move readily,
so the weakening may occur more gradually.
Using a Divergence view from 72 hours into the past, we can
see that NZD could be a good secondary Currency to form
a tradable pair, on the expectation that USD will weaken.
NZD/USD is an inverse pair to USD so USD weakening is
associated with a rise in NZD/USD Pair.
[RESULT] Basically USD did almost NOTHING on the
FOMC News. A slight dip and return to same valuation.
Go figger LOL Hey, sometimes nothing happens
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AUD Rate Statement will be our next target, set
for 03:30 Tuesday . (Always think in GMT/UTC instead
of your local time). So here is AUD at this time, noting
that we always look at the Big Picture and then
progressively zoom in:
[update] in 15 minutes, AUD appears set to LIFT on Rate Statement News
[result] AUD/JPY +25 PIPs instantly… pretty much a textbook prediction
[10 minutes in] +45 PIPs AUD/JPY so an unqualified success LOL :)
In pricing terms, for the Currency Pair, it looks like this:
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NZD Employment News is coming Amid NZD Recovery
We have 6-7 hours before NZD News, so we begin by looking at
the bigger picture here using the Standard Chart.
More as we approach the News Event, which will not be
as much impact as a Rate Decision, but nevertheless
Employment is a strong indication of health.
[update] Looking at 12 hour Divergence, we note that
NZD has been elevated, so we may assume it will WEAKEN
on Employment, but we are still at least 5 hours from
the actual News Event.
[update 1 hour away] NZD holding elevated:
[outcome] We were just at rollover, and NZD held high, mainly
because the Employment result was actually good, whereas
the market had planned to drop. So it held, over the Rollover
period, and then eventually weakened just a bit… Not the
greatest trade, but worked out fine:
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USD ADP NON FARM EMPLOYMENT
The Market is looking for weakness in USD but is not seeing it.
The ADP Non-Farm Employment was very strong so the USD
remained in a strengthening trend.
BUT the market was clearly looking for any weakness as an
excuse to drop the USD But, it just hasn’t found it yet ! …
Above, you can see they were ready to drop USD but the News was
just too good. And, below, we can see that in the bigger picture
using our Standard View, that USD is making a double top so,
once again, we are looking for an excuse to drop USD but just
haven’t found one yet…
Understanding what’s being expected is as important as
trading for the big wins !! LOL
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USD ON NON FARM EMPLOYMENT
Our prediction would be some weakening in USD on NFP
based on 6 hours Divergence just 10 minutes from the event:
[results]
USD sagged very slightly, due to its elevation; in the face of Good NFP Jobs report.
(Also, we see CAD spiked upwards on its good news as well… but we didn’t have
a prediction for CAD)
NOTE: also this is a Friday so volume is lower.
[finally] Our directionality was correct, though the move was muted:
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