eur/usd short from 1.3820 taken out at 1.3670
profit 0.42%
Current profit for the week is 2.48%.
last eur/usd trade made a little over 2.5:1 - reward:risk
Good trade overall.
Hi eremarket
May I ask you a question please. I saw the videos and read through some of your posts. I see you refer on mulitiple occasions to the COT reports, and in a videos I have seen how the COT graphs looked like. Specifically the one which showed the commercial traders net position. Is that report freely available online? If yes, where can we follow it.
Check out timingcharts.com
look for where the commercials are extremely net short, and the large traders are extremely net long, or visa versa.
on this website, the commercials are indicated by a blue line on the “indicator” below the charrts…and the large traders (hedge funds, and the like) are indicated with the green line.
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So far guys, looks like about 6 losing trades, 9 winning trades. about 0.60% winners
profit almost 2.5% so far for the week.
Now i’m out for the evening…err morning now as the case currently is in california.
Jay
I am trying to not cloud my thinking by reading up on every strategy on babypips, but your thinking often corresponds to ICT method and I enjoy reading what you are thinking in regards to trades. Goodjob man and keep the dream alive haha
I had someone pm me on this statement and hoped that in the last 4 years I’ve been able to do better than how this looks…lol.
In case anyone else was wondering the same, I thought I’d clarify a little. As I replied back, this is just one of [U]many[/U] demo accounts I’ve been through…different demo accounts for different methods. I had traded live awhile back, but I wasn’t using a stop loss then, and that coupled with the psychological aspect I didn’t forsee caused me to lose half my deposit. So back to demo to find a way to incorporate a stop that didn’t wipe me out in either a thousand small strikes, or one big one…lol.
I have a full time job, family, and live where prime trading time is the Asian session…not a lot going for me. Forward testing takes time. Back testing helps but is difficult to do when utilizing multiple time frames. I could go back to school to get my accounting designation in 5 years part time. To me, what I’m doing here is basically equivalent. It may seem strange to say, but luckily my broker (MF Global) just went broke and I had to find a new one, which I have. This new broker allows me to get a micro account…which had been difficult to find because of the trading regulations where I live…and I believe that will help with the psychological factor to get back to live trading, and work up from there.
Everyone is different and I just didn’t want anyone to feel discouraged from how this appeared…and 4-5 years really isn’t that long 
Hey all…the short order at 1.3849 on my eur/usd trade triggered as well. Stop is 1.3899, target is 1.3700
risking 0.25%
Jay
Hi jay! For your trading approach, which element do you place the most emphasis on?
Pivot points? daily highs lows? or support resisntace?
thanks.
Ok, EUR/USD short from 1.3849 is closed at 1.3810, for a 0.195% profit.
Just don’t want to hold this position as we push into europe session (it’s in mah rules. i’ve been burned so many times holding a profitable trade from asia into europe, i have a rule against doing it now)
and, with it being NFP day…i’d rather trade extremely light, if i do anymore trading at all.
profit for the week: 2.675%
10 profitable trades,
6 unprofitable trades
62.5% success rate
This may be as good as it gets for the week. 2.675% profit is not rockstar…but it’s really not bad, considering the
risk amount per trade.
If each trade had risked even just 1%, this would have been a week that brought in well over 5% profit.
and at that type of return, you increase your initial balance by over 10 fold in 12 months. 10K to 100K in 1 year isn’t bad.
Food for thought…
Jay
Hi Jay
Nothing to trade so far. Probably not trade tonight. Have a good weekend. Thanks again for your insights, got lots of study to do this weekend.
Regards
Tony
Aright Folks…some of you have made comments and had questions, and I promise I"m not ignoring those who have…and will try to respond to all of them within the next 24 hours if I haven’t already.
That being said, i’ve decided to break down what I’m looking to take tonight. Basically 2 trades, in GBP/USD
DISCLAIMER: Don’t take these trades. you can (and probably will) lose all your money. Trading is risky, past performance is no indication of future results, you trade at your own risk, and know that every single possible trade that i write about is very likely to lose and cost you some of all of your money (and even more) regardless of whether you follow the setup as i describe or not. This is for educational purposes only.
Ok, with that said… here is how I think about a setup so maybe you can do it to:
- You will notice in this first picture, we have a “virgin daily supply zone” from between 1.6070 and 1.6165 on the gbp/usd
This is a level that hasn’t been retraced to since price brok down from it. That alone sets a 70%+ probability that somewhere in this zone price will have a significant reaction (say…turn and drop down at least 50 - 200 pips from some point in this zone, before penetrating more than a few pips of the high…say, to price 1.6180).
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My job is to figure out where in and around this area is the MOST LIKELY one or two place for price to turn.
- In picture 2, you can see the blue dashed line intersecting the daily supply zone is where there were previous signifiant daily lows that intersect that zone. Previous support levels often become resistance levels. Good stuff to be aware of to help pinpoint the turning price within this virgin (fresh) daily zone.
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- Now, picture 3, the 1 hour chart, really shows the secret ingredients I look for. First of all, the beginning of the daily zone is about 1.6070. That intersects an area where price stalled before dropping. This “stall” is obviously a buildup of quite a few orders over about an 8 hr period - and half of those trades went long…and are wrong. So, this much price buildup often gets a price reaction to the downside as those longs try to cover near breakeven - by covering their longs with a short order.
So, we know where short pressure will be.
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- Now, funny thing about #3 above…is that the previous daily high is right around 1.6060. Immediatly above this, we will have stop loss orders of those who are short…and orders waiting to go long on a “breakout trade” when price pushes above this level.
SO…lets think about this. essentially, we have a cluster of “long orders” sitting between 1.6060-1.6070…and then right about 1.6070-1.6100…we very likely have a larger cluster of “short orders”.
Also, the beginning of a fresh daily zone, which overwhelmingly we know a fresh daily zone produces some sort of price reversal the first time it’s retraced to.
FUrthermore, the sentiment going into this NFP seems to be “very cautiously mixed risk… with risk off still the preferred focus of interest”. In other words, based on an overall feel i get from browsing some of the news announcements, that flows into the europe based currencies is being down with mixed feelings, and very cautiously…and most are still prefering the safer plays into lower risk markets like USD, gold, and possibly JPY (BOJ shakes this up a bit of course)
And, we have a weekly pivot point around 1.6052…and that’s nice bonus.
Furthermore, 1.6056 is the 62% fib retracement lelvel from the current weekly high to the current weekly low. Another added bonus
SO: we have an area that can provide liquidity for larger traders to fill their short orders just above 1.6060, and then an area just above that for providing THEM a cushion of short orders that will likely provide a “wall of resistance” for price to move up much further. This is really really good for them to go short.
We also have some weekly pivot interest, and some fib levels. ALl of which stack the odds in our favor for a short here.
So, I have a short order at 1.6060, 50 pip stop, 80 pip target. risking 0.25%
And another at 1.6000 (WHOOPS!!! I MEAN’T 1.6100! SORRY!) (which is a round number, psychological level). 55 pip stop, 100 pip target, risking 0.35%
Why this other order at 1.6100 for a short? because that price is at a major psych level, intersects those two dashed blue lines (previous daily lows), and just a bit before we come into the deepest, most significant 1hr supply level in this fresh daily zone.
Hope this helps u guys understand this a bit better.
Jay
Hi Jay…thanks for the chart examples. I have 2 questions.
First, in video 3 you talk about the “weekly relative S&D curve” zone being the fib levels of the prior week’s high & low. This post mentions the current week’s…when do you switch from using last week to current week?
Second, in the same video you say you don’t trade between the 38-62% fib levels…seems the 1.6000 is in that zone…is this an exception?
Thanks 
Long gbp/usd at 1.6000
Stop 25 pips
target 45 pips
risking 0.25%
Now I’m confused…why long when you went on about why it’s good for going short? :33:
Sweet…the videos are supposed to give consideration to both a specific process to find the highest probability trades.
Many of my personal trades do not take into consideration all of these concepts at all times. I’d say 90% of my trades differ from that exact setup. Though the ones that follow it do have an incredibly high success rate.
The most important of the concepts i explain in the videos is fresh daily levels. That trumps everything else.
The rest of it? just designed to give emphasis on where exactly in that level price will turn…and when it comes to the “weekly relative sup/dem curve”… if a trade falls within this setup…more power to it.
But the fresh daily sup/dem zones again…trump everything. I’ll post some examples of those that would have triggered over the past few days this week when i get a chance.
Jay
Hmmm… i think your latest question pip really helps me decide to start another thread…just on my live trades.
So, my thinking here is, below 1.600 there will be some stops that will provide liquidity for larger institutions to fill their orders on the long side…which is what they will need to do (go long that is) in order to push price into the LARGER, more IMPORTANT liquidity areas around 1.6060-1.6100.
This trade does not follow the typical “rules”…and it’s no doubt a higher risk trade. The better trade IMO is a short from where i outlined above…but, I feel price is likely to get back up there, and I feel this is the area that larger insitutions can find liquidity to push up into that zone.
last but not least, the greece referendum fears are dying down now, and with that being the case…a move to the upside is even a little more likely…at least in the short term
But again, this is NOT recommending anyone trade like this. I’m just a wild and crazy kinda guy like that. and this is definately a higher risk trade
Jay
I think that is a very good idea…
Ok, then it’s decided then. That’s what I’ll do. Starting next week, this thread will be exclusively based on levels taken off the fresh daily levels.
I will then start another thread for my trades that i take based on other reasons.
Jay
not liking the PA and volume around 1.600… reduced my positon by half at BE.
now just risking 0.125%
Jay your post earlier is simply fantastic, I like the smart and logical approach to your trading. This is a really interesting take on the market, reacting to large orders rather than reacting to price is a brilliant way to think, I’m falling in love with this style LOL.
I will definatley be picking this up as the second tool in my trading box once my scalping has become consistent. Keep posting, I need more reading material 