oh i like webinars, but i always get so confused with the dates on this thing. is that for sunday or monday?
It would be Sunday night 7pm pacific time which is 10pm eastern time I believe…for other zones it may be early Monday morning.
I was hoping for the mini one he mentioned for right now at 10pm pacific time but doens’t look like it’s happening, and I don’t know if the link to his webinar site is the same as the one posted before, or if it changes.
Thanks sweet I live in tokyo time zone so yeah probably not going to make it. I hope someone takes notes. Anyway I am sure it isn’t to be missed.
Sorry guys… I was hoping to be able to do something tonight, but a scheduling conflict just wasn’t going to allow for it. Tomorrow’s webinar is at 7 pm california time (P.S.T.), which is 10 PM New York Time (E.S.T.)
Hey jay! Would there be a recorded session for it?
I tried to draw your “system” for lack of a better word on GBP/USD and I have:
-
Daily Supply: 1.165/1.070
-
Daily Demand: 1.581/1.568
Also I suppose there is another hourly demand level on 1.590.
So, letting my imagine flow, looking at the hourly chart, I notice that since price has come out of the daily demand level, it has consistently bumped of demand a 100 pips higher at 1.590, with quite some speed, although the last time the price lingered for a little longer around this level, I suppose this happened because of break-out traders watching that particular level and because it had bumped off already so often.
Now it seems the hourly demand level has risen another 50 pips to 1.595, which is also a retracement of the swing high of nov. 2 to 3, to either .50% fib or .61% fib, depending which high you take. However these trades also occur in your
no-trade zone.
Then on the supply side, price has stayed for quite some time within the daily supply levels, before breaking down, which I gather might be large institutions hedging there longs? Which they are probably still holding as to this date.
Then I see a new rally into the supply level, and a hourly peak, which might be a hunt for s/l and break out traders, meaning that large institutions meant to go short? Then price lingers on the bottom of the supply level, is this an indications that smaller sized players do not trust there shorts anymore and broke-even?
After that price drops significantly to hourly demand level at 1.590, twice in shorter time-frame, does this indicate that institutions are selling off there shorts? The last drop takes a little longer, perhaps because of break-out traders, which might be an ideal situations for institutions to fill there longs once more, price then takes of in a hurry.
Then a new demand level is established at 1.595, created by 2 large drops filled up quickly, is this the institutions selling of there shorts and filling longs?
I suppose what it boils down too, have the institutions sold of enough of there short to break trough the supply level profitably?
But on a daily level, something that counters my whole idea, is the fact that price stalled for perhaps 2 weeks in the daily demand level meaning that a lot of institutions took a short in that period, what will the do with those? And perhaps what I think to see on the hourly is in fact them just selling of there longs with profit to dive down trough the demand level?
Glad you liked the videos Desmond, and thanks for your contributions!
Jay
Well rmieck, these actually didn’t do so well… IMO in large part because the first demand levels reached after a trend reversal are the least reliable.
But, if you had taken every single fresh daily level…you would have had about 55% winners this week, in spite of the DX COT reading registering as extremely oversold, and the BOJ intervention.
Had you simple taken into consideration the COT DX reading, and only taken any USD pairs long USD, and not short USD, you’d have about 65% winners.
And…btw… all winners went at least 2:1 RR from what I had… so, even with 55% winners, your doing quite well.
Jay
Desmond… in spite of the crazy market conditions, i was able to pull out about a 3% profit this week never risking more than 0.75% per trade, and had over 60% profitable trades.
I’ll be the first to admit, some of the daily levels didn’t hold as well as I would have liked of course, but no matter…they still showed a net profit for the week, and my trading didn’t suffer much (though it was a slightly lower week than i usually have, it was stil pretty solid_
I’m not totally disregarding your statements… but just know that no matter what happens in the market place, if there is more supply than demand at a price range, the market will sell off. and visa versa.
Furthermore… I rarely “swing trade” these levels…as in, hold for more than 24 hours. most of my trades are done in less than a few hours off these levels…sometimes, just a few minutes.
Find a level good enough to swing trade off of, but rather than taking a longer term trade…pick the most likley turning point… put a 20-35 pip stop on it. put a 40-70 pip target.
Essentially, your using a daily level to catch a move that might last for an hour or two.
Not sure if i’d call it a “scalp”…but swing trade i think is streching it.
Not to mention there is nothing stopping you from taking a daily level…breaking it down into 1 or 2 high probabiliity 1 hr levels within that daily…and then watching for confirmation on a 5 min (say a pinbar…something like this).
Put a stop a little below (or above) the 5 min pinbar…and trade it as a “scalp”
Food for thought…
Jay
P.S. Loved your jade post! didn’t know that about the big sur area…or about the coldness of jade. Interesting… and probably something you can relate to when trying to find out how to trade profitably. Some things just take experience…and trading is definately one of them.
Thanks for the kind words shogeki. It does take some real effort (and the pay ain’t so hot!)…so the thanks are appreciated.
Hey Fartist… daily high/lows really are support and resistance 
My #1 criteria is a fresh daily supply or demand zone. This trumps all genreally speaking
My #2 criteria is determing where in that daily level price is most likely to turn.
My #3 criteria is longer term supply/demand curve (did we just leave a daily supply zone after a 700 pip upmove? i’m looking to short in this case)
those are the big 3. They tend to trump all for me. Now, for my shorter term intraday trade setups…#4 and #5 are also important.
#4 criteria is probably taking an educated guess on where the larger institutions will likely find liquidity
#5 criteria is probably sentiment (hard to make good profitable use with #4 if you can’t guess #5 with some degree of accuracy)
everything else is helpful…but not a major priority. Even sentiment isn’t that big of a deal for me when taking a trade off of a fresh daily level.
However, there are times when i wouldn’t take a trade based off of the weekly relative sup/dem curve alone… so, it’s situational.
Jay
Thanks for the update tony. feel free to drop a line or post a chart. chart posting is great 
Jay
On point 1… the weekly relative sup/dem curve is important. however, I on occassion will also consider just plain old fib levels from significant swing highs and lows. Just cuz it isn’t from the high/low of last week doesn’t mean it cant provide some insight into strong levels for turning points.
on point 2: it’s a mistake. I meant 1.6100, not 1.6000
Glad u liked it shroom! As I said…if you can define where you want to be looking before you are actually looking there…you can retain a great deal more control on your trading. and this equals more profits.
also, don’t throw price out the window completely! there’s nothing wrong with planning a possible trade around an area of large supply/demand imbalance, but using price to confirm this
Jay
Thanks Lefty. Feel free to post up any chart with a question. I’ll do my best to answer it.
Jay
AK…i’m really glad to hear that our chat helped you. And i’m glad to see you are digging into some of your own “triggers” that open you up to making mistakes, such as looking at shorter time frames.
This type of self work actually is what seperates very sucessful traders from those who always struggle.
And besides, trading really is a marathon, not a sprint. Slowly getting rich is generally preferred to quickly getting broke
Jay
RC24…if it’s a fresh daily level…i’ll go back 5 years without blinking. They work that well in my experience.
Jay
Michael, thanks for letting me know. I would have PM’d you to find out, but the rescheduling was kind of last minute. Nevertheless, I appreciate the heads up!
Jay
Thank you pip for clarifying times for everyone. I will be posting a link up for it when we start, and I believe it will be a different link than before, but no matter what, I"ll put the link up about 1 hr before the webinar starts…and I will also be posting it on the first page of this thread.
Just FYI everyone: there will be TWO log ins for the webinar. One will be for anymeeting, and there you will be able to hear the presentation.
The other will be for Mikogo. I have found that screen sharing on anymeeting can cause some problems… inferior software i suppose. So, there will be a 9 digit log in for mikogo (go to mikogo.com, download there free little app, and then you can access the visual part of the webinar).
You’ll just click on the link I post for anymeeting.com
For Mikogo, download the free app (only a few megabytes), and then type in the 9 digit code I post up.
THis will get you into both the video, and the audio.
Ask any questions you may have about the webinar asap… thanks guys.
Jay
I won’t be recording this gusy. If you can make it great…otherwise, you’ll have to catch a future one.
Jay