Hey guys… I will be rescheduling tonites webinar for Sunday night July 31st at 7:00 P.M. PST - (10 pm EST). This seems like a time that will work better for thos who I have heard from who would like to see it.
I will be cancelling the live scalping session completely, as it interfers with the distinct concentration I need to do it best. I will, on occassion, do a 1 on 1 screen sharing session with someone who has a genuine interest in watching this, but I will not schedule a regular webinar to do so.
I WILL continue to have live webinars for my trade analysis, and you will see how and where I place my orders, as where as see some trades trigger and probably resolve as well… so, there STILL will be the opportunity to see a pro day trader actually place orders, take trades, and analyze the market… it just won’t be at such a fast pace as my U.S. session scalping. - This will likely suit most of you better anyway.
Also, the market profile analysis webinar will be rescheduled as well, as I realized that the 3:00 am time would be saturday! I will announce this later, likely over this weekend, for sometime next week.
Refer to this forum for the latest update of my schedule of webinars… I will try to make a calendar of events for this coming week over the weekend, and possibly start a blog or something here so it is easier to schedule for all who are interested.
Dale, I hear ya…and I had to read the post through a couple times to make sure I have it clear, and I think I do now. I agree with you… I do NOT trade multiple markets on short term TF’s. In fact…when I’m “actively trading” between the hours of U.S. open and London Close… whether the market is Euro/usd, USD/JPY futures, the S&P, or crude oil, I generally choose 1…MAYBE 2 markets, that I think is best to trade for that particular session, and I watch it like a hawk. I can’t do any more than that for my most active market trading.
However, I do a full analysis on about 11 markets during the asian session, and I place longer term orders (trades that may take several hours or even several days to trigger, and go for 20 -60 tick targets, instead of the 10 - 20 tick targets I take when scalping.)
I have 1 - 10 of these trigger per day…and for the most part, could be sleeping while they do their thing. Yesterday, I had 1 trigger in gold, two in euro/usd futures, one in the pound futures, two in usd/cad futures, one in AUD/USD futures, and one on spot euro/usd. thats 7 trades in 5 markets, but other than adjust a target on 2 of them, I didn’t do anything after they were “set, and forgotten about”.
These generally take care of themselves, while for the 2 - 3 hrs per day that I’m actively scalping the market that I’ve determined will give the most opportunity for actively managed short term trades (usually lasting minutes).
Ideally, while i’m scalping away at EUR/USD or Oil futures, my longer term “preanalyzed, set and forget” orders are doing their own thing…waiting to trigger, or working their way to a predetermined exit point (be it the pre set stop or the pre set target).
So while I may take trades in 4 - 5 markets in any given day… only 1 generally gets my attention to actively trade per day… the rest are all longer term setups that require almost no management, save for possibly adjusting the target once a limit order triggers.
Hope this explains things a bit better.
Jay
P.S. I guess i’m just not the genius savant I used to be… scalping up to 10 markets simultaniously? show me that person and i’ll show you an alien
Hi jay, nice webinar today earlier! You’ve shown good things, will be waiting for the new schedule (I don’t know if Google Calendar works on an open to all bases, but you can try).
Until then make a post when you’ll be scalping tomorrow morning, looking forward to see it. Otherwise until sunday evening!
Hi Jay (I’m sorry I was a bit rude yesterday i.e. by not addressing you by name although I actually didn’t know what it was until I took the time to look this morning).
OK: now ‘I GET ya’!!! LOL!!!
Sorry: I just had cursory read of your thread when it started and it APPEARED to me that you were using a sort of ‘shotgun approach’ (which I myself used to use YEARS ago with disastrous results) i.e. trading anything and everything where a signal was generated. It worked ONCE for me and made a RELATIVE (to capital) small fortune but it never worked again.
My apologies for my misinformation posted and my misunderstanding.
As I said: if nothing else you ‘talk my language’ (FUTURES although NOT FOREX ‘anything’ for me unless there’s that ‘special’ daily trade / reversal after a L-O-N-G trend the likes of GPB/NZD that I’m watching at present. That type of thing). My instruments of choice are mainly the index futures (and there’s enough of them as WELL to get you into trouble if you’re trading too many at a time because they’re HIGHLY correlated as you will well know). And of course some commodity futures al hough I don’t find them as ‘exciting’ if that makes sense.
Anyway: it would appear that you’re impressing a lot of people and going to a lot of trouble for everyone and as long as you can help them be profitable and not ‘lose their shirt’ then ‘good on ya’. Maybe I’ll have ‘squiz’ at some of your stuff sometime (I’m a bit of a ‘scardeycat’ i.e. it’s taken me a LONG time and a LOT of money to get where I’m ‘at’ now and to stop jumping around from system to system so I tend to stay away from anything new JUST in case it becomes tempting)!!! LOL!!!
Yep: you have no idea how it ‘grinds me’ to be saying this but Oanda, as far as I know, is the only broker where you CAN INDEED manage risk with a $100 account because of the smaller lot sizes allowed (I don’t know this for a FACT but I believe you can trade ‘teensy weensy’ lots at Oanda). I just found my little ‘exercise’ yesterday rather interesting.
When people contact me I tell them not to waste their time with anything under $1 000 and preferably $2 000 and THAT is if they’re going to trade spot FOREX (we won’t even mention equity futures and commodities here). I mean I just thought: here’s these brokers with their ‘no deposit bonuses’ (I found one the other day offering $25 and there have been a few along away with $100 ‘no deposit bonuses’). How DECENT of them. But I’d never bothered to ‘do the math’ until yesterday. You simply cannot manage risk trading even 1 of the smallest lot size available. So all I’m saying is: they’re pretty darn sure that you’re gong to lose that ‘no deposit bonus’ and then some REAL money is going to ‘come their way’ is all. Put another way: find me a broker that gives me a $1 000 ‘no deposit bonus’ and ‘I’m there’ my man!!! LOL!!! I just think (after my little ‘experiment’ of yesterday) that it’s an unfair advertising practise. Alright: ONE qualification is that this is with MY (Wilder’s) trading systems so sometimes (most time) the stops are quite far away but I would have thought that on the 1-hour timeframes and shorter you’d be fine with them (although you’d get whipsawed every two minutes but that’s besides the point although the end result will be the same).
Anyway: just an observation and a bit of an ‘eye opener’ for me.
Jay I would love to have a 1 on 1 session with you. Especially looking at the smaller time frames and scalping. I hope that I can get a chance to talk with you about your system and seeing these smaller time frames in action.
hi just a quick question. can u really make an income with scalping? and what do we mean by scalping, what time frame. thanks. please sign me up for the next one
Halba…yes, I do believe one can make an income with scalping, as this is generally how I derive about 40% - 60% of my income, and even if I ONLY scalped, that 40% - 60% would be enough for me to make a decent full time income.
That being said… I’m generally not taking 50+ trades a day in a single market. I’m generally not even taking 10+ trades a day in a single market. When I scalp, it is usually the S&P futures, the EUR/USD futures, or Crude Oil Futures. I may have 2 - 6 trades per day in each market. Usually, about 2 - 3 in S&P and EUR/USD, and maybe 3 - 6 in crude oil (my personal favorite market). I’m taking them for quick profits (10 - 30 pips…called ticks in the futures markets), and i have small stop losses on them as well (10 - 25 tick stop losses).
My time frame is usually a tick chart (which is a measure of transactions…not time…), as well as a 1 or 2 min chart, a 5 min chart, and an hourly chart to get an idea of where we are on a larger time frame.
I don’t really like to say “i trade this time frame, or that time frame.” I trade price zones… regardless of time frame. On a 5 minute chart, there are more of these price “zones” that get reached in a day than on a 60 min or 240 min chart…but a zone is a zone is a zone. If price hits 1.4000 on the Eur/USD, and that happens to be the beginning of a zone in which I will take a short trade…does it matter if you are looking at a 1 min chart or a weekly chart? No…because 1.4000 is going to be the price that all charts will show…be it a 5 min, 30 min, or monthly chart…
I hope this gives you a better idea. time frame isn’t that relevent for my trading… HOWEVER… if a price zone is substantial on a 1 minute time frame, and that level is relevent and substantial on a 1 hour time frame… I am MUCH more likely to take a trade here than if it only is substantial on a 1 minute time frame, but not even noticeable on a 1 hour time frame
Ok guys…will be doing some live trading analysis, and possibly live trading if anything triggers as I do my market analysis. I will be doing this analysis on both forex futures and forex spot… so feel free to stop by the webinar. It’s starting in about 45 minutes, and will go until I’m done with analysis…about 1 hour.
Screen sharing will be conducted via Mikogo.com - free service.
I will post the session number on the first page of this thread when I am starting to present
You talk about Supply and Demand levels, but I notice alot of people mix that up with Support and Resistance levels. Are you going off monthly,weekly,daily s/r levels on the lower frames?
If you aren’t referring to SR, how do you calculate supply and demand levels for institutions using small time frames?
Another awesome session with Jay, putting trades before the euro market opens, identifying supply and demand zones in the FX market. Appreciate Jay for taking this effort, answering questions.
What’s more it’s free! Go see, you’ll get a different perspective with institution S/D zone. Highly recommended.
Solid strategy, most balls I’ve seen all day did 3 live trades all yielded profit. Market predictions were well analyzed and is very good doing 1 on 1 analysis
Fascinated by this but feel I’m a bit too new to benefit fully, quite yet. Price zone? Supply and demand levels? These are new terms to me. I’d love to see a chart or two posted and maybe a few words explaining… though beggars can’t be choosers of course! Maybe I can pop in sometime and just quietly listen.
Far away, on another forum I’m an ‘expert’ at that business there, and have explained how things work to anyone who would listen… but it’s so often a struggle, rather than rewarding. I’d explain a strategy clearly only to get arguments, or see it ignored or misapplied (and then I’d get blamed).
All that said… even if I’m not personally soaking any of this up, “thank you.” It’s the one thing I would have loved to have heard, for all my troubles trying to help people elsewhere. Human nature is so often very good, people really do try to help one another… I think Locke had it right, not Hobbes.
Thanks Double…read some of the post there at technical templaces continued…and i will agree…it is almost exactly what I’m showing folks. Thanks for posting it up.
Empty… there is a lot of crossover between support and resistance and supply and demand levels. Classical technical analysis does not cover, IMO, the subtle but relevent distinction between both of these. For example:
Classical technical analysis:
more times price has been rejected from a level, the stronger Support/Resistance it is:
I find this is not the case, and sup/dem paradigm explains why.
The more time price has consolidated around a level, the stronger it is:
Supply Demand analysis has the opposite being true…the LESS time price spends at a level, the stronger it is.
Two horizontal points must be connected for support or resistance to take effect.
Supply Demand Analysis can find very high probability turning points from a single point where price moved away from.
As far as calculating levels on smaller time frames… I do use monthly, weekly, daily levels…but also can find levels that of often relevent on a 1 hr or even 5 min TF. Hit me up and i’ll open a screen and I can explain better.
These are just a few examples… I can give more if you sit in on a webinar.
Purple… Correct me if i’m wrong here, and I should have clarified this. For the method of analysis that I use, I only draw horizontal lines… I don’t use any diagonal lines.
The reason I ONLY draw horizontal lines is that institutional levels are determined via limit order primarily for the purposes of hedging in the currency markets in order to exchange XYZ currency for ABC currency to ensure they have enough at a particular exchange rage to conduct their business internationally without losing their profit margin ( I.E. think swiss banks who conduct business in the U.S. in dollars… loans given in dollars to U.S. corporations must be converted back to swiss franc’s…and since the dollar has been in freefall against the franc… swiss banks would be very active over the last few year as they exchange dollars for francs
to guarantee they don’t get bamboozled when they convert the dollars they receive in future loan payments, and it only converts to a fraction of francs of what they originally had expected for the loan payment…etc)
If a market is trending up, it generally will not come back to a horizonal line more than once or twice… Then it generally leaves that “support level”, continuing on it’s uptrend.
THerefore, I only use horizontal lines to determine highly probable zones of institutional activity.
The reason these zones act as “support” or “demand” in the first place is because the size of the order being filled on the institutional side is an order of magnitude bigger than the market can currently absorb at a given time, at a given price. Therefore, when price turns down from these “institutional supply/demand” zones it does so because there are still more orders waiting to be filled.
However, once the last order is filled, and there is no more “sell orders (supply)” or “buy orders” (demand) at that particular horizonal zone…price will indeed break through it.
Diagonal trend lines, on the other hand, are effective primarily because of factors affecting market sentiment combined with human natures inclination toward a “herd mentality”, as well as self-fufilling prophecy, classical support/resistance, and a variety of other factors… all of which I find much more difficult to quanitify, or to know exactly when a likely turning point is coming… (with the exception of support and resistance that is…that is fairly simple to quantify, measure, and “predict”
However, all theory on reasons why aside… Diagonal trend lines do indeed strengthen the more times they are touched… but those aren’t the “support and resistance” lines that I use at all.
Furthermore, I find that supply/demand analysis puts my trades in line with the trend as I buy pullbacks when they hit a Sup/Dem level… but it also tells me exactly when a trend is likely to end…and from what price point… and generally, it provides me a few good ideas of how far the NEW trend that is about to start will run to… not exactly of course… but I can usually pick a few likely targets, one of which will be correct more often than not.
I think we actually both agree here… I just wasn’t being as specific as I needed to be for you to understand precisely what type of “level” or “trend line” I was referring to… btw…feel free to correct me if I misunderstand you or if I’m still missing something…
