I did a picture to illustrate what I’m kind of thinking, this is my basic approach, a bit more to it than just that, but funny enough as I was doing this graphic I saw what you mean!
Hah… you did what I should have done the whole time, a chart. To see which one of us was correct, I pulled up a chart and realized that in a trend…say downtrend for example… if price touches a level like the ones you’ve drawn above more than 3 times… it is now more likely to break than hold… and that’s a strong sign that the downtrend is very possibly ending.
Now, take one of your levels as you’ve drawn them above. assuming sometime in the future price would get back to those levels… but then…price would be in an uptrend when it gets back to those levels 
One more thing I want to point out… I am guessing this chart is 15 min EUR/USD… but whatever it is… take the very bottom red candle… the bearish candle around the 1.3830ish area. Draw a horizontal line at the top of the wick of just that candle, and draw a horizontal line at the bottom of the wick of just that candle. This is what I would call a demand zone.
Now, I have no idea if that is a tradeable level… It would require me to measure other factors that I can’t do based on a single chart pic… but I would bet that it is likely that price gives at least a slight reaction upwards once it enters the demand zone that I specified, and possibly a move upward that is large enough to see that a profit could be made by setting an order at the top line of the demand zone, and a stop just a bit below the bottom line of the demand zone.
If you take the same chart and try drawing those lines as a demand level…I’d be very curious to see what price did next time it returned to that level.
If it does NOT bounce again… try this. Draw the same level…and extend those two lines to the left of your chart (if they don’t already that is). Go back in time… and see if that “demand zone” was a turning point for price in the past. I would guess that in the past it was extremely close to a point where the market turned previously, or extremly close to a very strong price move had occurred the last time price was in that “demand zone”
In fact…lemme see if i can find your same example and post what i’m talking about in a picture
Ok…found it. this is the exact same price zone, drawn as I mentioned above, on the 15 min EUR/USD chart. This is how price reacted last time it was at that particular price zone in the past.
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After dropping about 120 pips…price turned, and rose a significant 1000 pips before ever returning to that price zone.
Also not surprisingly, this zone as you see pictured here was the weekly low of that week in mid march… previous to that, that exact same zone was the MONTHLY high of february, which was the high of the year for 2011…until that high was broken in march of course.
I have no idea if you already consider these types of factors when you place trades, but for me, knowing these factors are what helps me not only trade with the trend when it is moving, but also helps me to determine where a trend will very likely end at. Even if one doesn’t place orders at these types of levels… knowing where a trend is likely to end I find can be extremely useful to avoid that final trade at the end… the trade that generally doesn’t work.
There are other ways to determine the end of a trend… but I find supply/demand concepts to be the best for me at determining this, because I believe they are the most easily quantified, and more precise, as opposed to diagonal trendline breaks, higher highs/lower lows…etc.
Jay
eremarket . is that futures chart ? cuz i cant find that kind of pattern on my fiber july lows ?!
Sorry guys…it IS a futures chart… I use onada and think or swim for spot forex charting and trading, and neither one of them allow me to zoom in on a 15 min time frame that far back in time. However, for those who may feel inclined to start complaining that my pictures is not relevent because you trade spot and i’m showing a different market altogether, I encourage you to draw a horizontal line on your EUR/USD chart at 1.3870, and another at 1.3836. extend that “zone” as far back as it can go to the left of your chart…and you will see the same thing i’m talking about.
Thanks for pointing that out though lehm… I want it clear for everyone.
Whoops Lehm! totally misread your post…you mentioned fiber…not cable. But… here is what I responded when I thought u mentioned cable:
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And Lehm… if you open up a 4 hour chart of Cable… (cash, not futures), I would have likely drawn the level from 1.5800 to 1.5740ish… and you can see that’s where price turned from a down trend to up trend. As for future likely turning points? I’d say 1.6525 - 1.6575, and also: 1.6630 - 1.6750.
Neither of these I would consider A+ however…but if I had to put a number on it…i’d say an order at the beginning of these zones to short would be about 60% - 65% likely to turn price back at least 60-70 pips for the lower of the two zones, and at least 150 for the higher of the two zones:
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I left it because I thought some folks may find it useful to kinda get a view of what i’m talking about on their own price charts, and maybe get an idea of future price action on the cable.
I was looking for your schedule. you should post updates on the first post so it’s easy to find.
Yep, I’d also love to see more scheduled events. I really want to try to join as many of them as possible!
Not to diss the TT threads but what I like better about this one is he makes it easier to understand and even though he talks fast it’s in English without the strange dialect of the TT bunch. 
I’m not just knocking you, you are obviously a great trader and you really do know your stuff, but the point I’d like to make is that I really don’t want to be thinking about supply and demand zones and buying and selling levels, I just want to look at the chart, see the resistance levels on downtrends and the support levels on uptrends and scalp them 'till my heart’s content and my balance, I really don’t want to be overthinking my trading, I want to reserve my thinking for the more interesting things in life.
After all it’s just one vast market of an uncomprehendable amount of money, and I really don’t think that anyone has any real idea of who’s doing what when and where, and if they do, I really don’t give a hoot, I just wait for the chart to look like what I like it to look like and trade.
But keep up the good work, I can see there are so many forum users here that are mega interested in what you do, and by no means I’m saying you are wrong or anything, I really can’t fault your knowledge.
Well said Purple… you and I both are following what I believe is one of the cardinal rules of sucessful trading: find a method or system that works FOR YOU… and stick with that.
to get a little theoretical…some would say because I trade like this is why I have had success. I think the better answer is a bit different… because of who I am…my own psychology… i can ONLY trade like this to acheive real, lasting success. Trading a different approach, or with a different understanding of the market…and I may fail. God knows I tried a hundered different ways to do it…and it wasn’t until I found THIS approach… this type of analysis, these time frames…that I really made an income.
so which is better? no such thing. this is better for me. yours is better for you. we have a lot in common…many of your levels will be my levels…but better? I wouldt trust myself to trust the trend like you do…and for you…you may struggle with believing price would actually turn at something i would bet (literally) hundereds of dollars on it turning, happily.
so knowledge aside… philisophically speaking… I know a great deal about markets (I think so…and i’m humble about it too!), but of the 1000 truths I know… I chose the 6 or 7 that fit for me…and those are the ones I use to trade.
Again… my own trading ability is, IMO more a credit to me finding what I[I] needed to find [/I]to trust what i was doing would result in a profit. NOT that what I do is any better or any worse than an other trader who trades for a living. And the same can be said about you, and everyone else who consistently makes more than they lose.
Knowledge of self + acceptance of self + knowledge of some market realities = everything one needs to trade profitably.
But, lets both agree… MacD is just B.S. that thing works for no one 
Jay
Great stuff, and as you say for the ones who think that MACD and all that rubbish is any good, they really do need to wake up and smell the coffee.
Having said that though I did use an oscillator at one point, but it was only for the purpose of using it for exactly what it they were designed for, i.e. the deviation element.
What I keep banging on too to people is to wait for the market to come to you, and I’m pretty sure you’ll agree with this, I mean Ok, the chart I posted was ‘cherry picked’ and it can sound just like another cliche, but some days I look at the chart and say no, not worth bothering, for instance occasionally the EURUSD will just range in about 30 PIPS all day long and you look at the chart and it’s just so spikey, those days it’s best to just leave well alone, or fair enough I think you said earlier in the thread that you do 2 - 50 trades a day, so with your more aggressive approach that would be a day that you’d have only a couple of trades, and then on the days where your charts are looking more like the one I posted earlier that’s the day you go for it, I call them Pac-Man days!!!
If I recall correctly both Tess and Jocelyn are Americans…
yes but they sure speak in a confusing way. As I said to someone recently even Roget would need a thesaurus for that thread! Comparing that thread to this one is sort of like ‘War and Peace’ written in Shakespearian english vs. the Cliff Notes version.
It seems a little strange don’t you think that all the other regulars on there, including one whose native tongue is so obviously not even English, doesn’t have a problem with their communication or presentation skills?
I think that says more about you than it does about them.
If you’re not up to the task of processing the info or the delivery style then why don’t you simply find something that you [B]can[/B] understand & quit whining & b*tching.
Jeeez.
I’m sorry if you can’t handle the fact that this version is clearer and less obfuscated by linguistic gymnastics but that’s just the way it is. Jeez indeed. I don’t want to steer things away from the topic of this thread so I’ll ignore this twisted side branch going forward.
Alright I’m gonna have to check this controversial thread out a bit more carefully. That being said… Echo, I don’t hear talon whining or “complaining”. He simply stated that he prefers one presentation style over another, and that he finds the other more verbose and a bit difficult to follow. He states his preference, and why it is so.
and regardless of how this could be taken or mistaken, he is not attacking them personally, or attempting to discredit the validity of their opinions, style or thoughts… however, your treading a bit close to that line yourself.
So, for you, and [I]everyone[/I] else here, I’d appreciate if you disagree with someone who is personally responding to this thread to keep it as cordial as possible. Guys, unless someone is simply out of line, in which case I’ll take care of that, or you can contact the mods and report their behavior yourself… I will allow comments of disagreement (of course!) or even strong personal preference to be stated… but I will go out of my way to make sure no one reacts unreasonably to any poster…at least on this thread.
Not just for the sake of trying to keep warm fuzzys in everyones heart… but for the sake of continuing this thread as a place to share only trading insights and trading assistance, not a place to share reactive behavoir, spiteful attacks, or anything else that will distract from the purpose of this.
Jay
did i miss something? I thought the webinar was tonight @ 10 pm est?
It has been rescheduled for one hour prior to London open (11pm PST/2am EST)
Hey guys, could someone make a quick review of the last webinar? It was 3h00 am here and I couldn’t make =//////
Thanksss!