What do you think about thr GU pair.
[QUOTE=“sharebazar;545154”]What do you think about thr GU pair.[/QUOTE]
I would short it if a set up shows itself.
I was short from yesrerday on GU pair, hopefully will hit TP.
1HR
Hit my trailing stop, got out with 38 pips on GU pair
Hi Nikitafx, just stumbled upon ur thread. does this price action technique applied to sideways market or only during uptrend and downtrend market?
[QUOTE=“sharebazar;545269”]I was short from yesrerday on GU pair, hopefully will hit TP.
1HR
<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
Nice trade sharebazar.
I was traveling back to my hometown and I couldnt trade.
Im working on something. I will ask what u guys think of it after i have looked at it from a few different points.
One of the biggest problem or draw back trading this system is that day trading inherently increases the frequency of our trading, and because of that, trading not only becomes too high pressured, but also when we starting out, we seem to be giving away what we made at the beginning of the week before the end of the week.
I went up looking at weekly bias because of this same reason.
I find that if i take more than two trades a week, i tend to make more mistakes and tend to give away more of my profit than I should be.
But all this doesnt help when we starting out. Weekly SL tends to be high, and reading bias is much more difficult as sometimes we have to wait for atleast three days before weekly bias takes effect.
I was reading the Trading with Rayner site and I found something that might help with the need to trade daily.
Let me test it first.
[QUOTE=“Aretes;545401”]Hi Nikitafx, just stumbled upon ur thread. does this price action technique applied to sideways market or only during uptrend and downtrend market?[/QUOTE]
Aretes, very good question.
Just like the notion of overbought or oversold / over valued or undervalued, the question of either its sideways / ranging or trending can only be answered if we are to compare it with something.
Overbought, oversold etc is defined by historic price action.
Ranging and trending can only be answered when we relate it to a certain TF.
Look at USdCHf.
Anything and including DTF can be called as trending. But the moment we switch to Weekly, we see its been ranging in a 800 pip or so channel.
Take EuroUsd last week. I sold once and I bought once based on H1 TF for about 60 pips because the daily and weekly was at a range. If we had traded based on daily, we would have been hit. But the same range, if observed from H1 TF, we could see it trend back and forth.
The reason why i assumed day is going to be ranging, hence i traded SR levels on H1 is because of how the weekly candle looked like, and since it was the end of the month, beginning of the month, I suspected it was going to just bounce back and forth there.
But this is a problem. We should not assume or guess our trades. I have said unless we see something clearly, we should not enter a trade. But trust me its easier said than done.
The most difficult part of trading as far as I am concerned is learning how to make sense of the movements in relation to a higher or lower TF.
Im looking at away to compensate for this, but let me look at it in depth before bringing it to this thread.
Thanks Nikita, you mentioned very good point about day trading, I will wait for your additional input.
I really need to work on how to hold the trade until it hit my TP and reduce my trading to 2 -3 trade a week.
Hi Nikita. thank you for the replies. i have gone through a few pages and noticed that you learnt from luminous. are you using this market bias theory? his theory how to spot a downtrend and uptrend? HHs, LHs, LHs, LLs… and thumbs up to fellow countryman for this thread.
I’m so awaiting.
To see what you can come up with.
I’ve been struggling to put all of the trends in perspective. Just want to know the best way to view the trend movement on a 1hr time frame.
Thanks.
Mike
[QUOTE=“Aretes;545587”]Hi Nikita. thank you for the replies. i have gone through a few pages and noticed that you learnt from luminous. are you using this market bias theory? his theory how to spot a downtrend and uptrend? HHs, LHs, LHs, LLs… and thumbs up to fellow countryman for this thread.[/QUOTE]
Yes, Luminous.
He was my online mentor when I first started.
He thought me what traders actually look for on the charts.
I was an absolute newbie and it was just not going right.
He had many systems which he traded and each system utilized a different point and perspective of the chart.
It was the basics that he pointed out to me that brought me to a point where I had started looking at the charts from my own perspective and we parted ways.
One of the earliest method he traded involved him announcing weekly bias for a few popular pairs.
Trust me I didnt know how he came up with the weekly bias, as it had not registered to me at that point that at the end of the day, anything below H4, all the way to 10second charts will end up following what the weekly daily or even monthly candle ends up doing.
That there was bias.
Didnt understand how he could read whats going to happen next week at that time.
The net gain or loss of a pair will reflect on higher time frame.
Period.
Such a simple and obvious fact eluded me back than.
I spent a good four years chasing price on H4, H1, even on min5.
U chase price and its not going to end up right.
Another example.
I understood what Support and Resistance meant from day one of trading.
Its such a simple concept.
A bottom bounce is a support, a top bounce is a resistance.
How hard could it get?
It took me nearly four years of consistently trading and loosing, before I got an idea of how to trade a support and resistance lines.
The lines were the same, the concept was the same, but it only dawned to me four years later, after looking at the same thing again and again for that four years before I saw something. Four years of looking at the same thing but not seeing it.
I than realized price will retest a broken support or resistance line before a continuation.
Then it hit me, this is what they mean by support broken and retested becomes resistance.
Something that happens often.
We have all read it at one point in time.
It took me four years to see how that produced trade opportunities.
Today, its one of the primary way I trade, on anything from H1 and above.
Four years.
Buy low, sell high.
Another simple truthful advice.
Again it relates to support and resistance lines.
Price will bounce again, repeating history.
Trading is actually quite simple, we complicate it.
Finally, I need to say this.
You cannot copy a system 100% in a few weeks and expect absolutely mind boggling change to your trading results.
If I learned something from Luminous, than this is it.
We need to see what others see.
That is the tough part.
Especially when we want to execute a trade.
And we wont be able to see what others see over night.
Its a gradual learning process that the trader has to discover for himself.
People often ask, how do I find out if a particular system works.
Again, there is no short cut to it.
It only comes through experience.
Ive traded min1 SMA cross overs,
Bollinger bands,
RSI,
ADX
fibs,
triple EMA crossovers,
pivot points,
ichimoku clouds,
heikenashi candles
Zigzag indicators and many more.
U name it, I have probably done it.
Can I say all the above does not work?
It didnt work for me cause I was missing something.
Im sure there are others who are doing fine with a few of the things I mentioned above.
Anyway, you go through it one by one and you will get to a point where you will understand some underlaying market logic.
You will than have a sense what works and what doesnt.
From my personal experience, Once you understand to an extent how price waves move in different time frames, you will than realize trading the above mentioned indicators and systems produces much more better results.
The underlying thing is price action.
Focus on that and you cannot go wrong in the long run.
Im sorry There are no easy shortcuts, and experience is the best teacher.
The stories of newbies who went for a seminar or was mentored by another trader and they being profitable in the first six months are true.
But they are rare exceptions, not the norm.
The rest of us, unfortunately, have to the nine yards.
Sooo true i am one that has gone the nine yards, but i must say it is worth it if you stick with it. Very truthful piece you have written here Nikitafx thank you on my behave and others.
[QUOTE=“Mike Wolski;545633”]I’m so awaiting.
To see what you can come up with.
I’ve been struggling to put all of the trends in perspective. Just want to know the best way to view the trend movement on a 1hr time frame.
Thanks.
Mike[/QUOTE]
Mike, what I have learned, experienced and come to know this far is not enough for me.
I have stopped killing accounts, stopped topping it up, but I have not yet been able to hit the balance I have in mind.
This is keeping in mind that all flukes, lucky trades and sheer guesses or probabilities are discounted out sincerely from the final result.
So while I try my level best to be faithful to my own rules, I still keep searching for more knowledge from the charts.
What else can I do differently to eliminate weaknesses from how I trade.
I sincerely believe trading should not be hard. It shouldnt be stressful either.
What Im looking into at the moment is the risk to reward ratio and my SL.
While its very important to maintain a risk to reward ratio of more than 1:2 the least, I am finding that not maximizing our profitable trade by letting it run is a big drawback for me.
Often, I find that my TPs are too conservative, not wanting to miss the chance to bank in whats on the table.
I find this as a major weakness.
It not only makes learning the method harder, but it also contributes to higher trading frequencies.
The way out of it is again I believe in the higher TFs. Im trying to see what needs to be tweaked to fix this.
Among the hundreds of methods to trade the markets, swing trading often comes out as the method that produces the most number of successful traders.
Im at a point where swing trading is the next logical step. I just have to try to fit it in to my current trading methods and see if the results are what I hope them to be.
With that being said, in regards to your question, do not trade H1 TF exclusively.
Especially if u r someone who is not planning to trade by constantly watching the market.
H1 is good for entries, especially when Daily is constantly moving in one direction. H1 will do a pullback to yesterdays resistance to test it, and bounce back up in a bull run and vice versa on a bear run.
To trade H1 exclusively is not advisable.
The whiplash and false entries are big.
The chances of long term profits in doing so is quite weak in my opinion.
Hi Nikitafx, could you please correct my explanation of what went wrong during my trade of the eur/usd h1 on the picture uploaded.
-
I bought the eur/usd h1 tf at the indicated buy arrow. set my stop loss and take profit using fibo.
-
didnt realise market bias was at downtrend, with a LH forming at 1.36313 right after the HH.
-
second thing is that, when i bought the eur/usd, i didnt realise it broke the HL(swing low) indicating a downtrend.
So my mistake was, I didn’t determine the market bias first.
Was my post analysis correct ka? Sorry I incorporated a bit of luminous sl and tp fibo strategy after watching it on youtube. -_-
[QUOTE=“Aretes;545741”]<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>
Hi Nikitafx, could you please correct my explanation of what went wrong during my trade of the eur/usd h1 on the picture uploaded.
-
I bought the eur/usd h1 tf at the indicated buy arrow. set my stop loss and take profit using fibo.
-
didnt realise market bias was at downtrend, with a LH forming at 1.36313 right after the HH.
-
second thing is that, when i bought the eur/usd, i didnt realise it broke the HL(swing low) indicating a downtrend.
So my mistake was, I didn’t determine the market bias first.
Was my post analysis correct ka? Sorry I incorporated a bit of luminous sl and tp fibo strategy after watching it on youtube. -_-[/QUOTE]
One sentence answer would be its friday.
Always stay out of fridays n mondays.
Hi Nikitafx,
I am back after a very long time. Seems you and your thread are thriving. Just going through the USDCHF weekly chart. It shows a pinbar at the resistance. Can I buy it here? If so. please give some idea about SL and profit target.
Thanks.
Pranab
[QUOTE=“pranabbiz;545951”]Hi Nikitafx, I am back after a very long time. Seems you and your thread are thriving. Just going through the USDCHF weekly chart. It shows a pinbar at the resistance. Can I buy it here? If so. please give some idea about SL and profit target. Thanks. Pranab[/QUOTE]
I like ur optimism my friend.
I can assure u that my thread seems to be doing much better than my account!
I wanted to mention UChf yesterday but Ive already done so last week.
WTF
The top grey line is my support last week.
The bottom grey line is the previous LL for SL purposes. SL is 102 pips in between those two lines.
H4 TF
shows very clean SR areas and the grey line is the same support line from WTF.
H1 Tf
Again very clean SR areas.
Now, the most logical entry would be inside 0.904 and 0.902
But this is us predicting and assuming.
Many things can happen on Monday opening.
Price might open with a gap upwards, which in this case will most probably make our entry point higher up, enlarging the SL, reducing the RRR.
Price might go all the way south again, passing last weeks wick before forming another hammer or pullback. This would be a really good thing for our SL and RRR.
Or price could just whiplash in that area back and forth until the mid month directional momentum kicks in.
The possibilities are endless.
My thoughts are as valid as yours.
We have to wait for the weekly opening price before anything.
For now, it looks like bias change is the only confirmation that can be made.
For my 2 cents. Honestly if you are losing on a trade or know you have the wrong Bias, the smartest thing to do is GET OUT and look to regain profit at a later date. There will always be another trade.
Think about this. if you refuse to accept losses, then you “Need to be right” trading success is not about Being right. fancy tricks or locks. only cost you over time. always cut Losses.
[QUOTE=“paulaelli;546003”] For my 2 cents. Honestly if you are losing on a trade or know you have the wrong Bias, the smartest thing to do is GET OUT and look to regain profit at a later date. There will always be another trade. Think about this. if you refuse to accept losses, then you “Need to be right” trading success is not about Being right. fancy tricks or locks. only cost you over time. always cut Losses.[/QUOTE]
Ur correct.
If u know its an obvious mistake than by all means get out.
Ever experienced the phenomenon of a deer being caught in the headlights and ended up loosing way way more than the SL? Happened twice to me in the beginning.
On the other hand, a chart that is moving can tell us many different things at the same time. Its best to stick to the valid SL when all entry rules were met. More often than not, the trade will swing back into the right direction, when a moment ago it looked like a definite loss.
Interfering in a active trade that has a valid stop loss might not only cause us some pips in profit, it will teach us a bad psychological habit which can be difficult to get rid of later.
Finally, a fellow trader told me that consistency in our actions while trading is important so that we can see honestly if our chosen method is working or not. That includes SL, RRR obeyed, waiting for price to hit TP or SL each and every trade. Altering this fixed behaviors alters the end results very dramatically.
So like everything in trading, there is more than one school of thought.
Only the individual can make up their mind on which to accept, practice and follow.
I always say what ever works for you, as long as you get the results that you feel conferable with. This business as all business ,you never stop learning that is the beauty of it.