Salimvp thank you for your avatar every time i see your post, that picture you have there makes me smile and helps my day go better. FUNNY
Two spinning tops on the weekly on AU chart.
I would favor downside upon lower time frame confirmation.
Support around .8820 before another move higherā¦
Any views?
I just read an interview with Al Brooks, a very successful trader and a real price action maven. He lost money for the first 10 years he traded. He learned the hard way that the only way to make money in trading is to stop listening to other peoplesā advice and experiment until you find your own way. āYou canāt learn to trade the same way you buy a TV set.ā Brooks also recommends not focusing so much on the risk-reward ratio but the focus should be on probability. His insights have made him a billionaireā¦(To read more, see Figuring Out the World of Forex - One Post at a Time | Forex Figures)
Any thoughts?
Thanks to you Energized i also read it, and it makes allot of sense .
Hi Aman did you managed to get the short entry on AU pair,I missed the entry.
I was waiting to go short on GU and NU pair but missed the entry also.
Shaarebazar-
No, I did monitor the lower time frames to find an entry but I couldnāt find a signalā¦ Even in hindsight I canāt see what the entry trigger should have been.
Do you see a trigger for going short on lower time frames after the two spinning tops formed on weekly?
I will now wait to go long AU around .8820 and also I am keeping an eye out to Short the Euro Aussie. My area would be 1.5440 - 1.5500. Lets see if the price can get thereā¦
If you look at 1HR TF around .9020 price drop and retrace back where I draw the line. Previous support now resistance.
1HR TF
Been quiet in hereā¦
Just closed half of the position on NZD/CHF pair with 52 pips, and moved SL to 30 +
1HR
Itās Friday and most of the traders are in week-nd mode as i am. I am done and i am ready to close shop and go play. : ))
Closed all my position on NZD/CHF pair with 69 pips.
WTF
15 Min
[QUOTE=āEnergized;606873ā]I just read an interview with Al Brooks, a very successful trader and a real price action maven. He lost money for the first 10 years he traded. He learned the hard way that the only way to make money in trading is to stop listening to other peoplesā advice and experiment until you find your own way. āYou canāt learn to trade the same way you buy a TV set.ā Brooks also recommends not focusing so much on the risk-reward ratio but the focus should be on probability. His insights have made him a billionaireā¦(To read more, see Figuring Out the World of Forex - One Post at a Time | Forex Figures) Any thoughts?[/QUOTE]
I tend to agree with this 100%.
Just hope u r sensible enough to toss or lucky enough to find out what works.
[QUOTE=āNikitafx;608895ā] I tend to agree with this 100%. Just hope u r sensible enough to toss or lucky enough to find out what works.[/QUOTE]
That article is definitely a good read for newer traders bc it provides insight into FX trading from someone who has been immersed in the trenches for 10 years. His summations just further solidify my current approach (price action and levels, zero indicators, zero outside influence). Being able to read PA definitely will give you the advantage over others who rely on indicators.
Just interesting how he claims traders need to find their own way, but then talks about his educational services. Sorry this is a bit off topic but I just wanted to point that out. Thanks for sharing though.
Figure since I have not posted a trade in a long long time. I will take this time to post a possible trade I will be looking at in the next couple days.
Here we have the AUD/JPY daily that I will be looking to go long maybe
We are sitting on a decent support level and made a pin bar on Thursday. Fridays candle did take out the low of the pin bar by a pip or 2 but still looks valid to me.
The one hour chart shows a pin bar followed by a spinning top (or whatever that candle formation is called)
Even the daily on AU daily has a pin bar that formed on Thursday and Fridayās candle closed almost perfectly on the 50% retracement of the pinbars wick (my most favorite set up ever) .
However I will be on the sidelines today for a couple reasons
- Sundays can be tricky
- The AU is sitting on resistance also the 0.9000 seems to be holding for possible downside action
- The AJ seems to be having a very hard time breaking the 200 sma. Very uniform rejections and thats a scary site for a long entry
So I will be sitting till I get a better picture in a day or 2 just figured I would post it since I am bored (only so much schoolwork one can do before I start to lose sanity).
hello nikita ive been reading this thread since friday and ive found alot interesting and needfull. you are indeed a great teacher and PA master. hope to learn more from you and other PA masters,
also what do you guys think of GU?
i think a pull back will call for a buy to last weeks highā¦ need reactions on this
I got to be honest the GU looks like you missed a pullback on the daily and for hour. Unless you find a dip on a lower time frame (which is very likely with the GU) you are a little late. You would have to see if price forms a new high and pulls back into support but even then I dont like it. The daily IMO is way overdue for a significant retracement and if price does pull back as you want it to. Would it not have just made a lower high? That would signal the current trend is starting to lose steam. However looking for shorts in that market is only something I would do and I do not recommend it for anyone else.
Bobmaninc-
I opened this thread today to post this
"When do we know the trend has changed?"
and you seem to have touched the topic in your post aboveā¦
this is why I like how Nikita looks at it in terms of most recent biasā¦ even though I like it better when the daily bias is in tune with daily and weekly trendā¦
Anyway, I find it hard to find when a trend is changingā¦
Just for example, I have been trying to Sell the EURO and the GBP for a few weeks now but these currrecies are just not willing to come downā¦ They are at a pretty significant resistance levels buying here is hardā¦ and selling here while the trend is up seems hard tooā¦
Haha look all I said was waiting for a pull back and getting a pull back would suggest trend might be losing steam. That does not mean it is. Could just be a small retracement coming. It does look awe full top heavy and I am about the best person I know at spotting tops (bottoms not so much).
To know when a trend has changed would depend on what you consider a trend in the first place. To me to confirm a trend is actually changing in this case it would have to break a significant support level and retest it with confirmation to go lower. Then for at least the short term the trend has changed, but could still be just a larger retracement. For me though a larger retracement (especially on the larger timeframes) are a change in trend till proven otherwise. Short term trends are still trend regardless if you call them a trend or a retracement. There is still trading opportunities, even if short lived.
As far is this situation it might be suggesting the trend is running out of steam but that is yet to be seen. All I was refering to is if Fxsly waited for a pull back from where price currently is then it will make a lower high and that does not scream long to me. I also do not see anything significant to suggest shorting at this time. If you want my honest opinion I would wait and see what the next few days/week brings to the table for clear direction on this pair. If I was to consider a long I would wait till price broke the previous high and retested it with confirmation on lower timeframes. And for me to consider a short I would wait for price to make the lower high then a lower low and retest the previous lower high. Again using the daily as a guide as overall market direction as pretty much stated in this thread (even though me and nikita do trade differently we are not to far apart either). Then drop to lower timeframes for trade entry.
Bob
I think AJ is going to fall furtherā¦
I will be looking for a retrace to 91 level to sellā¦
On a second noteā¦ AJ opened with a gap lower right at support of 0.90
Now I am unclear as to what I will do with this pairā¦ Long term trend is up. Price is now at supportā¦
Does that mean long here at 0.90 pending H1 or H4 PA signalā¦ weāll see
Also I am sure Nikita will agree just because yesterday was a sell does not mean you have to sell today. I you want sure, but you can also wait till yesterdayās candle is in line with the overall trend and follow suit. For example in an up trend like this one wait till the daily confirms the uptrend is going to continue. In an up trend there will be a lot more repeating bull candles than bear candles. In such you have a way higher probability in looking for longs on the smaller timeframes (or whatever timeframe you like). The reverse is true for a down trend.
At the end of it all the reason I posted what I posted was because Fxsly asked to take a looke at the GU for a possible long on a pullback, but never stated pullback to where and on what time frame. So this leaves it open to how I would trade it (which is probably what he was looking for). For me I will use the daily and look for where price might pull back to. So lets take a look at what I see.
The horizontal line shows the nearest support level for price to pull back to. The trendline (not that it could be called that at this point but bare with me) shows how if price was to do that it would make a lower low. After marking up the chart I can also see how price might get stuck in that wedge and range for a minute. In my opinion thats a small wedge to be trying to trade (especially this concept of trading). If it were me I would wait till price broke out of that wedge and decided which way it wants to go by either making a higher high and retesting support. Or breaking low and making a lower low then retesting resistance.
Either way price decides to go I would wait for the retest of either support or resistance. Then after the daily candle confirms price is going in the direction of the trend (or new trend in my view if it breaks to the bottom) drop to lower time frames and see if there is an entry. If so happy pipping, if not wait till either the next day till price make a higher high or lower low. at that time I would wait for the retest of S/R. Then wait for the daily to confirm the retest is likely to hold (by going in the direction of the trend) and repeat process of look for entry on lower timeframes.