Once I have 100 k in my trading account ,honestly I will invite you and Nikita if you have no objection . But I think it will take some times.
The chart you have posted here is on H4 TF.
The thing about BPC is that it happens on all TFs, Including Minute 1.
Price moves in waves, and these waves are on all TFs. So the higher our TF, the more waves there would be. And inside these waves, there would be H1 waves, and inside that min30 waves and so on and so forth.
So when we just look at H4 TF, the white circles might not be BPC patterns on that TF, but if you mark those areas and zoom into say min 15, than in min 15, you can see it as a BPC pattern, breaking, retracing and than continuing as how the S&R areas have formed previously on Min15 TF.
I hope you get what Im trying to say.
It really pays of if you can see the wave inside a wave, Major S&R areas and than smaller TF S&R inside these areas etc etc. This helps when it comes to you taking entries on smaller TFs.
This is the underlying concept I use to take entries on Min5 nowadays. Yesterday AU buy I had a SL of 3.5 pips. Add 3 or so pips on spread and my total SL was less than 7 pips. It did hit my TP of 70 pips. I dont get perfect entries like this on every trade, but even on the occasion my SL is hit 4 or 5 times in a row, I barely loose 30 pips. So my confidence to up the ante is there.
So in summary, the short answer to your question is, yes and no. The whites are not BPC on H4, but they are BPC on smaller TFs. The yellow are clear BPC on H4, but they are not BPC in say D TF.
Looking forward to my ticket Sharebazar!
You should probably figure out how much the tickets cost and than get the market to pay for it when you have 100 grands in trading capital. That would be the way to go.
Anyway if you do hit your first milestone, this is probably a place you should visit
Pulau Redang Photos - Featured Images of Pulau Redang, Terengganu - TripAdvisor
I have to 100% agree with Nikita. A BPC pattern is one of the most common pattern there is IMO. They happen on everytime frame. So stalk your trade on a higher TF. If you find a BPC pattern on the higher timefrmes even better. Then to lower you SL. Look for the same pattern on a lower time frame in the same direction. I like to have candle confirmation as well. With that the pips keep rolling in. The BPC patten can happen with s/r levels or trend lines. Both are valid. Me personally with trend line BPC patterns I like to see them pullback to retest the trend line at the 61.8-79% retracement of the breakouts swing. Reason is this gives me a good swing to figure out my TP levels with. This is not a must as all price has to do is pullback to retest the trendline and bounce to be valid it is just a personal thing I have for TP levels. I also find it validates my trendline since trendlines are subjective (or at least can be IMO).
Nikita since I love the water (reason I live in florida) that place is on my bucket list for sure.
Thanks Nikita and Bob, I’ll try to study how price waves form and how they affect the price action.
There seems to be a some correlation haywire today, with AU and NU showing a bearish bar yesterday while GU and EU showed a bullish bar. However, GU and EU have hit their resistance levels and prices are stalling (at least for the past 10 hours). AU and NU showed that price was stalling as well.
I would see the bias today as bearish. Is this the correct way to go about doing it?
GU H1
You are asking a tough question now!
The red line above is where I would put in a sale order. That is provided correlation or other reasons pointing a sell than I might go in. And that too with a much lower risk than what I am suppose to take at my current compounding.
Is a tough question a good or a bad question? 
AU and NU are really ping point around the same area and I can’t get anything out from it. It does seem to me that price is respecting the support level on AU though.
Its a tough question because its a good question and I cant answer with definite answer. The chart is not very clear to me as it was yesterday.
Monthly, Weekly and Daily is all in the same spot. At the moment, that spot is a resistance area because price is under it.
Will it break upwards, or bounce downwards is what I cannot make my mind on.
If we look at the Monthly candlestick, we would probably buy. Weekly on the other hand, is a buy according to the communist, but we are essentially buying right at the top, hoping that it would pierce upwards and shoot on. Its a gamble at best and the worst part is, even if our reading was right, buying at this level will ensure that you would have a mother of all drawdowns before you go into profit. That is assuming you have the nerves of steel and hold on to the trade.
So when you cannot see whats happening, its best to just sit back, relax and watch the show.
GU H4
As how we talked about earlier, the red line was my marker for a sell, provided I could see something I could use to justify the sell when higher TF ended up bullish yesterday.
So I did go into a sell. I didnt read too much into the other stuff because I got a good entry. Where is the BPC to justify the trade?
GU Min 5
That there is a BPC on Min 5. It was not a BPC on H4, but the smaller wave on Min 5 shows clearly the pullback and the candle formation signalling a southward move.
Exactly after touching the higher TF S&R line. Trading candle stick patterns is very very powerful. But you cannot simply take every candle pattern that forms. You must learn how to read price action. Learn to see the waves.
By right, my SL should have been 3.5 pips, Spread and all included. But I was late by a minute or two and my SL was 6 pips.
The moment price crossed 10+ pips, my SL was moved to BE + 1.
Usually I wait for it to cross 20 + pips but today is an exception because I could not make up my mind on the higher TF.
So either it gives me my 40 pips or it hits BE. Its now a risk free, free trade.
If it hits my BE +1, I am still up by 30 plus plus dollars, which is about 90 odd ringgit for me.
Learn how to read waves, Everything else is making it too complicated.
I am getting these sort of silly SL entries more and more these days.
I hope to refine it to the point that anything above 15 pips should be considered SL that is not worth the risk.
This is as simple as it gets.
Very nice trade Nikita.
I was watching the GU when you showed me the chart. Unfortunatly, I did not enter as I was only looking at 1H as my smallest TF. (Im taking things slowly currently and trying to avoid heading down to very small TFs).
When I noticed this trade, it was around 30pips away from SL, and I figured that it was not ideal for me.
At the same time, I noticed a great AU short, but missed it due to indecisiveness.
Just a quick question to confirm though. Would it be safe to conclude now that bias is heading in the downwards direction for today? I don’t see any positive bias in the market currently.
Nothing is confirmed until the candle closes. We can only confirm that bias has changed when todays D TF candle closes. For all you know, buyers push the price back up or news is announced and it rushes back up, or this could be the BPC for a higher TF like Weekly.
So nothing is confirmed until than.
Even a min 5 candle can only be a pullback candle when that five minutes is over and the candle closes. Candles that form what looks like a pullback might end up as something else together by the time its over.
A possible reason for AUD to drop?
(I did not sell the pair though)
From 4CAST:
"Further signs of China slowing? BHP Billiton’s Ian Ashby said China iron ore growth demand flattening, and demand growth to fall. Iron ore demand growth falling into single digit. Sees current iron ore floor price at $120 per tonne. China annual steel production rising to 1.1billion tonnes fby 2025 from around 690m tonnes now.
On FX, AUD/USD dropped sharply to 1.0593 lows from 1.0620-25 on BHP comments - signalling less demand for Australia’s iron ore exports/ commodities and on concerns over signs of further slowing in China. AUD/USD eye break of 1.0580/50 stoploss, on BHP commments, as [B]China is Australia’s largest trading partner[/B]. Offers at 1.0630-50. AUD/JPY lower at 88.40-45, stops below 88.20/88.00."
- What does all the above mean? They mean alot of things to many people. But for traders like us who are leveraged to 1:200 or even 1:400, it means nothing.
Why? Because we are not fundamental traders. We need a 100 pip profit on a 30 pip SL.
- We are technical traders. We do not pay attention to what the economic outlook or other news is about.
The last three months, which ever news article you read regarding Euro was talking about Euro falling inregards to USD. The sensational trash put it as imminent, the posher magz and papers said possible but in a way that meant short Euro now.
Well, we are still waiting for that mother of all shorts. Has Euro zones mess cleared up? Nope. Matter of fact, we all know Greece is going to be the permanent homeless person on welfare. But why isnt everyone in the planet selling Euro?
So what does news mean?
-
There is a school of thought that fanatically says that if we are to read the technical charts properly, than we can predict what is the news going to be because news is not real. What is happening on the tick chart second to second is the real data. I dont know if its 100% true, but you can pretty much see a fall coming.
-
Finally, what use is news if we can only know what happened and why after the effects?? We can only make money if we know before hand. That, my friend is something average joe like you and me are never going to get. Unless you are the wife of the Swiss Banks Chairman or something.
So
-
First, dont confuse fundamentals and technical trading… They are different. We here do technical trading with a high leverage. You sell because news is telling you that the world is going to end when the chart is showing a clear buy and watch what happens to your account.
-
We watch out for economic news on the first week and the last week of the month not because we do not want to be caught in a sudden change of direction in the market. The markets will come back to its natural level and continue where its going regardless what the news is. If news is in the direction of bias, than it will shoot in that direction quicker and strongly. If its against what the prevailing sentiments are, than it will come back to that level and continue in the original direction. We stay out because we dont want to be caught out in a situation where the trade is against you by 100 or more pips when you could have taken the trade after the news effect and made a killing.
If a newbie needs to go through all the economic news and know hows of how this affects the other and so on and so forth, than you will never have private traders making a living out of this. Period.
You do not need to know any of the above. You just need to know when to buy or sell based on the charts and if the risk you are taking is worth it.
Oh another interesting thing.
Its widely known among trading community that when you see Main Stream Medias reporting about how good a certain commodity or currency or even value of real estate is going up and they recommend that this is the best time to buy, be rest assured that this is the best place to sell.
Yes. When you see the noise on MSM increasing, regardless if its gold, or corn or housing prices in a geographical location, what it means is they are advertising for takers so that the real sharks who have bought real low can unload their massive holdings.
For every buyer, there needs to be a seller. When the entire world is invited for the so called never ending good times, know for a fact that the real market makers, movers and shakers have had their fill and they are now looking for buyers so they can take profit.
The market does not print money. It is essentially a closed system. For you to make money, someone somewhere has to loose it. The entire world cannot be buying and watching the price increase all the time. You cannot buy when there is no one to sell.
So when you are invited to buy by nearly everyone you know, than you know that there are going to be a massive selling.
So that is news for you.
You can google this and correlate with great price crashes of a chosen commodity. You can be assured that weeks or months prior to the crash there were a spike in news telling the world how good it is and how higher its all going to go to.
Its the same thing with trading. Newbies fail because they sell after the obvious sell move. We buy, after we see a buy move completed.
We have the mentality of buying at retail prices, where else the market players are buying wholesale prices.
So news means nothing to us.
Economic news announcement is best avoided due to volatility etc etc. But other than that it means nothing to a technical chart trader.
Not sure what all this means but there were some strong technicals backing such a drop last night and I was able to get in on it once again.
On the 4 hour we can see price is runnning into resistance. Note that hammer immediately followed by an inverted hammer. This tells me the bulls made one last push to get price to break resistance and were rejected. Along with some other technical stuff like fib levels and pivots we also have what appears to be a stop run on the 1.0600 institutional level meaning big money is going to need those stops to move there positions to go short. This is also confirmed by the above hammer. Again I looked to get in at the 50% retracement of the inverted hammers wick to hold down my SL. I was a little late on entry since I was cooking dinner. Still was able to get in with a 30 pip stop. As of this morning price was down to the 1.0500 level so I tightened up the stop and came to work. I hope to see the 1.0400 level but only time will tell. If I get stopped now I will have banked 100+ pips so no complaints. I know Friday was a buy however I do not use Friday’s bias when trading on Monday to much noise with profit taking going on going into the weekend. Honestly I dont trade Mondays for that reason I dont like to trade with no Bias. But when theres a signal theres a signal and last night was about as good as it gets for a Monday.Hopefully I get my 1.0400 that would make this the best trade of 2012 for me. 4 weeks of trading 5 trades 1 loss 4 winners and a whole lot of pips. Surprised I have had no BE trades thus far. But goes to show what having a trade journal can do. I took 3 months off this year (well part of last year for the holidays) to review all my trades and how to improve them. One big issue is SL placement to early to tell if thigs are working for the better 5 trades is not enough info. But good enough to sideline me for the rest of the week unless something is jumping out of the charts.
Ugh I missed another downward move on the EU. Set up my entry just a little bit too high and missed it all.
Oh yes bob, can I know how to you guys do your trade journals? I have totally no idea about what to include when i tried to do one
I use microsoft onenote for my journal. It allow me to add tabs for each month of trading and within each tab I can add section for each week within that month. It allows me take copy and paste charts on there. I found it to be very helpful and organized. I try to keep everything in it just like a journal not just what pertains to trading. You would be surprised as to what goes on outside of your trading can have a great impact on your trading. It has helped me alot entering into this year I think (guess we will see in December)
I meant what do you guys include in the trade journals? I have no idea what I should write inside my journal
I am old school and trust me and only me. Therefore I move it manually. This does leave me wide open times like now if the aussie is dropping like a rock I have no idea and can not move my stop to lock in those profits in case price reverses before I get home. It is what it is though and kind of why I trade the aussie mainly is I can have some flexibility in my schedule and still be able to catch some nice moves. The cable and fiber are alot more unforgiving when it comes to my schedule.