Trading has been so-so. I think there are some great ideas in my thinking, but they are not quite strung together well enough to produce the results I want. I know not many people will want to read or follow someone who isn't strongly profitable, but I make the assumption that if there are others who were like me when I started, they would have wanted to read this sort of thing. The important take aways are not the results, the strategy, the trades, or systems, but rather the ideas. The ideas themselves can produce all of the above in a fashion that cannot be ignored.
I'll make this one short(ish) and just highlight some scenarios that I've looked at in the past couple weeks and hopefully be able to shine some light as to how I view the market.
I always trade into the gap. Point 1 just didn't work out for me. In this sort of scenario, it doesn't really make a difference where I enter, because my risk is always the same, a percentage. This of course affects the profit because in order to get, say, a 1:1 RR, I would need to hold on to it for more if I had entered further down. But in this case it is not important because there was never a chance to really get much profit. It came down then up, never getting close to closing the gap.
Point 2:I can't remember if I took a trade in the area marked 2, but again, this is kind of irrelevant. The point is that I have knowledge that there are forces that say that price should not have bottomed out as shallow as the point that it did on the right side of the marked "w" (in other words, it should have looked more textbook 1-2-3 down trend than "w") and I had reasonable suspicion that it could have bottomed out where it did (giving an entry opportunity about 25 pips from the bottom). The key is to both be aware that both scenarios exist, and to find ways to reconcile these differences. Don't tunnel vision and blindly pick the double bottom because it "works" and don't have "analysis paralysis", but rather find ways to make a decision before it is time to do so.