This is good stuff thank you. And there are two strategic points made which people often overlook.
Firstly the use of nuclear weapons can be tactical as opposed to strategic. So they could readily be used as just a very very big bomb to sink a fleet on the high seas or neutralise an armoured corps on the European plains. This does not lead automatically to a Dr. Strangelove-style attritional war targeting cities.
Secondly, the polarisation of Europe in 1914 into two major military alliances, the Central Powers and the Triple Entente, virtually guaranteed that any European war would be a continent-wide major war, almost inevitably a world war. Probably the exact opposite of what the governments involved believed and told their populaces.
You are correct that the Nordic area is in many ways a totally different scenario to Ukraine. They already have close relationships with NATO in terms of information and military exercises, etc and they are EU members, and one is even a Euro nation.
However, we are no longer living in the same global security model that we assumed prior to the Ukraine war and, in the same way, those earlier assumptions based on that model, are also questionable.
The number one factor is that one cannot trust any comment that comes out from the Kremlin. The huge build-up of troops on both the Russian and Belarus borders were claimed to be just military exercises. Then the movement into Ukraine was claimed to be a peace-keeping operation in the newly-recognised Ukraine eastern provinces to save the Russian-oriented populations from the Ukraine government. Then they claimed to be only attacking military targets, but the voluminous photos, videos and personal accounts from refugees shows that is not true. Then they attack a nuclear power station. Then they agree a ceasefire to allow refugees out from two towns, only to resume shelling only hours after the ceasefire has started, and the entire operation had to be cancelled.
It is impossible to say, but it does seem that Russia is meeting a much heavier defence than they anticipated and in all likelihood the advance has taken much longer than originally planned.
But there is still a rather puzzling issue that also would reflect on the prospects of war in the Nordic region. And that is the lack of air warfare in the early stages. The Ukraine war was very much a âboots on the groundâ operation at first and only now, when logistic and strategic difficulties are being encountered, is the air warfare being stepped up.
However, in the Nordic environment, there could perhaps be a very different approach. These are much smaller nations and their defence depends very much on access to their own airspace. If Russia were to attack with the opposite tactics of obliterating airfields and communications then it could be a very different outcome.
But, as your rightly say, the response from Europe and NATO would also be very different and that is hopefully the key that would prevent war escalating in this direction.
However, Mr Putin does not seem to be overly concerned about NATOâs strength and if he thought that these two Nordic countries would now join NATO then, together with Norway, which is already a NATO country, this would present a real and present danger to Russiaâs arctic region.
So he may well see this as a ânow or neverâ situation and attempt to neutralise this risk before these two countries have time to come under the NATO shield. But that would indeed be a huge gamble.
As far as I can see, although public opinion is understandably turning towards NATO in these two countries, their governments seem to be leaning more towards building a stronger neutral zone that is capable of defending itself with aid from a close NATO partnership rather than relying on NATO membership. In my own opinion, I think that is both entirely credible and extremely sensible both in the near term and in the longer term.
But , as always, we hope these issues all remain hypotheticalâŠ
Thank you for that. I was a bit concerned about writing so much on your thread, but I think this is a huge issue for all people and it has certainly captured my attention full-time!
Interesting point and very valid. I get the feeling we are living on a brink right now and in such situations one small mistake or misunderstanding could well be the match to the touchpaper.
I read this morning that both Mastercard and Visa have suspended operations in Russia. I am not sure what that actually means, but if it means that any accounts with a Russian address no longer function then that is one almighty freeze across the entire population, forcing them to turn to cash and limiting their activities even at a time when the banks are nearly all suspended from the SWIFT payment service and cash withdrawals are limited due to the collapse of the roubleâs value.
I guess Russia has its own credit card companies but I donât know anything about that or the extent of Visa and Mastercard in the country, but I would guess it is very widespread and a lot of people who only listen to the Russian official voice on media will be astonished when their cards donât work. But, naturally, there could be a backlash from this in that it can appear as clear evidence of a Western attack on RussiaâŠ
It is not too clear how much impact the withdrawal of Visa, Mastercard and AmEx will ultimately have.
Russia has its own Mir network and some Russian banks have said they will be starting to issue cards based on the Chinese UnionPay card operator system.
It would seem that we may be entering an energy war stage now with Russia starting to threaten shutting off gas supplies to Europe if there is a boycott of oil exports from Russia.
Very interesting translation of analysis written by a n active FSB analyst, highlighting the current situation of the Russian invasion. Specifically, FSB analysts knew nothing of an invasion, weâre told to analyze outcome of a meteor strike and effects on the Russia economy, society and response.
Canât be certain of itâs authenticity, but if true, it definitely explains some things.
I feel like this is the only option that gets sanctions removed in the quickest possible way. If you read the analysis I posted above, Russiaâs economy doesnât appear strong enough to support a long-term invasion.
The longer the sanctions run, the higher the likelihood that the powers that be surrounding Putin - oligarchs, economic advisors and military officials - feel the pressure build to get Russia out of the war, both personally and from its own citizens.
And as explained above, Ukraine wonât submit. I just donât see that happening. Maybe the Ukrainian govt, in an attempt to save lives, surrenders, but the citizens of Ukraine will not stand for it.
Interesting move on Polandâs part. I commend them. Hopefully they find another way to get Ukraine the planes. Maybe just land them in Ukraine and âforget where they parked them.â
Missed this in the articles:
Under one scenario, Poland would deliver the fighter jets to the U.S. base in Germany, where they would be repainted and flown to a non-NATO, non-EU country. Ukrainian pilots would then come to fly them to Ukraine.
Thanks for that @forexforexforex. As you say, one cannot ever confirm authenticity, but there are some very interesting, and perhaps revealing, issues in it. Conflict on this scale is never as easy as one might think. Logistics and communications alone are a nightmare.
I also think it raises some plausible issues that would arise in the event of a complete occupation and installation of a Russian government or a puppet regime. Ukraine is a big country and the resources needed to control and run such a regime, if the population is hostile, would be huge.
Correct, war is expensive, I heard it is costing something like 20 billion dollars a day, By continuing this war, Russia will allocate most of its funds to military spending, crippling the already damaged economy from sanctions further. There could be a Brutus figure from within.
Whatever happens now, I see that Ukraine is unconquerable. The entire country is full of civilians armed to the teeth, and the country is flooded with anti tank weapons.
That Z symbol seen on Russian tanks is equivalent to the swastika, the Nazi symbol
Hmm ! One has to wonder what on earth the US are doing with a bunch of MiG 29 in any case ?
I tend to agree with the Deep State Americans in any case - and as a European I certainly wouldnât want my country to participate in this form of provocation !
Here is a report of some propaganda from the other side - quite plausible methinks ?
Especially knowing what we do know about Guantanamo Bay !
" Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has made unverified claims that Russia has discovered U.S. biolabs in the nation to âdevelop ethnically targeted biological weapons,â The Associated Press reported.
How do you develop a weapon that detects the ethnicity of a person exactly? What about persons not ethnically Russian or Ukrainian or whatever, but who support a specific cause/regime? How do you distinguish between them?
Sounds absolutely fictional.
Thereâs also the other side of the equation.
If you believe in the possibilities of bioweapons, it shouldnât be a stretch to believe the above. An âactualâ memo must be as good as information no longer publicly available on a website.
Ukraine has had over 8 years to prepare a dirty bomb or prepare one of its nuclear facilities to fail at just the ârightâ moment. That seems so much easier than developing weapons internally, or using US-made bioweapons against itself or Russia.
the target is a training base of military importance
it has been used by NATO training teams with the Ukrainian forces, so its a âsubtleâ warning to NATO
some repots state that foreign fighters arriving in Ukraine were being actively assembled and trained there
reports state the base was attacked by aircraft, nor shelled by artillery
Russian ground forces are making snail-like progress towards Ukraineâs western border: it seems they donât really want to get there before the cease-fire
Ah okay. I think if aircraft were involved, this attack has even more meaning.
But I was going on the report I posted.
LVIV, Ukraine â Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said it is a âblack dayâ after Russia shelled a military base in the western part of his country.
Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Sunday that Russia fired 30 rockets at the Yavoriv military base. He said the attack killed 35 people and injured 134 injured others.
If you map the location of the base, youâll find it west of Lviv, which is very concerning, as Lviv has been portrayed as being outside of the primary battles happening to the east, up until this attack.
Russia doesnât seem worried about provoking NATO in this instance.
NATO isnât going to be provoked by a conventional military attack on a military base in someone elseâs country, which is at war with a country that NATO is not at war with. Especially when that country is run by its very own mafia and headed by the deranged chancer Zelensky.
That particuar allegation is not the only point raised in my vid - but that is clearly the easiest to discuss - since there are many aspects of âCovidâ which has different effects on different ethnicities and we know that came from UsA funded research at a Chinese Lab !
as to distinguishing ethnicities beng âfictionalâ - Hell even nature has already done this - I cite âsickle cell anaemiaâ.!