Very well said. I remember following this one vetern trader on Twitter who used similar kind of strategy and post his entries on Twitter.
A few times, he would get stuck in a trend going heavily against him. However since he had a lot of ammo in his arsenal, he was always able to adjust his average price and come out profitable even after many days as well.
Very rarely I saw him posting about closing a position in loss. Nevertheless, the positions that were profitable outweighed losses easily.
Perhaps, these fixed position sizes along with SL and TP are the biggest scam ever happened in forex industry.
You may have hit on something here. Although I can see how SL and TP theory could form organically from retail trading, I now think it is perpetuated even in the face of a 95% failure rate among all retail traders, and probably at least 60% - 80% among all but novice traders.
In a way, it makes perfect sense to have a tight or hard stop loss. After all how else would you manage the risk?
But that practice also means you usually go in with the full position size and if it hits your SL, it hits your SL.
On the contrary, one could just enter the market with a small size and build it up gradually as the trade develops.
The current trade I’m in at the moment, I had 6 open positions. Two of which I was able to close in profit at small retracement and then enter the market again as trend continued.
A fixed SL and TP method would have blown my account by now .
@AmericanTrader
Hi, I sent you a dm cuz it kinda involved proprietary stuff but i don’t know if i sent it properly. Could you pls confirm in anyway if you’ve seen it
Those riding the trend made out like bandits today. I’m stuck in a countertrend USD/JPY trade. I’m still working on determining when to switch from counter-trend to going with the trend. I’ve been getting stuck a lot lately (but still ending in profit.) This may be my first one that takes more than 24 hours to come back to profit. I’ll let you know how it turns out.
Wow. That’s a long time to babysit a trade. Sorry you are going through that.
I had a nice Usd/Jpy counter this morning that lasted about 2 hours. That’s a longer one for me. But not by much. When I am holding out for max profit, many of them take over an hour. I had 2 others that were done in less than 5 minutes each. Maybe Its because I trade in the mid London, early NY sessions and have to be done trading by 9am my time so I close most of them early. I can’t imagine babysitting one for 24 hours.
When I was practicing in demo (always counter trend) 2 or 3 years ago on M5 Gpb/Usd - I could trade in the late NY sessions and close 6 or 8 trades in 2 or 3 hours. I remember adding an average of $125 to my account using 0.3 and 0.4 mini lot entries and closing very quickly once in profit. Today, I look back and imagine if I had kept those trades open until the proper closeout signal. Would have been $250 - $350 a day. There were no losses even back then, except for the 1 that volume went down to zero for hours during Sidney session, so I set a stop loss, went to bed, and it got hit.
Also - in the past few days I too have been going back and forth between working on trend vs counter trend trading. I decided that I would focus on the counter trends as I think they conclude much faster than trend trading. If I take a day off work, then I’ll do some trend trades.
This way, I know what to do and I’m not distracted by worrying about which way I’m going to trade…
@AmericanTrader
I don’t mind babysitting them anymore. I’ve gotten comfortable walking away with them open if I have somewhere to be or I need to go to bed. I check on it periodically and add recovery trades if appropriate. Eventually, they all go into profit. The problem is opportunity cost. I can’t make other trades if I’m stuck in one. I have a profit goal of 1% - 2% of my account each day, which I’ve been able to maintain over the last several weeks. Since I was stuck in this one all day, the profit from it needs to compensate me for the time lost. Placing the recovery trades means more of my account is in the trade, so the profits will be multiplied. Usually, I can make enough profit to make up for not being able to trade while stuck.
You are clearly very good.
Although one could say the the longer trade today is self-imposed because of the daily goal, you have the patience and skill to keep with it.
@AmericanTrader
When I was demoing the strategy I had some big losses when I got stuck in some tough trends. When I analyzed the charts in hindsight, I realized they all would have moved into profit if I gave them enough time. While on demo, I experimented with walking away (even going to sleep for the night) with a trade open. When you come back, if it’s moved way against you, place some recovery trades, if not, let it do it’s thing.
I encourage you to experiment with it on a demo account. It gives you more freedom and frees you from the screen.
I’m in a similar situation as you. Have been sitting on this trade since Friday now. Meanwhile, I have been extensively looking at previous such trends and come to realization that eventually they do retrace (though, it may test the depth of your patience).
RED EMA: 5 - GREEN EMA: 9 - Orange EMA: 20 - Blue EMA: 50
Overall, I’m comfortable letting it do its thing knowing in the hindsight that sooner or later. I will be able to close it in profit.
Will update here how it goes. I’m now just simply observing it on 1hr and 4hr time frame and being mentally prepared that this might stretchout for a few more days
Take at look at the trade you’re currently in on the higher time frames (with their EMAs) it’ll give you perspective, and give you an idea of how long it’ll take to come back.
Longest trade this morning 31 minutes. 50 pips total.
91-0
Account increase 0.24%. Yesterday was 0.2%
A little behind schedule to make 6% this month. But I’m still in test mode until June when I hope to start increasing trade order size. So its not like it really matters.
Largest negative was under $40. Getting better. The news 40 minutes ago was a great opportunity that paid off for me.
I used to hate days with a lot of high impact news. Now I don’t hate them anymore.
We are all getting better. I can feel it!
(Quick price movement on the last trade cost me a good 30 pips as I had 12 orders open and couldn’t close them fast enough. ).