Shorting eur/usd

Ahhhh, the rich mans club. Didnt cross my mind, that one. A million dollars on 1:1 would get you how much for a pip again?

Big boys league indeed.

Hello.

Listen up: you and I get on well (on the very few occasions we’ve been posting on the same threads anyway) so I don’t want to ‘ruin the friendship’. Please know that. But I’m afraid that I too have to disagree with you on this one. Oddly enough: I shorted EUR/USD at pretty much the same time as the ‘action’ started here based on my ‘Adam Theory of Markets’. Alright: I got into the trade WAY later that I would have gotten in had I ‘discovered’ Adam Theory a week or two sooner so my stop was 600 pips away from my entry price but would have been WAY less if, as I said, I’d gotten in earlier. So what I’m saying is that the fact that it moved up 200 pips before dropping like a stone is neither here nor there in my opinion. Well: not if you’re a long(er) term trend trader anyway. What I’m saying is that it’s trading system dependant I think. Where Judith would have placed a stop (if at all) only she knows and I cannot say. But I myself sit through trades where they go against me sometimes MORE than 200 points before turning into nice ‘juicy’ profits.

Regards,

Dale.

My exact opinion.

My apologies. Maybe I misread or misunderstood where you were coming from.

Sorry about that.

Regards,

Dale.

Ummmm… I am very rarely over 2:1 leverage on a trade.

I guess I’m not in the big boy’s club…

:18: :18: :18:

Soul, as usual for this posting so far, you have missed the point of the “mocking”. There may have been some off hand commentary, but as for outright mocking, that didn’t start in until she starting slinging slurs around.

as for the record, (and I have a thread on here where I take some of my trades as “live calls”, in real time…so it is absolutly proveable), i’ve been long AND short the eur/usd, though more long recently than not.

I’m up about 6R (that is 6 times my average risk per trade) in that little project thread, SINCE this thread first started, and as for my own primary account, i’ve not been trading it much due to the holidays.

I’m long eur/usd right now in fact… and I may get stoped out. I do on 1/3 of my trades typically. Of course, i’m a day trader primarily, and when I say something has hit a bottom… my time frame is usually a couple days.

and, to continue…i DON"T think the next “big bounce” will be a true longer term trend reversal either. i think it’ll be a retracement…somewhere between 1.33-1.36.

If that happened here…thjis week (which it might.) i’ll be long…and won’t be counting on weakness until around 1.32 at least. thats not to say i’ll be HOLDING A TRADE for that duration. I likley won’t be. I"ll be taking profits every 20-100 pips, and trailing stops, and making multiple entries.

I may go short before that as well… but with caution,m unless we get atg least back to 1.32…then i will primarily be looking for short opportunities.

That is, as long as the news doesn’t shift, and some serious rumors about one of the PIIGS countries leaving the EU spills out and trips a short squeeze of epic proportions.

Basically, as one very saavy trader on here mentioned to me, the euro basically is the D-mark… and as the smaller EU PIIGS countries drop out, this, over the long run, will minimize their effect on the euro and magnify germany. and germany is MUCH more economically viable than italy, spain, greece, etc. And more so than the U.S. in terms of it’s debt/gdp ratio, and so many other factors i do not even care to get into here.

Many think this wil be bearish for the euro. I think that when a shop-aholic and a penny pincher get a divorce…the penny pincher suddenly becomes much more likley to become more financially powerful than ever before.

And I think the market will react in such a manner, if the current debt situation can be accounted for. Tha’ts a big if…but even if sentiment reads this way for a short time, it’ll likley get enough short covering to create a significant move up.

In the mean time, i’ll be going long and short off of major S/R areas for small amounts, and and looking to go short seriously around and above 1.32.

That is, given that the reaction of price to the low it before the retracement justifies my belief that it’s a trend bounce and not a true reversal.

And, btw…i’m leaving a LOT of my thoughts out here.

So, as you seem to have failed to have grasped so far, the point of the mockery is that there is no such thing as a “no brainer”… and that timing is more important than magnitude of a move (at least in my trading), and that bigotry and blind insults are the words of ignorance and foolishness, and IT IS THIS THAT WAS PRIMARILY MOCKED.

Frankly, the reason I haven’t posted up myself is because the topic became stale to me. I made some great money over the 251 pip rise up starting on the day Judith made the post. I never said the euro was going to start a new up trend. and I never for a moment thought we were about to seethe bottom of the euro bear market. Anymore than i thought the october highs of around 1.42 were anything other than a massive retracement in an otherwise forming great down trend.

And I don’t know about you, but I personally won’t take a 250 pip risk unless i was able to count on about a 600-1000 pip profit. I also only like to risk no more than about 1% - 1.5% of my account on any one trade, because I want a career as a trader, and if i take too much risk on any one trade, i can lose my job. I like my job. I’m good at my job… and i’m EXTREMLEY PRUDENT with regards to my job. So for me to bet on a 600 pip to 1000 pip move would be foolish.

The notion of something being a “no brainer” that has sold off over 1000 pips without a serious retracement is NOT selling high. it’s selling pretty darn low.

If you were in business, and something in your industry just dropped 10%… would you be lining up to sell it to others? or would you more likey want to take advantage of the fact that it was on sale…?

I didn’t trade much at all after due to the holiday, and i made a bit more going long lager, around 1.2935ish, and i made more going short around 1.2860ish.

I don’t know how you, or judith, or most posters on this site trade. I just know that real estate investors called out what a no brainer real estate was in 2007. or what tech stocks were in 2000, or what gold was in august of 2011, or what bonds were in the 1980’s, or what oil was in the 1970’s, or what stocks were in 1929…

And every single one of them crashed and burned, a “no brainer” indeed.

You get it now? long term successful trading requires intellegent thought, and generally an impartial emotional attitude, or at very least a great deal of flexibility.

the opening comment of trading the euro short from The price it was when the post was made…was filled with a degree of emotional conviction that I see primarily in amature, losing traders…or the uninformed public.

And the sexist/sales schlepper nonsense was just plain STUPID and INSULTING.

That brings me to ask… do you always defend blind bigotry? or, is this a one time thing here…

Or is it just you, like judith, can’t tell the diffrence between disagreement, thoughtful trading, and personal attacks?

I’ll tell you what I think. I think you got upset for some nonsense reason (probably because you like the euro short), make brash generalizations without knowing all the facts, and probably jump to wrong conclusions a lot more than the average joe.

In fact, I challenge you to seperate your opinion of where the euro is going, from judiths’ sexist comment.

I doubt you can, as you haven’t been able to yet.

Funny thing is, currency trading and world economics have nothing to do with judith or insults, but yet, in your mind, you’ve connected them and persist in her defense because I’m thinking you AGREE with her about the euro!

Guess what. if we hit 1.3200 and I go short. will you suddenly jump ship and agree with me too that you can’t sepearte your feelings from facts?

I mean, after all…i’ll be short with you then. if we share one thing, we must share them all right?

At any rate, your inability to do this is probably going to be in some way my profit in the long run.

If you care to respond and prove to me where I AM MISSING the point… PLEASE do so.

I make a career out of seeing the truth behind the nonsense, and betting on it. So please explain to me why you continue to defend someone who is obviously a highly emotional trader, who was wrong for the first 250 pips of her opening statement, and who called members here sexist, and then accused them of selling nonsense snake oil products.

point to ONE PLACE where defense is justifed. I don’t think you can.

But, I await your response.

Jay

there is no such thing as a “no brainer”…

Well I wouldn’t be so sure about that. I mean to say: there IS Wilder’s Adam Theory and my thread on the subject!!! (Now you KNOW I’m only kidding so don’t go ‘laying into me’ too i.e. I’ve just had to declare my OWN private ‘war’ over at FF so I’m a bit short on ammo at the moment due to the ‘military budget cuts’)!!! LOL!!! ROFLMAO!!!

IF I MAY though (I hope I don’t live to regret this): Judith (according to her last, most welcome, post) isn’t exactly inexperienced. I think it was possibly just the choice of words she used for the title of the thread that ‘sparked’ the ‘outbreak of the war’ here!!! LOL!!! But in all fairness: nobody could have known of her experience in the field at the time.

Alrighty then: time to go and haul out ‘ye olde suit of armour’ AGAIN. The DAMN thing is so heavy and I’m getting tired of having to put it on every five minutes!!! LOL!!! Even worse: the codpiece is too small!!!

Regards,

Dale.

So far, the only thing you’ve shown us of who you are and what you’ve done is that you are an emotional trader, you jump to wrong conclusions, you are hyper-sensitive to the non-existant threat of having to “prove yourself” in a “male dominated world”, you insult people with lies that do not pertain to them, and then you overcome this with other lies about what their intentions are or what they may be trying to sell to others.

You then do not apologize for these things, and then later say you are actually “someone important” via implications in your post.

You also justify your “worth” by stating what you’ve done at what age, regardless of paying heed to your circumstances (the type of culture a millionare father would surround his daughter with is a BIG one. How about buying a home at 21 after you fled as a child from a war torn country as an orphan, or being raised in liberia or something, and now i’m impressed.)

and as far as shorting and holding the eur/usd, it depends on your entry, your target your time frame, your method, potential catalysts that may change things, and the reason for your short (directional, hedge, arbitration, offsetting other trades, managing a delta neutral configuration…etc)

“As far as who you are and what you’ve done”…

Let me put it to you this way. Based on ONLY WHAT YOU HAVE SHOWN SO FAR… if you were GOD, I would put down my bible, and join a pagan cult.

I mean, really, this is an anonymous message board…and you can’t even apologize then? But, your quick to point more at yourself and say “look at me! look at me! i’m going to imply that i’m special by saying i’ve done things and know people!”

Congratulations. you’ve got my attention. I’m looking. I see ambition, drive, enthusiasm, and curiosity. And I also see an absolute LACK of depth of substance and character.

You know…character isn’t just “not lying” It’s more. But I think you somewhere along the way missed that.

Jay

Is it my imagination or ‘just me’ but it seems that people are kinda ‘touchy’ of late??? Is this like ‘withdrawal’ from the festive season or what??? LOL!!!

It’s quite possible you know. It’s a phenomenon that really exists. They’ve done studies about this e.g. nations that have hosted the FIFA World Cup go into a sort of ‘national depression’ for MONTHS after it’s over. Really.

Regards,

Dale.

Dale…you do have a point. And maybe i’m choosing to speak my mind so freely here because it has been a while since i’ve been around, and was surprised to see it still going on to tell u the truth. But when I saw soultrains post, I felt compelled to respond, since he/she made referred indirectly to me and others about being “wrong”. When i saw judith had reposted, i guess by that point i was already on my soap box.

At any rate… I’m actually just done with this all now. I thought it was a good place to point out that new and or inexperienced and or losing traders are great at picking tops and bottoms, and she did indeed end up picking the bottom of a 250 pip upswing.

then, the personal insults came out, everyone made their points, then a lot of jokes were made. good fun was had by almost all, and only at the expense of the original insulter.

However it became stale, and as we all know the holiday came, so i didn’t pay any attention to this thread.

And maybe i shouldn’t have. At this point, i’m just so disgusted with the ignorance and self justifiying statements that I’ll say this. I’m done here. It’s now just either trailing dribble, or irrelevent. And I’m starting to feel this is just a thread i don’t want to spend any more time invested in. I will respond as concisely and as possible one last time to soultrain if he/she responds, because I implied I would. but soultrains response will not be constructive, as I have now gone on the offense, and i don’t see soultrain could do anything but reply with insults.

Well, ok, he/she could see what i’m saying of course! lol…but, it hasn’t happened yet, and it won’t likley happen now either. Besides, I am starting to pin folks in corners, and that makes me the bully, regardless of whether i am right, or justified, or not.

At any rate, it’s not the spirit i’ve quickly come to know and love here at babypips. And I’m still angry at some for stupidly lashing out without reason, because I feel it has created something more negative than ever needed to happen, and this would have been a great subject to REALLY explore (hmm…maybe i’ll start another thread on this…something that is strictly aimed at discussing pros and cons for short/long positions on eur/usd, not at people or their shortcomings)

But I’m done here. You’ve made a good point man… and this is a trading website to help people become better traders.

it’s neither a self help website for insecurties, a flame welcoming website for personal attacks, or a website geared towards gripes. I enjoy a great deal contributing positively…so i’m off to do more of just that. contribute positively. :slight_smile:

I hope all posting make a lot with their trades… I sincerely mean that.

As for me… i’m prepping to get short on the U.S. stock markets… and possibly to take a 10 year U.S. bond breakout. Nothing like defaulting G20 nations to freak out stock market investors and cash into good ol’ treasury bonds…

at least until the U.S. starts to raise interest rates, which at this point, I have no idea when it will do that. lol

Jay

P.S. in the interest of positive contributions…here are two headline articles I found interesting.

News Headlines - reasons the euro should go up

News Headlines - reasons the euro should go down

On further note… even the down guy says he’d be wary of selling here…and would wait for a bounce to 2900.

Cool. so the down guy is up to 2900, and the up guy is up period. I know what I’ll be doing for the next 24-36 hours anyway :wink:

Hehe, the same $5,000 on 1:200 will get you: 100 bucks a pip.

O.

Or take away 100 bucks a pip from us also.

Well Jay (I always feel like I’m speaking to Jay Leno when I say ‘Well Jay’):

Don’t ‘sweat it’ (and some additional ‘succinct’ points made in your two posts too and I hope you feel better now too). LOL!!!

Look: so far as I’m concerned ‘the silly season’ ends tonight at midnight so we (I) had better make the most of it.

So I was just thinking:

There IS ANOTHER way of looking at things here. Maybe it’s BECAUSE she doesn’t take nonsense from sexists like us (well like me anyway) that she WAS able to buy a home and pay for it in eight years herself. And I mean: if Jessica err… Judith managed to do that well then she’s got my vote and I’ll gladly change my stance (from being a sexist to a ‘house husband’). I mean: I got no problem wearing an apron, doing the dishes and the laundry, cleaning house, and mowing the lawn and cleaning the pool (well supervising the moving of the lawn and the cleaning of the pool i.e. let me not ‘push it’ here). Just so long as I’ve got cigarettes, rum, and gasoline in the Bugatti!!! LOL!!! And, well, the other ‘usual benefit’ now and then!!! ROFLMAO!!!

Regards,

Dale.

Edit:

Oops: forgot about the American Express Titanium Card (or is it known as the ‘Black’ Card)??? LOL!!!

Well yes, anyone can brag, nothing like a bit of Forex trading to bring one down a peg or two, the vast majority of the BP members are a much more modest bunch.

I re-read the thread and nobody mocked her view in the pair, we all just gave the reasons not to short at that moment.

It does not take an expert to tell that E/U is bearish from 1.4300, my long term view is that the pair might reach 1.23, 1.18 or 1.10 before a change of trend.

But in between there are some longs opportunities, when the OP opened the thread I posted a chart and some reasons to go long… they were good for 200 pips of 50% of my position and 100 pips for the other 50%

Now, what the OP DID was to defend her view with SEXISM, when the discussion change direction.

Seems like some just want to be smartasses but only after the facts



Oh Lordie, couldn’t help it.

Edit: Sorry Purple, couldn’t help it. XD

LOL!!!

We’ve had a discussion of this nature before!!! Personally speaking: my modesty (or lack thereof) would be directly positively correlated to the amount of money I was making and what I was doing with it!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

Now, what the OP DID was to defend [B]his[/B] view with SEXISM, when the discussion change direction.

Dont you mean [B]‘her’[/B]???

Seems like some just want to be smartasses but only after the facts

I hope you’re not including me in that!!! LOL!!!

I was also just thinking:

Do you know that it’s taken me nearly 4 000 posts to achieve the same level of notoriety as it had taken Jessica (DAMN!!!) err … Judith to accomplish the same in only 8 posts??? That’s not fair!!! LOL!!!

Regards,

Dale.

sorry :slight_smile: yes “her” English is not my first language…

No, I was not thinking in you Dale :slight_smile: