You just bought ‘some’ what???
Look: I’m out of my ‘comfort zone’ here discussing all this stuff which REALLY is ‘fundamentals’ so I’m basically making ‘wild statements’ (as ‘educated’ as I may believe they are). While this MAY be an election year: I’m not sure on this but I doubt that there have been too many election years where ‘potential catastrophes’ are ‘just across the sea’ or ‘just around the corner’???
Enlighten me.
Regards,
Dale.
Dale, please enlighten me what potential catastrophes are around the corner. The Titanic is already lost, so that can’t happen anymore, lol! Plus the sister ship is lost also. LOL! Frankly, if they all at the Titanic would think like ppl think now that the earth will become out of a sudden a doom place because of maya and the fiber is going to zero and I don’t know what else, what would have happened with the Titanic? 
I bought fiber. Anyways, don’t buy it also, lol! I am just hedging. Frankly, I bought fiber back, because I bought bucks last year, but now then I guess I need some more euros, so I bought them back. 
Hello.
OK look: we’re coming at this from different angles really. Remember that all I’m trying to do is prove or disprove Adam Theory is all. So all I’m saying is that according to Adam Theory: EUR/USD is going to ‘tank’ at some point. That’s my starting point and ‘basis’. Then I sit back and watch all the other things that are going on. Everything is a ‘mess’ and that ‘mess’, at least the way I understand it, cannot be good for the EUR in the long run. Credit downgrades, POTENTIAL credit downgrades (of countries and banks), no real ‘meat’ coming from any of these ‘summits’, investment banks talking the EUR down to 1.2500 (and even possible parity with the USD sometime next year), that type of thing. I guess all I’m saying is that I’m keen to see how this all ‘pans out’. I’m by NO means ‘betting the farm’ on this one. I’m just keen to see the Adam Theory trade through to its logical conclusion is all. One more thing worth mentioning: people seem to think (it would appear) that if you look at the Weekly chart of EUR/USD there’s ALMOST a double bottom (for what that’s worth). Somebody else has a chart here somewhere showing EUR/USD retracing or bouncing from a MONTHLY Fib level (which one I forget now i.e. I’m too tired to think now). The point is that sometimes these levels hold and sometimes they don’t. I’m betting that they don’t based on the ‘pea soup’ that I’ve described above is all.
Like I said: it’s just an experiment really. But you have to admit: if Adam is right about Gold, EUR/USD, and the DOW, not to mention BAC, well, then, it’d be hard to say that it has NO merit. Wilder admits that it’s never going to be right all of the time. THAT goes without saying for ANY system or methodology. He also notes that Adam Theory WILL ALWAYS be wrong at tops and bottoms and explains why. And, well, it just makes sense to me. The only ‘unknown’ here really is IF there is INDEED ‘symmetry’ in the markets or not. And that I guess is what I’m trying to find out is all.
Regards,
Dale.
Hmm, regarding those downgradings and what somebody says about parity (don’t they say that since years already?), I guess that is all the bells and whistles what is not really relevant for my trading or investment decisions. I just looked at those ratings and suggestions and everything for fun some time and they were all SO wrong, you can’t imagine HOW wrong they were, lol. If I’d have the choice to have faith in either a monkey or an analyst, I’d give my money the monkey. Seriously!
Regarding Adam: To prove it has an edge needs at minimum 100 trades and 2 years, imho. Plus then as I wrote already via pm, it all goes with applying it at the right time. If you start with any continuation strategy of a trend I’d look not to join the party too late.
Regarding fiber weekly, what I can see there is a hs pattern. Albeit that’s a weekly and as currencies rather seem to range in higher tfs, I wouldn’t care too much about this. Not to say that it’s not finished yet and there are a dozen contrary signals. Particular with my favorable beta -2 values.
Well, that being said we all know everything can happen any time, but I see now probabilities in favor of an upmove. Doesn’t mean that’s written in stone and I can’t change my mind next week, but what I see for the next weeks is rather some upmoves.
Oh and those summits, I hope no smart investor is betting anything related to politician babbling, lol. It is inevitable that the debt bubble will be inflated over time. Tho, that’s not only an issue of the fiber. If I look in the direction of DC I can see a lot more of those zeros.
However, it’s indeed a question of timeline. Take 5 or 10 years and the fiber could well hit parity or below. Albeit in a time of 1 year I wouldn’t bet on that. Look with all the bad news where we are: Still 30% above the buck. China likes to diversify their dollar portfolio and some others as well. The piigs might generate issues again and again, but isn’t this the inherent drive of a fiat currency? It’s all debt and no money or good with intrinsic value, so it’s just following it’s use. In fact, the more they “print”, the better it is for a debt currency. As long as we don’t reach the final stage!
Well, seems like Judith get’s a chance to unload her shorts now with a small loss. Remember, not accepting a small loss means having to deal with a big one, lol.
Just in case you thought I wasn’t paying attention:
“I’ll short it to ZERO” (well to parity anyway) as long as Adam tells me I’m trading in the right direction and going WITH the market not AGAINST it!!! LOL!!!
The young calf and the old bull??? LOL!!!
So sorry I’ve not posted yet today (although I did get my ‘early morning upper’ when I awoke and checked on this and leandar’s thread) i.e. I had to do some REAL work today!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hello Dale!
Well, I hope you trade on [U]demo[/U] til (your account?) zero, lol. Now today it didn’t even went til S1 where my order was lurking. Now back again above pp.
Just have a look at the cot charts instead of Adam. Comms are heavily net short so what will likely happen then?
LOL!!!
YOU look at the COT charts. I’ll worry about Adam!!! LOL!!! Of COURSE I’m ‘gloating’ NOW. But I’ll be man enough to ‘cry on your shoulder’ IF Adam is wrong too!!! Make no mistake about that!!! LOL!!!
And there is one thing I need to mention (just BY the way):
As I told you: I took your advice after I’d more than doubled that ‘no deposit $20 bonus’ account and closed the position. THEORETICALLY and had I not done that: I’d still be short on the same position and at no point in time since my opening of the original position would the position have been in a loss. It’s only because (as you noted) that I ‘jumped in’ again a bit later. But if you took it as ONE trade: thus far even the price action of yesterday and today would not have caused the original position to have ever been in a loss.
As I noted: I’m not ‘living and dying’ by Adam. But I DO want to find out if it has merit. And you know me and demo trading. Even although I sometimes say I WISH I’d demo traded for a LONG time before committing real funds to my first trading account: I know my good intentions would not have lasted too long!!! But I think in THIS case you’re referring to my ‘no deposit $20 bonus’ account as being a ‘demo’ account so I 'get the picture.
And really: I’m just ‘mucking about’ here and not taking trading too seriously at the moment as you know. I feel ‘spent’ to be honest. I’ve missed the ‘Santa Claus Rally’ on the major indices and you know what??? For the first time in my (trading) life I can tell you honestly that it’s not bugged me in the least. This, to me, is ‘the silly season’. I look forward to starting the new year with a ‘clean slate’ (although I just KNOW I’ll be going into the new year with a profitable short position on EUR/USD)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
LOL!
Nah, I hadn’t in mind a particular account. Just demo. Because I mean if you expect BAC to go up and not down til 5 cent then the fiber can’t go til zero. If the fiber goes til zero I guess BAC with 5 cent a share would still be overbought. 
Ahhh… But you see. There’s the ‘secret’.
I’m not saying that BAC is going up OR down. I’m just saying that SOMETHING is GOING to happen shortly. A reverse share swap will make the price go up but ‘articially’ for want of a better word. Or it could ‘close its doors’ or it could become part of an M&A deal. NONE of which should have any effect on EUR/USD. In other words: taking BAC ‘in isolation’ shouldn’t make difference. Now if you are talking on a SECTOR BY SECTOR basis: well then that’s another story I guess.
Regards,
Dale.
How come this thread ‘died such a sudden death’???
And how come I missed THIS post anyway:
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/42061-shorting-eur-usd-6.html#post303052
Actually: I only know about the post because ‘it’ (again: being careful here) just posted on leandars thread!!! LOL!!!
I too scared to even ASK about the avatar, the car, and for a date (and in this case maybe even for a loan). Remember the ‘Jessica saga’??? LOL!!! But what the hell: I’ll give it a bash (no pun intended either) anyway!!! LOL!!!
Anyway and now that I’m here: anyone noticed where the Euro is now??? It’s nice to be able to compare WHAT happened with what others THOUGHT was going to happen is it not???
Regards,
Dale.
Probably because when the eur/usd began sliding even further into the mud the venerable sages at the beginning of the thread who mocked her view of further declines were praying it would disappear without trace.
I bet it wouldn’t have been so quiet had we been staring at 1.3400 instead of 1.2700.
Looks like one or two of them need her more than she needs them, LOL.
ROFLMAO!!!
You make some ‘succinct’ points!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Edit:
Sorry but I was just thinking though: some good points were made let’s face it. I mean: to ‘just short’ or ‘just long’ something on a ‘whim’ is probably not the best method of making money. I think that was the point that some were trying to make really. I mean I ‘just shorted’ EUR/USD based on a then (and still) untried and untested trading system (my thread on The Adam Theory of Markets) but at least is was based on SOMETHING.
THEN AGAIN: I know of an experiment detailed somewhere where purely random trades were opened (pretty much like throwing darts). The irony is that the final outcome was indeed profitable BUT only for ONE reason and that was sound money management. So I dunno. Figure THAT one out!!! LOL!!!
Thank you for your comments. My sound money managment meant I bought a house at 21 and paid it off at 28 after starting a business and selling it within 6 years. As much as there is wisdom in what you said and everyone has their own methods which they are comfortable with. My father who had an education up to 13 in Canada built a massive buying group to help independent retailers. He is a millionaire. Economically it is pretty obvious in the international sense the blind have led the blind . I was shocked when I lived in the UK that one could buy a home with 0% downpayment. In Canada we had to save and scrape up 25% and have proof of an excellent credit rating and two secure jobs. Canada is oneof the strongest countries in the world today based on commonsense and alot of hardwork. I am not a hardcore FX trader and learning but commonsense has always worked for me and it waspretty obvious Europe has overextended itself it was just a matter of time before it tanked which it did this week. I traded equities in the stockmarket and did very well before the crash. Little bits everyday and dont get greedy. I would not venture to deep into other currency pairs right now until I do some more study. There is balance in everything in life.it just seemed too obvious to me that the EUR/USD had to go lower…worked for me and got out this week ahead…so far my principals in life have worked…give some…save some…spend some…
Has also worked in the positions I have worked in…which is why I just laugh when the guys mocked me before…I will not disclose who I am or what I have done…just smile and move on…thank you for you comment …and you do have valid points…of course we need to make intellectual choices especially in the financial markets…I only asked a question …does anyone think shorting and holding the EUR/USD might be a good thing?..anyway have been trading EUR/USD with a great broker great …bonuses and rebates…so I just kept on making money even on the rrades…very pleased…thanks again for your comment…appreciated…
Good for you girl.
You do right. If yakking, bragging & blowing hot air was an Olympic sport most of this lot would be gold medal winners.
Not forgetting the fact that EU actually shot up by 200 pips or so from the time this thread was started and dropped about 200 plus pips from that same point.
When we leverage 1:200 or more and are compounding, it would be absolutely unwise to take broad fundamental trades.
A 200 pip move against from the point of entry is not what I would call a valid trade call, nor would I say an eventual back in to a 200+ profit range a " I told you so " trade statement.
Good for you!
And do yourself a favor. Stay away from asking advise, because most of the time, as you said about the international economy, it’s the blind leading the blind in forex too.
Make your moves based on your own individual strategy, and stick to your guns. It’s really a personal decision. One trader’s short is almost always another trader’s long. They may both win in the end, but the debate is usually problematic. So avoid the confusion, and don’t worry about what others do. And don’t ask them permission either;)
Cheers!
Whoah!!!
First; I’m pleasantly surprised that you didn’t desert BabyPips and very pleased that you posted. Second: don’t just go doing another ‘disappearing act’!!! LOL!!! Third: you traded equities so that immediately puts you on my ‘friend’ list!!! LOL!!!
And ACTUALLY maybe YOU can answer a question for me that nobody else has been able to answer given that you live in Canada. Why does the TSE60 seem to be on it’s ‘own mission’??? As you may or may not know I ONLY trade equities (well CFDs on the major indices) and the TSE60 doesn’t seem to be as highly and positively correlated with any of the other major indices and it’s had me wondering why for a good while now. I mean (as an example): most of the time I can just look at the Dow and almost guarantee that the DAX is moving in the same direction. That type of thing. But not so with the TSE60. Just curious really. It’s a very nice index to trade though.
And FAR be it from ME to be giving you advice or input as it would seem that you have the experience but, for what it’s worth, take a look at my ‘Adam Theory of Markets’ thread and see what you think (about EUR/USD especially after my post of today).
Regards,
Dale.
Maybe she wasn’t leveraged at 200:1… And a 1:1 current r/r scenario isn’t completely out of bounds for a solid strat.
Just sayin’
Geez!!!
In the time it took me to type my reply to your post there were ALREADY three or four replies posted (and believe me I ‘touch type’ PROPERLY and I’m quite fast too)!!! LOL!!! Seems to me you’ve become ‘quite the celebrity’ around here!!! LOL!!!
Your REAL name is not ‘Jessica’ by any chance??? LOL!!! Don’t worry: it’s just a ‘now tired’ old joke that been ‘doing the rounds’ since December!!! LOL!!! If you’ve got the time and are in the mood for a bit of laugh then see here:
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/42197-hello-everyone-forex-africa.html
Regards,
Dale.