Sunday Breakout Strategy

phil838 · October 15, 2009, 9:20am

EUR/JPY broke even for me. It crossed the BE point by a few pips before falling and getting stopped out.

If the high on Tuesday would have been a couple pips lower it would have been a winner for me too.

nutrader · October 15, 2009, 9:24am

Are you trading the Sunday Breakout as cable produced 2 losing trades this week

nutrader · October 15, 2009, 9:31am

very unlucky there & just shows that Hitting BE early doesnt always pay off as I sometimes move my SL a few pips early but will think twice in the future

01005379 · October 15, 2009, 10:26am

Yes, I use Sunday Breakout strategy and and buy was opened on Thuesday and not on Monday.

phil838 · October 15, 2009, 11:00am

What criteria are you using for entering the trades?

Nutrader is right, GBP/USD had two losers this week. The trade on Tuesday, while a winner, shouldn’t have been entered.

01005379 · October 15, 2009, 11:25am

GBPUSD:
BUY 1.5889, TP 1.6064, SL 1.5829, 2xSL 1.5959, 40%ATR 1.6033
SELL 1.5824, TP 1.5649, SL 1.5884, 2xSL 1.5754, 40%ATR 1.5680

phil838 · October 15, 2009, 2:30pm

Your numbers seem to be 10-20 pips off from mine, but that’s probably just due to your broker opening up earlier on Sunday than mine.

It’s not a problem, you’ll get the same results as everyone else over the long-term, but your results will be different on a week-to-week basis from most other people’s.

MattW2009 · October 15, 2009, 3:25pm

Phil,

As you know, I trade your strategy slightly differently and was wondering what your winrate for the last 3 months has been and the average R on your wins?

newbietrader · October 15, 2009, 4:30pm

I entered EURJPY at 132.46 and it hit my take profit at 133.66. My stop loss was 131.86 which I never moved. When was I supposed to move the stop to breakeven? And does this chart look the same as yours?

phil838 · October 16, 2009, 5:10pm

I didn’t trade for 3 weeks in August because of my car accident, but I filled in the gaps by looking at my charts and recording what would have happened. My numbers from July 1st to this week on GBP/USD are:

Win rate: 17%
R-multiple: 8.03
Account gain (at 2% risk per trade): 14.7%

I have to admit I haven’t been keeping good records on my EUR/JPY trades, so these results are GBP/USD only.

Also, I did break the rules on one trade because the price bounced off a S+R line and a trendline right before my profit target. I closed the trade early and got a winner, but if I’d followed the rules to the letter that trade would have been a loser. If you discount that trade my win rate drops to 14.2%, my R-multiple drops to 4.93, and my return to 8%.

If you’re comparing my mechanical results to yours then you probably should use those numbers.

phil838 · October 16, 2009, 5:19pm

Your chart looks different than mine because of the difference in broker time zones, but I’m sure the data is roughly the same.

You’re TP was way too low, though. It should have been around 134.30.

You should have moved the stoploss to breakeven when the trade reached 2 times the original stoploss. The BE point was around 133.40 this week.

phil838 · October 16, 2009, 5:41pm

Thanks Amanda.

All the wounds have healed now and I’m 100% back to normal! I have a stronger hatred of drunk drivers now, though, since one hit me.

MattW2009 · October 17, 2009, 11:05am

phil838:

I didn’t trade for 3 weeks in August because of my car accident, but I filled in the gaps by looking at my charts and recording what would have happened. My numbers from July 1st to this week on GBP/USD are:

Win rate: 17%
R-multiple: 8.03
Account gain (at 2% risk per trade): 14.7%

I have to admit I haven’t been keeping good records on my EUR/JPY trades, so these results are GBP/USD only.

Also, I did break the rules on one trade because the price bounced off a S+R line and a trendline right before my profit target. I closed the trade early and got a winner, but if I’d followed the rules to the letter that trade would have been a loser. If you discount that trade my win rate drops to 14.2%, my R-multiple drops to 4.93, and my return to 8%.

If you’re comparing my mechanical results to yours then you probably should use those numbers.

Cheers Phil, that’s just what I was after. I was beginning to worry that my mechanical return of 16% over the same period was falling behind yours so it’s good to know it’s still on a par.

williampdx · October 18, 2009, 6:23pm

Has anyone out there noticed a correlation between successful trades, or unsuccessful trades for that matter, and Sunday gaps? As some will see today, the Sunday bar opened with a pretty significant gap between it and Friday close. Is this a red flag, much like a really large Sunday candle? Historically, has anyone taken a look at this???

s050399b · October 18, 2009, 7:27pm

I am running the EA on IBFX GMT0, and GoMarket GMT2 to test the GMT offset feature

manusiatengik · October 18, 2009, 8:20pm

hi phill

i want to ask u about ATR
which one did we use, ATR(14) previous week or current week?
if we use the current week, the value still change until weekend.

thanks

nottaah · October 18, 2009, 8:35pm

Hi Folks,

Thanks for posting the system Phil.
I’m still reading through the 100+ pages but I think I’ve got the main idea. Could someone confirm the trades for today on GBPUSD? I’ve got the following:

Sell at 1.6302 with SL 1.6372 and TP 1.6095
Buy at 1.6382 with SL 1.6312 and TP 1.6589

weekly ATR(14) = 414
so TP is set to 207

Am I correct? Looks like my short was triggered if I am.

s050399b · October 18, 2009, 9:30pm

Rei · October 18, 2009, 10:09pm

That’s about what I got.
My short triggered as well.
I think Phil goes to sleep now that he is using an EA for this trade.

nottaah · October 18, 2009, 10:39pm

Thanks Rei. Nice to know I’m on the right track.