G/U hi 1.5179, lo 1.5151, atr 337 long above 1.5192, sl 1.5151, tp 1.5360. short below 1.5141, sl 1.5182, tp 1.4975
E/J hi 121.39, lo 121.01, atr 674 long above 121.52, sl 120.91, tp 124.89. short below 120.91, sl 121.52, tp 117.57
my values have always been wrong, someone pl confirm
My numbers this week on GU are:
Top 15177
Bottom 15126
ATR 338
so long is triggered ?
Hi, Rei
Iāve been reading along with you on this thread, although I havenāt been posting here for some time.
For the past couple of months, I have been developing a different version of the Sunday Breakout Strategy, which I might bring to the Forum in the future, if it tests out.
Regarding Philās Sunday Breakout Strategy, which you and several others are still trading, I wanted to address the issue you raised in your last post here, last Wednesday evening. That was the issue of which candles to use at which times of the year.
Actually, there are two separate issues here.
B[/B] When Phil introduced this strategy, he said that the period on which the analysis is based (letās call this the āboxā) is 8pm-midnight London time. He called this 20:00-00:00 GMT (although we know that London time is GMT+1 during the summer). Iāll get back to daylight saving time in a moment.
Phil referred to the 20:00-00:00 GMT box, because his IBFX platform labeled the 4-hour candle on Sunday that way. But, as we have discussed on this thread, his platform was actually including only 1 hour of price data in that ā4-hourā candle.
So, regardless of what Phil said, he was actually trading the HIGH and LOW of the 1-hour period 23:00-00:00 GMT. In other words, 11pm-midnight London time was the actual box that Phil was trading.
That leaves us with a choice: should we trade what Phil said the box period was, or should we trade the period he was actually trading?
As I indicated previously on this thread, I think itās clear that we should do what Phil did, not what Phil said. That is, we should use the 1-hour period from 11pm to midnight, London time, to determine the HIGH and the LOW for this strategy.
We can get the HIGH and LOW from the 1-hour chart, or from any lower-time-frame chart. When I was trading this strategy, I used the 5-minute chart to find the HIGH and LOW of the period, because I wanted to see details of the price action within that 1-hour period. But, other traders might have different preferences.
Itās certainly confusing to have a strategy which uses a 1-hour box, but calls it a 4-hour box. But, thatās what weāre left with.
B[/B] The time-zone question hasnāt been adequately addressed, and thatās my fault. On this forum, we have members in most of the 24 time zones around the world, some of whom go onto and off of daylight saving time at various times in the spring and fall. I wonāt try to answer this question for all of those time zones. But, I will answer it for your time zone.
You are in Sydney, which is currently on (southern hemisphere) daylight saving time. Your time zone, currently AEDT (Australian Eastern Daylight Time) is GMT + 11 hours. London is currently on standard time, which for London means GMT.
Therefore, the 11pm-midnight Sunday (London time) box, which Iām strongly urging you to use, is 10am-11am Monday, your time.
If you have access to price data for the time period 8pm-midnight Sunday (London time), and choose to use that time period for your box ā which I do not recommend ā the equivalent time in Sydney would be 7am-11am Monday.
Having said all that, now hereās the bad news: between now and April 4, these times will change twice for you guys in Australia, once when London goes onto daylight saving time, and once (a week later) when your part of Australia returns to standard time.
What that means for your time conversions is this:
[ul]
[li]until March 28, 11pm-midnight GMT (London standard time) = 10am-11am AEDT (Sydney daylight saving time)
[/li]
[li]from March 28 - April 4, 11pm-midnight BST (London daylight saving time) = 9am-10am AEDT (Sydney)
[/li]
[li]from April 4 until sometime in October, 11pm-midnight BST (London) = 8am-9am AEST (Sydney standard time)
[/li][/ul]
I hope this helps to answer your questions.
Clint
Hi Clint, Rei & all others on this thread, i would like to comment on the previous couple of posts. Clint i think you have added some valuable content to this thread but i disagree on the points you raised in the last post.
Firstly the time zone used to trade this strategy is based on GMT not London time as it aims to capture the initial market movement of the trading week as major markets begin to open, most notably Australian & NZ markets. therefore London time is irrevelent here.
Secondly & a point which has also caused much confusion for me is the exact hours used to establish the high & low from the sunday candles. phill based this strategy on his ibfx charts which begins its data feed at 10pm GMT during the summer months.
I can confirm this as for many months during last summer when phill used to post his number up, they always matched my hours from 10-12GMT. My data feed starts earlier but to match up with phills numbers i used to discard the earlier candles.
Sadly, around the same time that daylight saving clocks changed around the world, Phill disapeared from babypips & this is where the confusion started. I began noticing discrepencies with figures being posted, some were for just the last hour some for longer, I always tried to check & match with my figures. Therefore i think that for some reason ibfx starts its feed at 11pm GMT during the winter months & in that case Phill must have unknowingly based his backtesting on the 2 hours of sunday data during the summer months & 1 hour during the winter months
Therefore to summarise, i would suggest that those who trade this method should use GMT time as that never changes, as for the amount of hours of sunday data used to establish entries, in the long run i am guessing it doesnt really matter but to keep with the tried & tested method which has been thoroughly backtested by phill use the 2 hours (10-12 GMT) during the summer months & just the last hour during the winter months.
I am still following this method closely but have not been trading it so much except for last week as i guessed cables run of losses had to end soon & luckily for me it did with a win on the short side. However i needed some clarification on this methods success rate & have began backtesting EY from 2004. I am less than half way through but so far the results are encouraging with consistent profits of about 30% per year with with a 1% risk per trade & as much as 60% when the risk is increased to 2%
I chose EY to start my backtesting as since following this method last year it seemed to shower a higher success rate than cable and also seemed less prone to prolonged drawdowns which we have sometimes experienced with cable & so far my backtesting backs this theory, but there is still a few years of data to work through & just to throw another spanner into the works My backtesting history only shows the last hour of sunday data (11-midnight GMT) during the whole trading year regardless of daylight saving
hmmm This week, another loss, not sure my account can take much more losses with this method!! will give it another two weeks!!
Lost out on the long on the gbp/usd and ej/jpy, my short was opened! so will see how i do on thatā¦ at work so canāt post my entriesā¦
Reiā¦ how did you do this week/ as well as everyone else still trading this method
G.U hit SL in long and hit TARGET in short !!!
E.J hits SL in long and short is in trade (+15 pips now)
IN my ibfx account., on GBPUSD ā¦ the SL was 1.5177 , the 8:00 candle has a high of 1.5179 , so this is a SL to me on shortā¦
this week tradeā¦
GU both triggered - long was stopped (-71pips) and short hit TP (167pips)
EJ long triggered and stopped at (-48pips) and long was triggered and still in pos (-5)ā¦
so, net profit for this week is 43pips (considering i close the EJ position)
Nutrader ā You are correct. Thanks for pointing this out. I have incorrectly taken GMT to imply London time, and this is not what Phil meant, at all. My mistake.
I think we can now all agree that the time period on which this strategy is based ENDS at 00:00 (midnight) GMT.
If your trading platform and charts are set to GMT, then you need not concern yourself with time zones. If your trading platform and charts are set to a different time zone, you will have to figure out the correct time conversion to GMT. And you will have to be alert to any possible change to this conversion due to daylight saving time in your time zone. All that is pretty easily managed.
ā¦for some reason ibfx starts its feed at 11pm GMT during the winter months & in that case Phill must have unknowingly based his backtesting on the 2 hours of sunday data during the summer months & 1 hour during the winter months.
Thereforeā¦use the 2 hours (10-12 GMT) during the summer months & just the last hour during the winter months.
I disagree with this plan. Switching back and forth between a 1-hour period and a 2-hour period every six months is confusing and unnecessary.
In my opinion this strategy should be defined by the 1-hour candle which opens at 23:00 GMT and closes at 00:00 GMT.
ā¦just to throw another spanner into the works My backtesting history only shows the last hour of sunday data (11-midnight GMT) during the whole trading year regardless of daylight saving
I think this basically reinforces my point that we should use that 1-hour candle.
Thanks again for correcting my error.
Clint
I got a loss / win last week and a win to the short this week on GU mainly because I have been taking the two candles 1100-0000 GMT + 0000-0100 GMT instead of just the one.
Regardless of which candles you take, it should all average out in the long run. It would be nice to know how Phil did his backtest, but it probably wont make much difference either way. I think you are both right, nutrader and clint, but just to clarify the situation at the end of last year (when the time difference between UK and Sydney was +9 instead of the +11 it is presently) Phil was placing his trades at 10am AEST (not 9am) = 0100 BST = 0000 GMT. Then around Oct last year, I went through the reverse of the three time changes you described and suddenly it appeared to me that one of the 1H candles got chopped off, and I was placing my trades an hour late. But anyway, its not that important. It did manage to give me a bit more profit in the last two weeks trading 
but Im sure the opposite will happen where I end up losing a couple of trades relative to you guys to even it out. 
where is everyone ? no updates today
Candle High: 1.5166
Candle Low: 1.5125
ATR: 3433
OSP Buy: 1.5167
OSP Buy SL: 1.5125
OSP Buy TP: 1.5339
OSP Sell: 1.5124
OSP Sell SL: 1.5166
OSP Sell TP: 1.4952
Stop Loss (pips): 420
Target Profit (pips): 1716
Reward to Risk: 4.1
Set OSP Buy SL to BE when: 1.5251
Set OSP Sell SL to BE when: 1.5040
Long Activated, then Stopped out.
Hi Synergistik,
I think you should be adding 10 pips to either side of the high and low. So the buy and sell should be 1.5176 and 1.5115. One pip is 0.0001 not 0.00001. Everything else is about what I got this week.
both trades got stopped out unfortunately.
Too late
I use IBFX so their price quotes to the 5th decimal. I didnāt account for this, and so my long got hit early, then it went up and then stopped out.
My short got hit, then it hit my BE target, but I was asleep, so I couldnāt change it :mad:
So, ofcourse as fate would have it, it spiked to my stop, before continuing the down trend.
Darn.
Thank God for Demosā¦
Iām actually working on an EA to be able to do all of this for me. And I keep having to double check that my Pip value is adjusted for IBFX MT4 platform.
Thanks for the heads up.
Cheers,
Synergy
still following this strategy:D
The reports of my death are greatly exaggeratedā¦
Iām happy to see this thread is still alive! I took a break from Babypips last October because there was more bickering and arguing going on than forex trading. Since then Iāve dipped into my forex earnings to go back to school to work on my MDiv, so I havenāt had much time for forums, or trading for that matter. For some reason the idea popped into my head to check in at Babypips tonight, so here I amā¦ 
Iāve been focusing on my schoolwork, and I havenāt even looked at a forex chart since the semester started in January, so I canāt comment or help with things like current trades or win/loss rates. I donāt have time to catch up on the entire thread but I read the last few pages and can give my opinion on which 1-hour candles to use.
All my backtesting and my 1+ year of trading this system live is based on whatever time period the 20:00-00:00 GMT candle on IBFX covered. That does indeed switch from 1 hour to 2 hours depending on the season. I never noticed this until the time change of Spring '09, and never thought to mention it in the system rules since I wrote them in May '09 and the issue was completely gone from my mind.
I agree with Clint that it makes no sense to switch from 1 to 2 hours at different times of the year, and can be confusing for some people, but it never was for me because I just looked at a 4H IBFX chart a few minutes before midnight GMT and used whatever the 4H bar showed.
I canāt really say if 1 hour, 2 hours, or whatever else would be best, since my backtesting and experience was a mixture of 1 and 2 hours. If you want to follow the rules that I used in backtesting religously, and you just arenāt sure what time that really is, get an IBFX demo account and see when it starts.
Personally, I donāt think it matters. Anywhere from 1 to 4 hours of data will probably yield close to the same results over time, but some unique incident might have happened in the last few months that I donāt know about.
Anyway, those are my thought on the issue. Like I said, I donāt have time to check the forums anymore, but I have changed my settings to send me an email when I get a PM in case anyone has any questions that arenāt answered in the thread. I donāt mind answering questions, but when I logged in my PM box was full of questions that could have been answered by doing a forum search, so please try that before you PM me.
And please remember that I donāt have the time to do detailed analysis of things like I used too.
Phil
Hey Phil! Thanks for clearing that up. Wow M.Div is totally different from forex trading. I wish you well in your studies
hello guys
Is anybody using the EA for sunday breakout stregady?
Thanks Phill, for confirming pretty much what i thought concerning the 1 or 2 hour candle. good to see youāre still alive