Rei how long have you been trading this system now? seems like about 1 year. how has it performed? is it consistent with the backtesting. I traded it for about 6 months until end of 2009 & did quite well until the end of the year when when we had several double losses within a few weeks which cancelled out most if not all of the gains. have those losses been recouped now & is the method showing a return for a year of trading? I am very interested to know because i found it a very easy system to trade but for some reason did not continue
thanks
ps. welcome back phill, look forward to seeing you trading here again
Yeah, Iām interested to hear your results as well.
The whole time I traded it live and in demo I had positive results, but it seemed as soon as I stopped everything went downhill!
Do you have records of all your trades? If so I would love to have them to add to mine so we can have current updated results of the method and I can update the spreadsheet on the first post.
I did read on and this technique isnāt considered āa hedgeā but my question is this. Where can I read up on this ? I need to know if I can use this technique and how they stop me from doing it ?
Iāve been demo trading for a while and have found that on plateaus if I buy and sell simultaneously and then set stop losses on both of them and a trailing stop on both I very often walk off with a fair amount of pips. Usually in the 15min or 5min time frame.
Iām guessing this is called hedging and this is being banned by the NFA ?
Love your trading strategy. Adding it to my collection of āfigure out why this worksā list Thanks !
Unfortunately I havenāt used a nice neat set up on my spreadsheet and Ive mixed in trades from other things and I have a caluclation to convert to and from AUD so its a bit of a mess. But I am certain that I have done no worse than if I had followed the system to the letter.
I started live trading this system end of Aug 09. Since then its pretty much been breakeven. Biggest draw down was month of Feb with 7 losses in a row. Without those losses, I would be in the black. As it is im sitting on 95% of original capital. This seems in line with Seanās figures as Feb skewed the proportion of losses quite significantly. It certainly requires a lot of patience to trade but its also quite easy to get into the rhythm and to not care about losses or reversals to BE.
Hi Rei,
Iām currently up to page 97 of this thread. Iāve been trading this system in conjunction with bollinger bands for the last few weeks and for me its been profit every week. Iāll start posting more once Iāve finished all 175 pages.
I cant believe that Iāve read all 175 pages, my head hurts.
After reading Iād firstly like to say thanks to phil838,s050399b and rei. There is a lot of input from you guys.
Secondly Iād like to suggest a couple of things (Iāll also try and edit the ea code to reflect these suggestions)
A) as mentioned before about using the first 4x1 hour candles regardless of time frame. At the end of the day the market opens when it opens, not because its X GMT time.
B) incorperating the ranges within BB, using this we may find that the winning trades are always in the same direction or ??? I will experiment and let you know.
Hey, been reading through this thread recently, and this looks like a very interesting system. There are systems out there with a higher profitability per year it seems, but considering how using this system barely takes up any time at all the hourly wage you get from this system seems remarkable.
Iām a bit curious as to why itās been less profitable as of late, though? Any suggestions? Iāve noticed that a lot of people have remarked that conditions in the forex market have been choppy and unpredictable lately. Iāve been swing trading in the stock market lately, so I canāt really say if this is true or not for forex.
phil838; Your contribution is greatly appreciated, I hope that it will continue in the future!
I just wanted to pop in real quick and say that the Sunday Breakout is officially dead in the current market conditions! I suggest that you DO NOT trade it right now.
I made a ton of money off this in 2008 and 2009 (almost a 30% return in '09), and the backtesting says itās worked for years before that, but for some reason itās just not working any longer.
Mechanical systems are like thatā¦ They only work in certain market conditions. It doesnāt mean the system was a failureā¦ Far from it! Itās just the natural life cycle of the 100% mechanical system.
I feel kinda bad that Alewater read all 175 pages of a thread thatās not producing right now, so Iām going to put a notice at the top of the first post, just so all the newbies donāt waste too much time reading the whole thread.
When the system starts working again Iāll remove it.
Hi phil, it has been a longgg time since I was here almost daily, I have almost forgotten mypasswordā¦I remember the good days of MT4ing this strategy, and comparing between ODL and IBFX blah blahā¦and going almost blind pressing F11ā¦
But I want to say [B]BRAVO[/B] for putting this post up and warning newbies. The strategy isnāt doing well (but only the creator can say that, not me!) actually since Feb 10 for most crosses.
Of the 9 crosses I monitor, 8 give scary negative numbers, I donāt want to post. But only Eur/GBP, is an amazing 29% return annualised 2010 (on 2% per week/ 1% per buy, 1% sell).
Iām pretty disappointed, as this yearās results of about 5 loss months out of 6 since Feb 10, is unprecedented in my backtesting since 2005ā¦
If there is any consolation, there has been some decent profits for GU in the past 3 weeks, though still in red for the year.
But any newbies will do well to follow Philās advice in his last post.
Would love you to elaborate a bit more. Would be really helpful to know how to trade this successfuly at the moment after mentions that it is not working.
Iām still following this system. It isnāt exactly not working, but it hasnāt performed that well either. It is currently sitting on breakeven for this year given the last two weekās of profitable trades. Im going to stick with it and wait for the next move up which hopefully wont be much longer. Iāll continue to monitor and post updates if anything changes.
Sam doesnāt follow the rules so he isnāt actually trading this system.
Hello,
I canāt believe such a simple and robust system can die once for good. There must be a way around it, letās find out what it is guys! I already have some ideas.
Well, there are 3 fields of research for improvement. Here are the first 2:
1- Trade with the trend: only take trades that break out to the overall weekly trend, and dismiss those that donāt;
2- Let the winning trades run and just trail the stop loss until it is hit and get you out of the trade.
Backtesters to your engines.
Thanks !