I believe Trueman took the trade. Despite what my analysis said, I probably would have taken it too (in a demo account only though) since it hit a zone, very tempting. I think Trueman made some decent pips from that so it’ll be interesting to see how similar situations play out.
Thank you for the great TF and TP info!
For the TFs it seems you go back and forth, sometimes starting with H4, sometimes starting with D1 and then you work your way to the best decision?
I haven’t had enough practice to determine what works for me yet but I think I like starting with a larger time frame, plotting the major supply and demand areas, trend line and support resistance lines. I then move down to a lower time frame, adjust the S&R a bit as seems fit and then seeing where the smaller TF supply/demand zones fall and making a more “granular” decision that way.
Now that I think about it, I think my method is actually pretty close to what you do.
I haven’t traded/tested (I’m using demo) anything based off of my style yet so I’ll see how I develop on that aspect.
I appreciate your help 
I looked at NZD CAD today. On the daily, I drew my supply and demand zones like yours which is great
My trend line was a bit more aggressive, I used only the last two peaks (the last two supply areas in this case). With that trend line, it looks like we are getting close to the end of the downtrend. Currently price is at the convergence of my trend line and S&R line.
I almost don’t want to include my charts because they look messy 
Daily
H4
txs
I entered late due to my schedule but NZD USD bounced off of the demand zone so I went long. I originally set my TP and SL at 30 pips because I chickened out even though I’m demo trading haha. Price went up so I moved my SL above BE and I went for it and moved my TP to 100 pips to see what happens.
100 pips above BE is still below the S&R line so even if price bounces back I should be able to take all 100. Price has hit that S&R line a few times and it looks like the trend is in an uptrend so chances are it will at least hit the S&R line if not break through it.
We’ll see This is my first S&D trade!
txs
I did this analysis a couple days ago on my second day learning S&D so don’t go by my markings completely and you may want to double check this one but for EUR USD, we are currently in a demand zone that was created in Sept 2003 (look at the M1 TF).
You may want to disregard my 2nd trend line as it may be too aggressive. But per some S&D rules I’ve come across, when you have 3+ DBD or 3+ RBR patterns consecutively you can draw a more aggressive trend line (I believe this is Maryo/Alfonso Moreno’s technique) which is why I did that. Per that trend line we may have just broken a downtrend.
On the W1, there is a lot of activity that happened during this weekly area but since supply took out the previous demands in this area, I think we can count the second last demand zone on the chart as fresh (the one before it seems like a retest of a previous weekly demand zone and was not absorbed by supply, the last demand-ish zone on the chart seems like a retest of the second last demand zone). The second last demand zone may be a weak one though since the momentum up was short.
On the D1, price almost touched a new daily demand zone but missed and went up.
H4 says similar things.
The two options I see are:
-
Price will rise and hit the S&R line and possibly exceed it, or
-
Price will decline, aim for the demand zone again and then rise to hit the S&R line and possibly exceed
Now that I think about it, price broke the 2003 demand zone - prices could follow a 3rd option at this point:
- Price will decline and break past the current demand zone and fall into the next demand zone below.
I think option 3 is less likely since we just broke the downtrend per the aggressive trend line. However, if we go by the less aggressive trend line, we are still in a downtrend so we’ll have to see.
Not sure what trade I’m planning for this. Since I’m in a demo I may go long now and have it hit my stop loss if price drops instead of rises. If it does drop, I’ll try going long once price hits demand and re-exits the zone or just sit out on the second trade if price breaks through the demand zones.
Let me know if my thinking is off in any way. I don’t think we need to go through so many TFs but it is cool that we are finally hitting the demand zone created in 2003! Had we not looked at the monthly we wouldn’t have realized what an interesting position we’re in at this time.
txs
Overnight price went down to my above-BE SL, stopped me out at 5.6 pips. Then price went back up and is now only 23 pips below what was my 100 pip TP. Bummer that I got stopped out but its awesome that its so close to my 100 pip TP.
My takeaway lesson here is to enter my trade and not be so quick to move my SL above BE. In the future I think I will move my SL to just above BE when I have gained ~40 pips.
oh thx for this big input txs …
hope we can find a good way to make this trading style very accurate together
and nice to see that other people have instant succes with trying it
and i must say i have the same problem with keeping positions open…moving sl to break even too fast
something we have to improve…
the eur usd trade iam waiting …price did not reached the entry zone …
if iam not “absolutly” sure about the trade i stay out.and in this case there are so many possibilitys leading me to stay out of the trade…just my opinion
i just trade this style since 01.2016 i think… ( 2012 was first time i came in touch with the whole trading thing)
so iam also at the begining of this journey with s&d…
greetz trueman
usd jpy 4 h one entry a little to early…then i entered againa little higher
at moment one position 20 pips other position 50 pips profit…
so far so good…hope i can manage that usd cad trade very well…not sure if it can go down the way…
Thanks, Trueman! I had the help of this thread and all of your charts! You have gotten some very quick successes as well. And big ones!
I agree, the BE/SL is a challenge. I also find waiting for price to hit the zones and getting in on the trade the moment it leaves a zone a bit challenging But we’ll get it for sure!
I didn’t trade EUR USD either and agree that in a live trading situation it is much better to stay out. Had I traded, I would have chosen to go long. The cool thing is, price went up and is right below the S&R line! Not sure if it will break through the line but I’m happy with how my prediction turned out.
I got into the NZD CAD trade but waaaay too late. When I got in, price had already left the demand zone far behind. I thought I would try it anyways to see what happens. I was up 20+ pips today but am currently -3.4 pips. But I am staying strong and keeping my BE as is and also holding to ~100 pips TP (I say “approximately” 100 TP because I got in at a high price so 100 pips would take me to above the S&R line and I’d like to close the trade just below the S&R line).
Price is creating newer demand zones so I think price will keep going up. Hopefully
txs
How far do you usually set your SL? If you are entering when price is in the zone or just exiting, maybe set it to about 25 pips from the distal line? I’ve heard Maryo/Alfonso Moreno say he does this. He varies it a little depending on the trade, zone size and TF but maybe something to consider if you are getting stopped out often but price goes in the direction you predict.
Had I not moved my BE, NZD USD would have hit my 100 TP
I need to trust the system more. If I trusted it fully, I wouldn’t be so quick to adjust my SL. That’s the key. With more practice, time and trades going in the direction I expect I will build the trust I need to catch those pips!
Nice job on those pips! USD CAD looks tricky to me right now. I had trouble with the demand zones on this chart. The trend looks down and like it will continue down. I’m wondering if price will bounce out of the current demand zone it is in and hit the trend line first and then continue down or if price will absorb the demand and just keep going south without going up to touch the trend line first. There are several demand zones close together from what I see which I think indicates that price will keep going down to absorb them? Not sure if that’s what others see.
@Trueman and @r2theb2thec (and anyone else of course) - How do you select which currencies to analyze? Each chart takes time to go through (or maybe that’s just because I’m a beginner?). I was wondering if you have a method to screen which charts to analyze before you start going deeper and marking off your demand and supply zones?
According to me Supply And Demand work best for currencies which are traded in a free market where there are a lot of buyers and also equal number of sellers at any point in the market. Because what Supply and Demand is essentially means is that when a price reaches a particular level most of the people want to SELL because they feel the price can’t go any higher and when they SELL the price of the currency drastically starts falling. And as the price is falling other people see this drop and sell of what they owned thereby driving the price even lower.
But at the same time there are Buyers in the market who start entering because they see this as the opportunity and therefore start BUYING once the price is low enough thereby creating a Demand zone.
So, to answer your question, I only trade the pairs with the most volume, most number of BUYERS and SELLERS.
Mainly trading USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF and all of their combinations which gives me 28 currency pairs. I looks at all these pairs equally!
Good point Guga! I agree, Run your profits as much as you can!
I tried doing that for a while and this is how I did,
I opened 3 trades when the price was in the zone.
My TP 1 = 75pips, TP2 = 100pips to 150 pips and TP 3 = trailing SL once price hits TP2
While doing that I made some good profits when the trade went way beyond 100pips but when the trade went against me I lost three trades at once. In this case at sometimes I would end up risking more than 3-5% of my account which was something I didn’t wanna do.
Moreover for a trade to run more than 150 pips would take sometimes more than a week for some pairs, which I wasn’t comfortable doing because I didn’t have the patience to do so when I was trying this (learning to be patient every day)
After I limited my profits to 100-150 pips, I have started to see my account grow significantly! and that is the way I like it.
But surely, a more experienced trader maybe be able to help me make more profits but I don’t think it is a MISTAKE! At the end of the day you can’t catch them all! You take how much you need!
Haha! I have totally been there when I was on Demo too!!! I would sweat so bad everytime I was in a trade! It was crazy, I couldn’t focus on anything else but the trade all day!!! Hated/Loved it! But after 2-3 months I learned to be patient and it helped me a lot. Only look at the trade once or twice while at work but that was it! I wouldn’t open or close any trades while I am at work! Being nervous is a good thing. Wait until you start trading Real money! haha