On my smaller side account yes, I’m more aggressive with that one. It’s small…nothing to celebrate, I just love to see things play out like that. Every noob going short with the “trend” just got run over and we knew it was coming.
For the record, Danny already showed the 1hr accumulation. Since his post, there was a fake breakout below and it moved right back into range making it even better probability…as we know.
I’m not sure how co catch that breakout. We had a resistance from which price bounced twice to the pip, .50fib of the days high-to-low. Plus I take Pete’s advice and wait for the confirmation candle to close, which in in this case… ugh, let’s not even talk about it. :eek:
Actually the best NS I’ve seen all day came much earlier. Not sure if it’s entirely valid.
edit: haha, Pete beat me by a minute. So anyways, are there any problems with taking the NS at 11:35 that you’ve marked?
Another NS with another chance to get in… (missed by me again)… Now maybe good place to take profit at 1.3535
11:35? I have the NS at 12 gmt, with confirmation at 12:10. Anyway, we are talking about the NS after the fake break I believe. The second NS shown in my chart.
Yes, that is valid. Nothing but strength in the background. The only bit of extra risk I can see is that the 1hr hadn’t confirmed the fake break yet by closing back into the range on the next 1hr candle.
When you guys get more comfortable you get to the point where…sure you are robotic as far as waiting for and taking good setups, BUT the better you read the SM, the more you start to know your probabilities. From there you can decide how aggressive you want to be. This just takes a lot of screen time applying the principles I teach. There are also other entries besides ND/NS that I’ll talk about soon, some have been covered in the old thread, and maybe you can figure them out anyway. The ND/NS are most safe and need to most patience, so it is a good place to start.
The reason I didn’t enter earlier was beacause I didn’t feel that the market was ready to move up just yet, I wanted price to break out of it’s range for a more safer setup. But now It skyrocketed on me instead and yet another day without a trade! :35:
And for those who wonder why I want price to break out of it’s range before I look for an entry is because when price do break out of it’s range I know most certainly that the market is ready to move, then I just need that tiny little NS and I’m ready to jump in!
I don’t do this everytime though just when I feel it would be safer to do so.
Hi guys,
I read a book this weekend, investing with volume analyse, great book about volume analyse. The guy tells about the history of fundamental and technical analyse and it’s importance and how it came that now most traders use fundamental over technical. He developed indicators based on weighted volume etc. called the VPCI indicator, volume price contradiction/contradiction index. It looks like a great indi as a confirmation because this indi is supposed to not lag because it uses volume that precedes the price. You all know the importance of volume and we all know that indicators lag, but with these indicators based on volume and he proved in his book that it is a great addition to the technical analyse and I think it would help us a lot in our VSA.
I looked all over the net to find it but I didn’t unless you buy charting solutions like esignal etc. I have found a summery of his indicator online that explains the formula and how you can program it but didn’t found any for MT4. I have the book in pdf and also the summery for you guys to take a look to see what I talk about.
Pete, do you have any experience with the vpci? or another indi of Buff?
I think it would help me a lot accelerate my learning curve.
If any body knows where to find his volume indicators or knows somebody who can make one please let me know.
http://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/2007DowAward.pdf This is the link for the summery and if you want the pdf of the book tell me how to attach a file or send me a request.
Thanks in advance guys…
I’ve had less trades recently myself, although I tend to look at it in terms of seasons and I’m happy with my amount of trades and return this fall…about at 75 percent win ratio on my main account, trading 3-4 days a week, having trades more days than not. (This is trading the Euro during a “crisis” mind you).
The question to ask ourselves is “How picky can I get with entries and still have enough?”
This is an ever changing situation, the market doesn’t behave the same way all the time. If I have a week with very few trades I usually decide to get more aggressive on entry but with less risk. This way I’m getting more trades and can catch those moves, adapting…but if it goes bad it’s less risk than the conservative trades…which eventually do return to a normal frequency.
Hi all
I have just started following this thread and I am really interested, however to start with do you use the standard volume indicator with mbt4 or is it a different indicator?
Thanks
Yes SagizC, I got it, I the whole idea I had of NS and ND was not right, it wasn’t totally left field, but it makes much more sense now.
Yes newbie’s I’ll re-emphasise what SagicZ has said above, look at those videos over and over again, it’s a lot to take in, Pete does a very good job of them, excellent in fact, but it takes watching them over and over again to get the most out of them, like I said earlier I’ve watched the NS/ND video many times, bit it also took a few postings and SagicZ’s help to make it absolutely crystal (I think it is) and I am a very experienced trader, heck I even came up with a killer VSA strategy from a general understanding. It’s Ok just waiting for setups and just following them and using experience, but to learn to ‘READ’ the market properly and fully is another class above.
So newbie’s don’t be afraid to get involved in the discussion, make mistakes, try, ask questions, be honest, I’m sure I’m not the only one that didn’t quite get it, or just assumed a different version, onwards and upwards everyone.
I haven’t seen this but I have thought about an indicator like this. When you hear me say Volume increased but the trend didn’t continue, because orders against the trend are coming in…it’s that price volume relationship that is easy to spot as contradictory.
You know me…I have this Zen crap about naked charts lol. Anything else on my main chart is not worth looking at for an entire session to affect my judgement, but I am always open to experimenting…and have other things on side charts. As long as it doesn’t derail the thread, let’s see what it has to offer. I only skimmed though it so far…will check it out.
Now this I can help with!
It’s the standard volume indicator essentially, when you see a multi coloured one, it’s one I wrote just to highlight the different sessions and a few little bells and whistles, it’s to some people’s taste and not with others, you don’t need it to trade this strategy, if you do, it’s free to download from my site.
However, be careful with which broker you use MT4 for volumes though, it can vary, I wouldn’t recommend Oanda, I think the consensus here is generally IBFX, so I would recommend it if only so your chart will be the same.
Purplepatch, I’m glad I could help a little bit with understanding of NDs and NSs. I thought I knew all about them but the video taught me more and it is actually way better. Now I can spot many bars which I used to call NDs or NSs but now I see that they are left unconfirmed (because price didn’t react to them correctly) and I can stay out of MANY losing trades.
Ameese, you can definitely use the regular MT4 volume indicator. Nothing fancy is needed. Make sure the volume is represented by BARS not by some spaghetti lines :). I personally use IBFX with a volume indicator from Purplepatch. The colors are useful on H1, the prediction everywhere. But I think one can trade with the regular volume as well.
Ok, let’s keep this ND/NS thing clear, now going by this definition of a Doji - Doji - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, so if the NS/ND is a Doji from what fabulono1 says, the Doji though, must be a neutral Dohi, however I don’t think if it is technically so, you wouldn’t want to trade it?
When markets are down and we see demand, that’s when we WANT to buy. Nothing in this post is about the setup that was forming according to this thread…surprising. Sorry, I’m going to block you again, I warned you. Don’t take it personally. I want a clean thread that will make for good reading in the future. Maybe you should start a thread or find an appropriate one, if you have something to offer. Thanks.
They obviously just needed some lemmings to soak up demand! 
Can you share what makes much more sense now?
Yes, the candle has a long wick, but I don’t see anything wrong with that. It seems to me like we should give the lowVol more significance than the long wick. Yes, it also looks like a test, but why is that a bad thing? Price went down and without effort went back up, which means that not much supply is working against demand in that candle, whereas in the previous candles much more supply was active.
As far as pins are concerned, I thought that the important thing is that in a NS the lower pin is ideally longer than the upper pin.
But what I took from Pete’s NS/ND video is that the most important thing to look for is the location of NS/ND. For example if background is bullish (like in the trade today) we need to recognize/define the area which supply absolutely has to protect unless it has given up. This I think is the reson why the safest NS is when it appears beyond the range/trendline/fib (today it was a horizontal range). When we are in accumulation, it’s not so easy to assess when supply has become inactive and so the safest way is to enter when it absolutely has to show up but to our delight doesn’t. Whereas in markup+pullback trades it’s much easier, because we know that extraordinary effort (stopping volume) is required to stop the markup and if we see a NS, then it’s a safe phase confirmation.
Honest answer - sorry I don’t know what! I mean that in the way that some stuff could well have been making more sense to you than it was to me before, so you probably aren’t missing anything.
Ideally yes, a NS should have more pin on the bottom than the top, but it’s not a requirement. A Large pin on top is a sign of supply, so yeah…makes sense that you wouldn’t want that.
Good post! That last paragraph…well said. You guys are starting to talk like professionals. I see many are on the brink of having things click…or have just had. From there you will develop the skills/experience to take it to whatever level you are capable of. I’m not here to teach trading as much as I am to have people [I]understand the market[/I]. How I profit from that knowledge is also shown however lol.
Hey Pete, what do you mean by “Where we were supposed to see supply”.
I remembered not understanding this fully after reading recent Hummels post.
Why should we be seeing a supply over there?