Meanwhile, back on the VSA front ā¦
Things have been fairly quiet lately as the markets have been all over the show. It has been mentioned, I think by Luiz, the markets (AU and EU specifically) have been falling and then stalling on what is normally stopping volume, however, the reaction (Iām talking about 1hr timeframe) has almost always been bearish and it has fallen further. I am only new in the scheme of things with VSA, which means I did not see the GFC while studying Forex, but in my time it has been unheard of. Pete has mentioned similar with the onset of the GFC.
Being quiet does not mean losing money though. It means we have to be extremely disciplined and patient. The undisciplined VSA trader will be making trades fit and losing money. The disciplined one may be up to just a few trades a week. Rememer, big rule, trade with the trend, so wait maybe for the āapparent stopping volumeā, retrace then enter on the resumption of the downtrend, confirmed by a ND candle.
Remember, VSA is following the movements of Smart Money, and attaching ourselves to them like sucker fish. JP Morgan lost $2 Billion in a two month period. They are part of SM, so if they lose, it also sends strange signals to us via the volume etc. I personally believe this will be the start of a very long and protracted āhard timeā with forex trading. The $2Billion loss is only the tip of the iceberg that we are now only starting to see. This is realised losses, but the exposure of the SM (Banking world) can be catastrophic to the worlds economy.
Just think about this for exposure
JPMorgan Chase - $70.1 Trillion exposure
Citibank - $52.1 Trillion exposure
Bank of America - $50.1 Trillion exposure
Goldman Sachs - $44.2 Trillion exposure
USAās top 4 banks have $216.5 Trillion in derivatives exposure ($2 Billion looks small now)
This exposure is 3 times the worlds total economy.
With this all in mind, we are in for a shaky ride, so I am only going to be trading the āperfectā setups with VSA. I donāt see any recoveries on the horizon.
Anyway, sorry about the rant, it has moved away from VSA as such, but provides what I believe is a background to where the economies are heading and the trouble that lies ahead. It also shows that Smart Money does not always get it right either,a nd that does impact us as well.