Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

mmmahdi, thanks for that article. Basically what we see is more [I]dynamics[/I] with actual traded volume compared to ticks… meaning more extreme highs and lows. But, the relative increases/decreases are the same as well as the extreme high volume points.

Relative to previous range, and extremely high volume…those 2 things are the basis for VSA signals. Debate over (again lol)

I see your reasons for G/U long…I caught a few there too. Looking forward to your posts.

EU appears to be setting up a short this morning (EST) around the 1.33 level. Prefer EU setup over GU at this point.

It does not always play out that fast & well lol.

Anyway possible long setup now around 1.3260 on EU. I prefer buying EU over GU at this point if a signal presents itself. Looking at the charts it looks like underlying buying has occurred in EU over past couple of days.

The lack of clear SM activity finally got on my nerves today lol. Yes I’ve taken a few losses lately, risk in check of course. I’ll be waiting for better conditions to return…they always do. Meanwhile, I’m going to forget about the charts and enjoy my time, and come back when the charts say so. (@#$%!@^#) :slight_smile:

AUDUSD setting up a long with push & test @ 11:30 AM EST time. Not a stellar setup but worthy of half a position in accordance with proper risk-management.

Hi guys, thanks for all the info. (especially Pete thank you for sharing all “the good stuff”). Ive been watching this thread (and the one before ) and I’ve been watching Pete’s videos for a while now and i think im starting to get an overall idea. However the E/U has been acting up lately and I’m not really sure what phase we are in. So my guess is that we are in reaccumulation because we have high volume at the bottom and low volume at the top. Today (it was a US holiday) and the price has been hovering btw the 50 - 61.8 lines. And from what i understand this is an uncertain area because price can go either way.

OK so my question is this:

  1. If it breaks the 50 fib line (and closes above- break thru) followed by a NS then it is safe to assume it will go towards the next fib line (38.2, possibly 23.6) ?

  2. If it breaks the 61.8 line (closes below) followed by a ND then it can fall all the way to the previous support around 1.3255 (100 fib line)?

So in a situation like this would i enter a position either long or short based on 1 and 2 or would i only take the long and forget about this setup if it goes below the 61.8?

Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong :slight_smile:

Thanks a lot

Micky



The pics are not very clear so i uploaded them here:
Imageshack - eu1g.jpg
Imageshack - eu2tv.jpg


I don’t know if trading by Fib’s alone is safe. I would have thought that given the fact that SM was not in the game today, and hasn’t been for a few days, steer well clear and wait for clearer VSA confirmation of a set-up. Well this the conclusion I have come to anyway, lol

If I’m not mistaken. I think we have a Bearish Pennant formed over the last 2 days of trading. Will be interesting to see.

I am also an newbie but feel it is time to introduce myself to the thread, Babypips, the world of VSA and of course to Pete (good afternoon Sir). It was only in September last year that I learnt that pip’s didn’t just live in the core of an apple so as you can guess I have been on a very, very steep learning curve. I have ‘ping ponged’ around the many forums and systems that exist. I don’t mind studying and learning but what I didn’t want to do was to invest my time learning something that only gave half the picture of FOREX.

VSA and Price Action to me seem to go together hand in hand and I really do feel that my effort and time will not be in vain. Sir Fader!! (Pete) You have put an lot of effort into explaining this side of FOREX I am sure that I am one of many who have watched your videos and studied the threads but have remained anonymous, until now that is.

I just wanted to say thanks and remind you that every video, chart and explanatory post is greatly appreciated. I am aware that your threads wouldn’t last long if it wasn’t for contributions made by others and of course my thanks also goes out to them.

Now show me them apples !!! I mean, Pip’s !!

:64:

Hi, this is the first VSA post for me. Just looking for confirmation that my observations are correct ?

Thanks,


Markets are quiet, presumably waiting on Draghi and King’s speeches.

VSA situation is difficult to assess though their are signs of a general risk-on scenario, with EU & GU slated to go up. Between the two EU again appears to be the stronger pair.

However a safer trade might be Long EG around the 0.8390 level as a more meaningful S/L can be placed with lower risk, and a lower chance of a possible whipsaw.

Again, currently market is quiet with no HPS (High Probability Setup) but I believe this should change around the 10:00-11:00 AM EST TF.

Another possible setup is long Loonie, with AUDCAD looking decent. Meaning shorting AC of course, :slight_smile:

Hey guys, I’ll have to catch up on your posts asap.

(video still processing, give it a few mins…)


Just a test of whether I can upload pic’s yet.

Anyway EU at confluence level of 1.3265, VSA situation still developing into a possible good setup.


Another decent setup unfolding currently is long AU. Notice that I did not mark the highest volume bar, but the high bar right after. The reason is I found that bar more significant for several reasons; it is a rejection candle, much smaller range with a result of price going up.

Other than that there is confluence at this price level with the possibility of placing an acceptable SL.

As a side note I do use broader market tactics (i.e. looking at E-mini, equities, bonds for long term positions, etc.) to add confluence to some of my entry levels. However I will not mention methods that do not pertain to VSA out of respect for Pete’s thread.

E/U 1hr stopping volume, and now 5 min push thru AR, NS. A bit late in the day but it should continue up off this pattern, and it’s technically a proper conservative entry. The only issue is that it’s already up against the fib zone from the swing high low…a symptom of the sloppiness we’ve been seeing I think.

This recent activity could be a general shakeout of weak long positions, and SM buying low in anticipation of the Euro moving higher. We went into this year with EVERYONE bullish on the Euro…can’t have that. :wink:

Thanks Pete, that PDF you recommended is exactly what I’ve been looking for!

The NZDUSD chart shows a possible setup unfolding. On the 5 Min chart you can see volume coming in resulting in mini rallies during the downtrend; this ends off with a possible the highest volume of the day, which appears to be stopping volume.

Furthermore looking to the left of the chart one can see the support level on high volume set during LO. This is an area of confluence, in addition to being close to a big-figure.


On the 1 Hr chart, we see what can be classified as a possible shakeout, where SM utilized news to “shakeout” weak long holders.


Another setup worthy of mentioning is the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD twin. This setup appears to be clearer though I have a bias towards NZDUSD at this point.

Daily chart showing 50% fib retracement.


Hourly chart showing stopping volume at a pre-determined support level.


5 Min chart showing high volume bar & the AR.



The red box shows low volume as price re-tests the rejection area on NZDUSD; this is a sign of setup failure. Price should not re-enter this area if setup is valid or if it does re-enter this area, we expect to see high volume again with rejection. A setup where the rejection area is re-visited on low volume is highly suspect.