Some Asia scalping today, e/u long a/j short. Not exactly text book but with no trades this week yet, I was on the hunt for something…anything that didn’t break my rules lol.
I hear ya. I watched the charts from 8-11AM local time and seeing the lackluster volume + price action, I decided nothing worthwhile will setup today. So I went snowboarding instead of working lol.
So it appears GU made it to the bottom of last years’ summer consolidation price level. It also happens that this area is a long time support level stretching back to 2010. See weekly chart below.
The most likely reaction here is a period of range bound price behavior, possibly with random sharp moves that fizzle out. If the support level appears to be respected again with strong signs of accumulation, this could be a good long time trade to get into.
And then of course, nothing can be predicted and it might go down right through that level. So beware 
So many reasons for this to bounce, but will it? We’ll see if it stops, and what Volume says.
The reasons are: 61.8 fib, previous support/head and shoulders neck line, 50 EMA, lower trend lines, 5 waves down. LOL. Almost to obvious. :33:
Keep in mind, the drop is due to positive talk from the FOMC about the USD, so some trickery is likely. I’ll see where it is by Aisa open and take it from there.
Hi, Pete. I’m on page 75 of the original 1500 pips thread. Whew. Do i need to get through each page prior to coming over to here?
Cheers.
PS. My intention is to combine your volume techniques with Wolfe Waves and several more “standard” advanced patterns. One is the Shark Pattern. It’s like a happy shark.
Haha, no. I was still working my way to the strategy I trade now in the first half of that thread. Wouldn’t hurt to read the second half. The 30 or so videos and reading my posts in this thread might be the best place to start actually.
A/U moving up on news, I was in off the setup earlier today and now banking. 
I did trim down my risk while waiting. Had some draw down but left room on my stop for the fake break. I’m sure that kicked out many traders for loss. I don’t fall for that trick lol.
A nice two trading weeks. Here’s my re-quote of the day: sound clip
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/petefader/488440
(This reflects the trades on my live account but not size and risk %.)
Cool, I only use a couple simple pattens. It will be interesting to see. The info that VSA gives compliments anything.
Impressive to say the least. I excel at finding VSA set-ups right after the fact but for some reason they usually have a ninja-like quality about them when they are forming in real time. They sneak right by me on the far right edge of the screen before I can jump in :17:
It’s understandable at first. Some things are counter intuitive, but trading on intuition makes for a very giving trader lol.
Price shooting up for example may make you think…ah I missed that move and it’s probably going to keep going up. But, maybe it’s going to be a buy climax into a fib area…or a fake breakout. It takes some confidence to say price “Great, price is shooting up, that’s the way I want to start off this short setup”…and really believe it.
Also the ND/NS can sneak by if you’re not watching closely when the right time is there.
Hey Pete,
I took a look at your myfxbook; I think if it does not interfere with your trading psyche, it’s a great idea.
Having said that, what time zone is the account set at? It does not appear to be GMT, as some of the trades indicate a time & price that does not agree with GMT time and price. I am guessing an issue with time myfxbook uses vs. GoMarkets.
On a side note, the bubbles on the side of each trade do work now.
Being a GoMarkets account, the times would be GMT +2
My own belief is that the myfxbook wont be an interferrence to his trading except for the added extra of making a trade on that demo account as well as his real account.
Knowing Petefader for some time, I don’t think that having the account will affect him. He has simply put it out there. he has not made any assumptions or claims. It is just there for interested people to see.
Another advantage is that he does not have an inflated ego and is very well grounded. I see that this can be nothing but good and useful for all of us
OK, so I’m a little bit new, and so feel a bit interloperish, but here goes with my first ever volume analysis. I’m not going to get all technical (mainly coz I can’t) but I did mention previously that my intent is to combine VSA basics (as I see them on this thread) with Wolfe Waves and advanced fib patterns. I’m on a group elsewhere focussing on various methods (we use RSI in a different way to about 99.5% of everything you’ll ever read about it. sorry if having an indicator on there burns anyone’s eyes…) so this analysis was done for those guys, as a sort of “hey, VSA is out there” kinda thing. Very positive response, as you would anticipate.
I have seen 5 wave moves posted by Pete, so I figured the Wolfe (Bat, Shark, Butterfly, etc) would tie in with the thinking here, to a degree. The Wolfe is a good 5 wave starter, though. The target of the Wolfe wave, from the 5, or 5" point is the intersection of price with the 1-4 line, so you can imagine the benefit of a good entry at the current level. One would watch for weakness at the 1-3-5 line and the 2-4 line, but on the larger TF, like 1hr, for example. A pause there would be normal.
The thing concerning me, here, is that the 15min and hourly show that there was a period of distribution from the NY open on the 21st, which seems to switch to accumulation towards the end of the session and still in accum, until now. I have shown the periods I see as each as green and red boxes on the charts. Their position is only important regarding time, not price level - I just popped them in empty space. It is this switchover that I’d mainly like some advice on.
The green line on the 5min RSI shows a POSITIVE divergence (very importantly, this is neither a bearish nor bullish divergence, and has much more power an reliability) but that’s not VSA related. It adds strength to the bullish analysis. On the 5min I also see we are approaching a resistance level, so I think I should be looking for a low volume up bar closing above the resistance to suggest higher prices? It would not surprise me to see this gap up on the open.
Would the candle I have highlighted on the 5min be considered a NS? It’s spread is a bit large, perhaps? Should I be looking for a high volume pin bar test of supply?
I know, newbie questions… Any questions for me, please ask away.
I would have said not yet but getting there. Volume is lower than the previous 2 candles but not confirmed as there is yet to be a candle that closes above the high of the potential NS. You would wait for the current candle to close as that looks like it will be the one to close above the high and be your confirmation for entry.
Watch Pete’s vid
Ooops. Sorry, that chart is misleading, as despite what it says in the top corner, that candle has closed - it was the final candle of the day, on Friday.
So, I guess that makes it a valid, confirmed entry signal?
Yes, provided it closed above the high of the NS candle.
Actually, I have just looked at the background. You initial questions was whether it was a NS candle, then given what I have said then yes, it is. It’s fits the criteria.
As to whether it is a valid entry, then I wouldn’t take it myself as it appears to be pretty close to a 61.8/50 fib zone (I think as the fib isn’t drawn). In this case I would be waiting for a bounce off the fib zone and then look for a ND.
To be honest I am only commenting on the validity of it being a NS candle, not really on the trade itself.
Remember, you don’t trade on NS/ND signals alone.
Yep, don’t use NS/ND alone. Got that. This entry would be based on background of the area currently being an accumulation phase, and the valid Wolfe entry on the higher time frame, my effort being directed at using VSA for a valid entry into a much larger pattern. I know lore says that shouldn’t be done, but, Hell, I’m a maverick, like Pete (and the forbidden bottom picking).