You also need to be aware of any support/resistance/fib areas that may make the trade too high a risk compared to expected return. You need to see the background info and read what it is telling you as well. Are we in markup/markdown/accumulation/distribution. What phase might we be in on the higher timeframe. The market is fractal and that may also give some good information on what we may expect and put the math of probabilities further on our side.
Obviously, we all should realise there are no absolutes, but we need to get as many confluences as possible to maximise our probability of a positive trade
Of course. Iām pretty good with the advanced patterns, and Risk/reward. The Wolfe gives a 20:1 RR ratio with an entry from here. Not bad, huh?
Itās for another thread in another time and space, but the 886 retrace of a move can be an excellent entry opportunity, too. The 618 holds not too much fear for me - although 5mins is a new TF for me, so open minded, there.
Anybody take part in the Euro bear move? From a VSA POV, the signs were there that we will have a bearish Euro scenario, on all the crosses. Most signals materialized early NY session. I took a trade on EU though EJ would have been more lucrative.
I am a little busy now, however if anyone would like, I can post later on to share analysis leading up to the trade and the decision making process.
I was long EURUSD based on my analysis of yesterday. Iām new to VSA, but it got me out at around 13,300. Nice. Iām impressed, and currently watching to re-enter long. I should have stopped and reversed but like I say, new to it.
The blue line shows the high volume, high spread (climax??) bar, the red line shows a no demand, followed by a second no demand, followed by a down confirmation.
Extra confidence then came after seeing the supply come in with the pin bar at the ultra high volume.
Just had a look on my phone, E/U had a pretty aggressive down move niceā¦ I was expecting to see the some short trades happening but up until I went to bed it was all up last night after London open I was getting lots of No Supply action so I had a couple of buy trades on E/U and A/U before 10pm Australia EST (Which is 11am London time).
Hi All,
Iāve been a lurker around here for some time and some of the concepts are finally starting to make senseā¦I think. Thatās why Iām posting here. I have a demo account and have lost almost exactly half through this morning. Today I took my first āVSA tradesā and both were successful! Must know what Iām doing, right? Not really though. Thatās why Iām here. Iām looking for all constructive criticism you guys can give because I truly believe that for me, this type of trading just makes sense and once I understand it more thoroughly, Iāll enjoy it even more.
Iām going to use a risk management strategy I picked up from another trader where he risks 3% per trade, closes a third, then another third, and lets the last third run, followed by moving the fibs at every new low until price crosses back over the 61 fib. I donāt know if Iāll use that for the exit but I do believe it makes sense to let part of the trade run for a chance at outsized gains. (NOTE: I came to this revelation after making these trades this morning, haha)
Here are my charts for two trades this morning: eurusd short and usdchf long:
On this chart, I saw the down bar hit the 61 fib and was unable to penetrate on ok volume, with no follow through. In fact the next bar has more volume and closes at the high of the previous bar. After the next bar penetrated the high of the no-follow through bar, I switched to the 5m.
After seeing the push through on the highest volume of the day (which I believe would have been a valid entry), I saw the no supply at the down arrow and entered there with a stop below the previous lowest low.
Made 33 pips on 2/3 position and 70 pips on last 1/3 for eurusd.
Made 28 pips on 2/3 position and 31 pips on last 1/3 for usdchf.
I split these closing entries up for no apparent reason. It doesnāt help that closed these from my mobile phone. Any critiques would be greatly appreciated.
As you guys may remember a few posts back I mentioned I am looking for signs to go long EU; there was confluence for a long position at or about 1.3300 however no VSA long signals were present (e.g. stopping volume, climactic action on bottom, etc.).
Based on the above I looked for signs for the down move to continue.
EU 4Hr Chart: Since we broke below the 1.3300 level, I anticipated if we retrace to that point it would act as resistance.
Confluence at this level:
1 Hr Chart:
Red down arrow shows expected point of confluence; we donāt see stopping volume on the 1 hr chart but we do see inverted hammers aka āpinbarsā aka āinverted hanging manā. More volume would have been nice.
5 Min chart:
We see two high volume bars followed by a bearish reaction + early ND - again the bars are not the most trustworthy, volume is not extremely high. BUT if you look at the other Euro crosses, there were strong signs of a bear move. EG, EJ and EC all looked nice to short but I chose EU because the bigger picture looked cleaner to me. Again, that was my perspective at the time.
I shorted EU right at the top of the last pinbar shown. My reasoning was I saw several high Volume bars having trouble getting through the 1.3100 level just before major news; AS had low volume. I figured price would go down further but I wanted to short right at the top to avoid having to place a large S/L or get whipsawed out on news.
I donāt recommend this type of entry unless you are well versed with it. I am not sure what the VSA term for it is, but I call it confirmed triple top/bottom. Basically high volume rejections with low volume AS - higher risk (move might continue against you), but also higher reward.
To avoid questions & add legitimacy to claims, here is a screen capture showing in the bottom yesterdays trade entry information and the chart showing todayās entry - which I am still in.
Using paint, I whited out certain information; stuff Iām sure you do not care about anyway
Iāve been busy but Iāll try to contribute something this week. I took a half position loss today on A/J (ah killed my streak!) but I didnāt take it in myfxbook (Iām bad at multitasking), so I guess this is where the mirroring my live account ends. Itās a bit tedious. If I do it again sometime it will be a live account. Iāll catch up on your postsā¦looking good.
Just checking out E/U, have a look at the volume highest in the last fortnight. High volume rejection?
What do you guys think?
May be looking at the short side in that area if VSA lines up nicely.
Itās a big assumption I think. There where a lot of fundamentals at play last week so high volume. I think what you are asking is if this is a re-distribution phase and not accumulation. Well possibly but the high volume spike on the downside yesterday proved strength in buying also.
Put it this way, you have a 50/50 chance of being correct :33:
When you have high volume showing up like that in both directions it suggests a supply and demand tug-of-war, sort to speak. There is no clear winner according to our methodology and thus not a favorable risk to reward ratio.
Donāt let that frustrate you however; if you think about it, VSA alerted you to market indecision; based on a mathematical system you may have been overbought/sold, entered and got kicked out of you tradeā¦and of course watch the trade turn in your favor shortly thereafter.
So best thing to do in this scenario is continue to stalk until you see a clearer Supply/demand imbalance - then execute
I assume you are speaking of the entry? Maybe it looks like ātop-fishingā or just blindly shorting?
I have a small handful of setups which I enter on. The setups are based on observations I made in the past and sound statistical testing; not intuition or a hunch. That entry was such a setup.
It is not an example of what not to do in VSA; it is an example of a proper entry at the right time for the right situation. I can discuss parameters and what I look for specifically for that trade later, if youād like.
Apologyās I was not implying that you where blindly entering at all. Your trades clearly indicate a tested thought process and it is to our benefit that you share them. In fact, have you thought of starting your own thread?
What I was really meaning was that your entry in that particular trade does not conform to Peteās strategy and for newbies straddling this thread (beginning and end at the same time) what you have posted may be confusing and a conflict with the way Pete preaches.
But I guess itās not for me to Police this thread and pretty arrogant of me to speak on Peteās behalf so I shall take a bow and step back in line.
I briefly thought of starting my own thread on VSA - but Pete has done so much work and invested so much time into āVSA adapted to Forexā that I feel it would be a dis-service at this point to start my own VSA thread. I agree with almost all of Peteās VSA methodologies; I differ a small bit based on my trading experiences (i.e. I seldom trade yen pairs). Exchanging ideas and experiences will make us all better traders.
I also have nothing to prove and do this for two reasons: to help others (I remember being a newbie and the struggle to find an honest source of information) and to exchange ideas. I think I would best accomplish that in the VSA community Pete has worked so hard to setup; itās a respect thing.
If I or somebody else posts a VSA entry method that is a little different, I think it could be a great learning experience for all of us. We can give positive criticism and all learn from the entry method - whether we adopt it or we find it is not useful, as long as it uses VSA methodology. I will never post non-VSA entries in this thread.
I in turn apologize for posting a trade without explaining in detail the reasoning behind it; sometimes I think people just understand what Iām thinkingā¦
