Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

Yup, have that, and it was next on my reading list!

135% profit in two weeks???

Were you trading only VSA and with all money management and risk management in check? I would assume that you must be throwing something out the window to attract that sort of gain. Myself, I have made a 3% profit, but it is steady with all money management, risk management, and trade management in order. It would be interesting to see some screen shots of your trades to qualify the 135% profit you have claimed.

This has, and is a great thread to learn VSA from, and I would think it would be a shame if inflated claims came over that gives learners a false sense of making quick money.

Quick money comes from a lack of discipline on the 3 Mā€™s (Mind, Money, Method). As quick as mone can come, it can go just as quick if the 3 Mā€™s arenā€™t in check.

:wink: thanks reading it now

I need to be more careful where I get my volume information from, not to blame the author but more so my own responsibility for finding accurate information relating the subject.

Wyckoff schematics is a hard read, but after a few runs through, things start to make sense. I do not look too much into the jump the creek analogy, but definately follow the other concepts of the markup, markdown, distribution, accumulation etc. The AR level is also a very powerful tool to use for taking a trade. In reality, I probably only use 50-61.8 fib levels and basic S/R on top of that info and am beginning to show more consistency and gaining confidence in my trading. I do know the stuff, but making the decision to enter a trade with real money had brought paralysis to me for a while.
That is where a trading plan becomes very valuable. You can cross off all the elements that say to trade and the fear/paralysis disperses and confidence takes over (without turning into ****yness).

Possibly the most important think is also what you identified above. The final RESPONSIBILITY is yours and yours alone, so take all the info in, but make up your own mind and become your own trader. I have learned a heck of a lot from Petefader, but that has not made me a clone of his methods. It has taught me what his methods are and some of his thought processes, then I develop that into my own plan, my own risk appetite etc.

Learned:10:

Itā€™s not just a hard read, the references to the schematics donā€™t match up, and the language used is pretty unclear at certain points. It reminds me somewhat of ā€œMaster the Marketsā€ in the seemingly contradictory nature. For example, high volume on a spring can be bullish, but so can low volume, and guess what, so can medium volume.

Are they just trying to get me to buy their software? Perhaps. Anyway, will stick with it, and go through Peteā€™s vids again, again.

Understanding VSA is difficult for me. I have read Master the Markets, and you can tell they want you to buy there software just by reading the dang thing. I believe up bars on high volume could mean any bar with a closing middle way or higher. I may be wrong but I take these bars as low volume bars with closings low as no supply and low volume bars with small price spreads and higher closings as no demand. I believe it also depends on the previous bar before the bar your looking at. High volume bars with high volume and closings high as selling by smart money and buying by the retail side of traders. So far I am mainly looking at volume in contrast to the size of the spread and the close of the bar in consideration of the background. See, Iā€™m still trying to figure it out.

It is not just the volume of the bar that needs to be looked at.
To study VSA effectively on the charts, you need t be able to analyse
Volume
Spread
Where the candle closed
This will give you a part of the picture, then you also need to see the reaction to that candle.

Example - High Volume up bar, pin on the bottom with wide spread. You may jump in and say that is strength - letā€™s buy

The next bar is a down bar, no pin on the bottom with med volume. This would indicate the overwhelming strength is not there and a long is quite possibly not a good idea.

If not a long, that doe not mean to short either. VSA helps us find where buying overcomes selling and vice versa. The example above is when one has not overwhelmed the other and we should not be in a trade on it. That is what gives us an edge - the ability to both choose when to enter a trade and when not to trade at all.

That has happened the last few days, strength followed by weakness in a small range. That has equalled no trade and I am fine with that.

Other considerations with VSA as well, which are important include
The higher timeframe. We should be looking at the higher timeframe to choose to trade, then drill into the 5min chart for entry placement, so keep an eye on the prevailing trend and S/R levels on the 1hr. Fib lines from prior days high/low are also important.

Please tust me when I say that VSA may seem confusing and contradictory, but as with Newton when the apple fell on his head, it becomes quite clear and obvious when you get that ā€œlightbulbā€ moment.

Persist with it, watch Petes vids and study hard. It will happen for you.

ps - Yes, MTM is a sell by tradeguider, but if you take out the tradeguider stuff and ignore the selling points, there is still very valuable information in there. If ou can find an older version of it, there is much less TG selling in it :slight_smile:

Oh yea, I know that well. But I still donā€™t have a clear picture in my mind. I just downloaded another copy of Trading the Markets or Understanding VSA. My first copy got lost. I do see a correlation between many of the systems I have studied on Babypips. Like eliot Wave and fib and trend lines and consolidation. Most of these areas it doesnā€™t take a brain surgeon to figure out. Most everyone knows a consolidation area. Most everyone knows a bottom a top and a low and high spread. The hard part of this VSA I believe is in the bars. Volume is pretty easy to figure out. It is either high or low and higher volume usually means smart money is involved. So a lot of this is already built into or exists in many of the other ways of trading, like trends, support and resistance etcā€¦etcā€¦ The difference is understanding that there is more than the retail trader involved and apparently the smart money are the main players in this VSA system.

When you say a High Volume up bar as a sign of strength, wouldnā€™t that bar be in the accumulation, re accumulation or markup phase, as I gathered from reading master the markets it says a High Volume up Bar in distribution is a sign of weakness. Need some clarification.

One part of the above is missing to make a full analysis. You also need to take into condsideration where the candle closes.
High volume up bar, closing in the middle can be weakness as SM was able to push price back down from the high of that candle.
High volume up bar closing at the top may/may not be weakness. The next candle is an important factor to see if the up move continues or gets knocked down by sellers.

Something i was told, and makes it easier for me is to ask a question of the candle/s in relation to SM.

What did the SM do in this candle. Were they involved (volume), where did they push it (top, middle bottom) and what did the next candle do in relation to that.

Many people look straight to the candle and do not look at the bigger picture. You need to look at the 1hr before going to 5min for entry, but I think I said that a few posts ago (and you did not question my way of thinking there, so no use explaining again).

I hope that helps. What I might try to do tomorrow is have a quick look over MTM and post the candles etc to hopefully explain a bit better what I was trying to say above. Maybe my thought process is not coming over so good when I type it out.

Tassiefx is correct. One extra thing to note also is that you have to wait for the close of the following bar for confirmation. For example, if you think that you have hit a buying/selling climax, then the following bar must close showing a strong bearish/bullish reaction.

I know Tom Williams says just jump in but for me that is a little too aggressive and prefer to have confirmation of a reversal.

Follow this with the push AR zones and NS/ND signals and then all should be good.

As far as I am concerned, yes I will go over MTM some more. I have also read some of Wycoffs analysis which is the basis for VSA. Actually MTM says that an Upbar with high shadow, if your looking at candlesticks, in beginning rally in Distribution with the next bar a down candlestick with a low close is a sign of weakness. Not sure about how low the close on the second bar. A lot of it I guess depends on effort versus results. I gather , in bar charts, a close in the middle or lower can be considered a low bar while a close in the middle to the high is considered a high bar. But yea you got to take that in context with the Volume and SM playing a role in it as well as the closes.

Hi, Folks. Iā€™m tight on time right now, so Iā€™m going to throw up a chart Iā€™ve put together for another group Iā€™m on, and some commentary from my posts in the group. The hourly lately looks pretty interesting. Itā€™s an aside to this group, but the Eagle refers to Extremely AGgressive Level of Entry, and is an entry in the 0.786 to 0.886 retrace region, and is accepted through our ā€œresearchā€ as being a stop-hunt for newbie positions. You can see that they work rather well.

Notes:

I would say to note the stopping volume prior to each bullish Eagle, and that in each case it happens on lower volume than the previous low (ie, the EAGLE is a successful ā€œtestā€ of supply). Note, also, that each of these points is not revisited. Also, and this is a bit subtler, and maybe means nothing, the EAGLE candle in each case has higher volume than the previous candle.

Now, take a look at the recent upthrust. This is pretty much the inverse of the Bullish EAGLEs, ie, a lower volume retest, but testing for demand this time. It is preceded by stopping volume and then some volume up candles, suggesting not much demand. Notice how there are no closes above the AR region.


Any comments are most welcome. Iā€™m here to learn.

Tight in time myself so just a quick comment on a very quick glance. The AR zone should come after stopping volume, not before. This is what I think.

I could add much more to the chart but short on time.


Hi Everyone, I started learning VSA from Peteā€™s videos and thread few days back but i am not able to figure how to trade Silver. Can someone please look at the chart and suggest something ? Thanks

This is the 1HR chart of silver.


Thanks for the examples.

Got a Question. In MTM, it says on low volume up bars that is a sign of weakness, due to no effort without results. Or lack of SM because the bars fail to rise on price. With low volume low close bars that is a sign of strength. I understand the low volume up bars being a sign of weakness, but why is a low volume downbar on small spread a sign of strength. Is it because the price has dropped.

Buyers and sellers close together creating a range. Iā€™ve explained how VSA can predict a range in the ā€œTruthā€ video series.