Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

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some wyckoff themed videos

Thanks for that! I just checked out the one on Volume Analysis, right on. It’s a shame that most traders have no idea about this. Then again, that’s why it works. SAC-4 Volume Analysis on Vimeo

Text book E/U long today on the dip. Taking the money from the sellers…it’s just business. :wink:

what I mean is, if stopping volume on the H1 is less reliable, is it stopping volume? Is the reaction to the bar the same as stopping volume?

E/U Rejects 1.30 Again, classic VSA/tech long setup. Note the large buyers that have been protecting that level since last week. Headlines are in the charts.

Bullish reaction confirms stopping Volume. If it is bearish, then it’s aggressive sellers and not stopping volume confirmed.

About reliability, if you don’t rush the entry and go the conservative way, there is no issue.

My last bunch of trades have been awesome…no complaints at all from me, I’ll take this market anytime. :slight_smile:

not in your session, but 1.297 looks good for another long. Maybe back up to 1.3 and see what reaction there.

clear no supply at the retest of the 1.2966 low. ie where there was supply there’s now none.

The last bounce off 1.3 was 50 pips up to .50 fib, a wining setup BUT now that it’s sitting below 1.3 I am not attempting to pick a bottom and will take a fresh look come US open. Buyers will bail or protect further, we’ll see. Hard for me to get a prediction at this point in the chart, at this time of day.

Hi petefader thanks for posting all this information in the thread and I have found it very interesting as well as informative.

I have attempted to put it to use in a recent trade that I have done on GBPUSD on my demo account and I was hoping you could check if I am thinking along the right lines. I have also only been trading for about a month so I am pretty new still so forgive me if I have made some newbie errors.


On the right track for sure. I see a No Supply at the top of the accum range which makes that a great long signal…in a good place after strength. Also, those points of strength in the background make the whole price area more easily reversed.

This e/u drop, yesterdays weakness and ND at fib rejection was entry. Hallelujah.

How do you usually go into news releases? Tomorrow will be my first time using VSA during a major news announcement with NFPs. I’m guessing I should be on the lookout for climatic volume or stopping volume…

I usually don’t trade Fridays anymore, and especially not Non-Farm, but that’s just me. I’m more into daily repetition.
But, when it comes to news moves there is a VSA approach. If you haven’t read it yet, Google “Master The Markets PDF”.

The short version on how I deal with news is this. Firstly, I don’t trust the initial move. The one that happens in the first 5 minutes. I look at the reaction to the initial move. See how the 15 min closes etc. Also, I consider the background, meaning where the Smart Money is positioned from to give perspective on the action. It’s a bit much to get into now. Check out the book.

"For instance, you may observe a bullish rally in progress
with sudden high volume appearing – news at this time will almost certainly be ‘good’. However, the next
day is down, or has only gone up on a narrow spread, closing in the middle or even the lows. This is an
indication of weakness – the market must be weak because if the high activity (high volume) had been
bullish, why is the market now reluctant to go up?

“When reading the market, try to see things in context. If
you base your analysis on an effort versus results basis, you will be taking a very sensible and logical
approach that detaches you from outside influences, such as ‘news’ items, which are often unwittingly
inaccurate with regards to the true reasons for a move. Remember, markets move because of the effects of
professional accumulation or distribution. If a market is not supported by professional activity, it will not
go very far. It is true that the news will often act as a catalyst for a move (often short-lived), but always
keep in mind that it is the underlying activity of ‘smart money’ that provides the effort and the result for
any sustained price movement.”

“They can easily mark the market up or down on good or bad news, or any other pretense. They are not under the severe trading pressures of normal traders, because they are aware of the real picture, and in the most part, it is they who
are doing all the manipulating. This is good news for us because we can see them doing this, in most cases
fairly clearly, and can catch a good trade if we are paying attention.”

“Why play around with the prices? Well, the market-makers want to trap as many traders as possible into
poor positions. An extra bonus for them includes catching stop-loss orders, which is a lucrative business in
itself.”

“Journalists and television reporters assume that when the market hits new highs on high
volume, that this is buying and a continuation of the up-move (the news is ‘good’ and everybody is
bullish). This is a very dangerous assumption.”

-Master The Markets

Hi PeteFader, I am still a beginner in the forex market. During my search for systems I found your last thread a while back and I am currently trying to make it through. For me it seems absolutely convincing (although I am still lost in “live” situations and distracted by nearly everyything:P) but hopefully I will see a larger picture soon;-). On my search about VSA I lately stumbled across a VSA beginners guide by “Karthik Marar”. In his chapter about S/R levels, he sais

In general increased volume with increased spread as the stock approaches a resistance area is a bullish sign. Falling volume and decreased spread would mean that stock would be stalled at these areas.
In the same way decreased volume and spread as the stock approaches support area is sign that the stock would take support in that area and reverse. Increased volume and spread would indicate that chances of the stock breaking the support are more.

Now this distractes me a little… till now I understood -in general - increasing volume at a resistance would indicate supply coming in or demand at support? Could you clarify where I am wrong?

Hi Atrain,

First of all, up or down, it’s the same thing in FX. Those differences do not apply. I treat support and resistance the same. These are just a bunch of currencies moving in relative value to each other. Up for one is down for the other, no difference.

Secondly, you will see differences in what I teach compared to others, including Tom Williams. I’m not here to reinvent the wheel, I just call it like I see it. The differences could be partially attributed to the Volume of tick activity that we are using, rather than actual Volume used in traditional VSA teaching and that it originated with Stocks.

Yes, I’ve read Master the Markets. Great read. I just wanted a response from a VSA trader. But okay, just expect the same setups and don’t fall into the crowd. Thanks

Hey Pete. Great job on your explanations of VSA, easily my favorite approach to trading Forex. I came across your Mad-Scapler technique as well. Can’t wait to give that a try, even though I know I should wait for the London session, I might check it out today lol.
I was wondering. How do you differentiate between the two strategies? It seems sufficient to trade the Mad Scapler with trending moves. But if moves aren’t trending, I don’t see that as a VSA opportunity I think? If you could explain that, I’d really appreciate it. Thanks

Just a little history. I traded a while before I discovered VSA. It was practically nonexistent in the FX community until around 2007 and back then people debated if i was even legitimate. Anyway, Mad Scalper gives you an idea of how I was trading scalps before really getting the hang of VSA…my way. I had a different set of indies for larger TF trades as well, but I always considered technical analysis along with any indies based signals.

Simply put, Mad Scalper offers entries during trending moves. VSA and technical analysis tells me if I should expect the trend to continue OR skip the MS entry. So it gives additional opportunities I can consider taking IF my VSA/Tech analysis agrees.

You said if there is no trend that VSA doesn’t give opportunities. That is not correct. Trade-able signs of strength/weakness still appear and I prefer the ones at the top/bottom of the range, preferably in the direction VSA says price will break from the range.

Oh Okay. That makes sense. From your videos, it seems almost full-proof lol honestly. The Mad Scalper has been much easier to understand then the VSA methodology. That in a way spooked me because I don’t want to predominately trade the Scalper and totally forget the VSA outlook. I’ll be sure to continue to watch your videos and read the forums to help me better grasp VSA.