Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

if you don´t mind i will try to give you an answer :slight_smile:
first of all i want to trade WITH the trend. for this fact i look at the H4 chart and try to define in which situation (up- or downtrend or range) the market is.
looking at H4 i see a nice DOWNmove. so i look for SHORT entries. i will wait for pullbacks in the downmove and try to find as many confluences as possible to make them to high probability setups.
next step is trying to find areas where this pullback could develop. for this i use support and resistance areas and fib zones. that´s all at the moment. now when i see volume coming up in this area and getting it confirmed (bearish reaction and no close above high from last candle) on the H1, i zoom into M15 and M5 and define the AutomaticSupport and look for NoDemands …
thats my plan so far. now to your chart:
your entry is in the middle of nowhere and you dont use smaller timeframes like pete does :slight_smile: maybe you try to bring the reasons for your trade so that one can understand your thoughts better.
i am happy when here is some traffic going on :slight_smile: so feel free to write all you may think!
greetings!

Thanks tse!




ok i will give it a try :slight_smile:
but please see it as a discussion and not as teaching :wink: i am learning this stuff since few months.
ok at first and this is what you should do always first imo, is looking what is the background about!?
so look to the left and there you have to search for high vol bars to define if the background is weak or strong. in your example the last days USD/JPY had the most volume on down bars which means you have strength in the background! why? always remember: weakness shows on upbars and strength on downbars!
ok so we have strenght in the background… now look to the upmoves. was there high volume or was there a lack of demand? imo lack of demand! because only medium volume and not high.
good. now we are searching for stopping volume!.. do we have it? and can we confirm it in H1? (bullish reaction) and here it begins to become unclear… sure we have another downbar there but also a lot of supply… we want the risk as low as possible and for me it would not be worth to watch it more because i want clean setups.
well but you did and when i look to M15 and M5 there you have everything you need. an AR, NDs, bullish reaction to bearish high vol candles etc…
BUT VSA is like storytelling. the story must fit and unfold … for me the chapter would be finished when looking to the trend and near resistance levels.price was at 97.00 and round numbers can be a S&R zone … so your entry would be very close to a possible supply zone. and that is not what you want. you want space/room for price to shoot up :wink:

so in the end i would not trade there because the picture for me is not clear.
and my list of contras:

  • time you trade
  • against trend
  • close to respected resistance zone
  • setup on H1 not clean
  • for me enough reasons to skip it

i am sorry when this all is kind of irritating or confusing but i really tried my best to explain you. i am sure pete can do better :smiley: and this is just my personal opinion. could be wrong could be right, in the end you decide … (a rhyme yeah)

if you have any questions i will try to answer as good as possible

Thank you tse, this was very helpfull.

I watched the videos multiple times, and I also traded live this system for a while. My main problem is that I am too aggressive, resulting in a bad win rate, which makes me basically break-even.

I think the H1 chart analisys is quite clear to me, but the main question mark to me is: when should I start looking for an entry in M5 (M15) charts? I always seem to start too early or too late.

Let’s say I see stopping volume and bullish reaction on H1, looking to left all seems ok for a markup. From now on, all becomes unclear to me:
-start looking for no supply now?
-wait and see where the automatic rally ends and wait for a push through it?
-other?

I know the answer might be: depends on how aggressive you want to be. Fact is that when I’m aggressive, I often get initial success, but then I’m stopped break-even or worse; when I try to stay conservative, I often entry too late.

I would like to know when Pete and you guys like to switch to the lower timeframe.

Stopping volume may knock the chart into distribution/accumulation. It not often has for example, a downtrend, then stopping volume and straight into an uptrend.
I know it knocks a lot of trades out and you catch it a bit later (the right one), but looking for a confirmation after the 1hr climactic action is a minimum in my world (others may be different, which is still OK).
If you go from a downtrend, see stopping volume and then it goes into accumulation, mark the highs and lows and check the volume. You should see low volume at the peak and high volume at the trough.
Wait patiently for the “Jump over the creek” where price breaks that upper accumulation resistance and see it come back and offer support on higher volume. It has then successfully “Jumped the creek”. Hold on for a NS confirmation candle on the 5min TF and take a nice long there, with S/L about 5 pips below the prior low on the other side of the creek.

High probability trade but not an option that comes about every day. Remember, that quite often, a trend may stall, only to find more people for SM to take money off, and then resume the prior trend wit impatient traders taking the opposite direction too early.

That is what I look for in a trend change type trade. In a trend continuation, I quite often draw a fib from the previous days high and low as a possible S/R area in the 50-61.8 area. Then wait for pullbacks that may go as far as the fib area and re-join the trend after hitting that 50-61.8 fib. Take the trade after successful rejection and ND confirmation (on down trend) with the S/L on the other side of the 50-61.8 fib zone.

They are my two main VSA trade entries

Thanks Tassiefx, that’s very clear, but to be sure:
-if you identify a re-accumulation/re-distribution, you switch to lower timeframe after a high volume rejection of .50/.618 FIB area;
-if you identify an accumulation/distribution, you switch to lower timeframe if/when price pushes through the automatic rally and retests it on high volume.

Anyone else willing to share his personal view on this crucial aspect?

Yes, that’s pretty much it. I prefer to enter on NS/ND confirmations on the 5min, but there are also many others that are just as happy with a push through entry and also a few others who trade the 15min quite well as well.

Looking forward to others opinions as well. Just for your interest, I was mostly brought up to speed via Petefader, and most of my understanding came from him. A very good mentor/teacher :slight_smile:

nice posts tassie :slight_smile: thank you!

in my opinion there are only a few entries with VSA.

  • trading a pullback which i would recommend for beginners because easy to spot and higher probability -> with the trend
  • trend reversal, where i would only enter with “complete” setup (wide spread candle,bearish reaction,ND/NS, fakebreak, break through AS/AR and confirmed test with NS/ND and always wait for close of candle) ->against the trend

maybe you forget to watch the areas where you trade in? don´t forget that your trade also needs some space to develop… don´t enter near strong S&R area! but maybe you already know :smiley:

greetings

Thanks for your contribution tse13, also very nice summary some posts ago in answer to cica.

I would like to focus on what triggers the switch to a lower timeframe in search for an entry point.
I seem to do quite well in the H1 analisys (or larger timeframes btw), and spotting ND/NS has been my bread and butter even before reading this thread, as I already used VSA.
What I seem to be bad at, is timing in switching from H1 to M5 (or M15), either too early or too late. From your post above, your approach on this seems to be similar to Tassiefx, correct me if I’m wrong.

I see a variety of entries in Petefader’s videos, sometimes way aggressive, sometimes the opposite.
Looks to me like sometimes he switches to a lower timeframe when the H1 bar showing the bullish/bearish reaction after stopping volume is still in progress (way early), other times, after a range with multiple tests of high and low, he seems to know when the market is “ready for a mark-up/down”.
This is the unclear aspect to me and what I find difficult to learn. Sure he developed a great way to read inside the chart and understand what’s going on, which allows him to take a variety of different trades, yet successful with a high rate. I understand that he cannot explain this thing in simple words as a general concept, because of the many variations, but maybe if we have some examples here, like Tassiefx posted above, we can all progress.

i think to eliminate your uncertainty it would be better to you to wait for the reaction and its close. sure, you will miss some trades in this way but you will also have less losers. i like to watch the chart in M15 more than M5. i feel more comfortable with but this is just again a personal view.
pete does this whole thing many years… it would be insane if we could do the same after a few weeks of trading and learning this stuff.
make your rules. make them to high probability trades for the beginning and always be able to react to what the market tells you. vsa seems to me like the kings discipline of trading. it is not just waiting for a signal. it is reading the market. feeling its pulse and let the story unfold. just like you have to become one with the market. hell, this sounds like a nice story but i guess after years of experience you come to this state … and thats why pete know when it is enough to have only one confirmed NS and when he needs the whole program of signs… :slight_smile: don´t worry i am not sure with my entry sometimes too. but when i have this feeling… i skip it! try to analyse it afterwards and then maybe one day i will be as good or better then pete :wink:

hey pete,

thanks for the video!
i also saw this but skipped because i did not want to trade in the 1.6000 zone?! did pay you attention to it? and if not, why? :slight_smile:
i have to mention that i draw my “range lines” a bit different, maybe it is because of this fact.
kind regards

If you mean the smaller fib that I drew later in the video, I would rather it not be there but not all trades are picture perfect. I look at probability. If 4 things are telling me to get into a trade, and 1 thing is saying don’t take it, I’ll usually take it…unless Volume is the one saying don’t take it.

I’m not sure how you could not have that resistance as the top of the range.

thanks for the reply :slight_smile:

i had my lines like this:
Chart GBPUSD, H1, 2013.10.17 20:02 UTC, FxPro Financial Services Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
so my upper resistance(range) line was the 1.6000 area which was tested as support before. i draw it in H4 and saw “your” upper line as fakebreak…
anyways gz to this trade and thanks for the answer!

Hi Pete,

I just want to say thanks for the wonderful system and great videos. You do such a great job of showing how to trade using your method! I have been trading for three years now, and I think I have finally had that ah ha moment where it all makes sense now. I have tried many ways of trading and this is the first one that really makes sense if you read all the signs correctly especially volume. I had my first real trade just last night and it hit my TP almost to the pip! Keep the videos coming.

What is your opinion?
I try to create a trade.pdf (21.2 KB)

Examples can be linked to each individual case
fazisok3.pdf (277 KB)

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