hi guys!
NZD -USD H1
NZD -USD M5
Much better today. I took e/u short. Look at fake break on 4hr. Then smaller TF gave fib retrace entry. Entry 13:39 gmt. Didnāt wait for ND due to high probability. Took most profit off around DP, letting some run.
Hi, nice to have you. Technically nothing wrong with your analysis but for me I like to see sustained buying on higher volume at the lower prices in those situations, and look for the no supply test as price move away from the lowā¦testing for sellers at it starts to bounce, but thatās my particular style.
Looks like youāve taken the Mad Scalper indies I posted? The colored indicator is not setup the way I have it. For that you need to use the template that I gave out with those indies. I wouldnāt use it on the settings you have there.
Would I be correct to be looking for shorts on E/U right now? 1H shows supply hitting after high volume up bar with long top wick appeared. M15 shows sort of a double, almost triple top with high volume up bars with bearish reactions. Then 5M shows highest volume bar in quite awhile with very bearish reaction. Would it be reasonable to wait for a ND and/or pullback for a short entry? Or am I way off since Iām rusty? 
Yes the short is setting up. At this point itās still aggressive without the 1hr closed.
Hi guys!
Common phenomenon that the volume of before the last candle is high. What is the reason?
Thanks.
Further examples:
At the points 1, 2, did not dare enter, due to the decrease volume. I made a mistake?
Hey guys, Peteā¦ Question time. With regards to the EU,Iāve read somewhere along that in a trend channel, unless there is a push through on high volume, and the opportunity presents itself, you can capture a quick short trade. So that said, here are the charts, with a sort of crude explanation of the trade logic. I didnāt take the trade, as Iām still learning, however, Iām still trying to develop the logic towards the trade.
On a side note, TSEā¦ the USDCHF broke out of the range, but no trade signal came along. It eventually went back into the range, and broke out againā¦ giving a decent amount of profit this time. Again, as Iām still learning, I didnāt take the trade, but trying to rationalize the logic behind entries as I go along. Maybe a chart later will help understand the logicā¦
Hi Pete, thanks for the quick reply today. I ended up not taking the original short I was considering at 14:00 as it seemed a bit aggressive and I never got a ND to get in before it reversed on me. It wouldāve worked out for ~15 pips but better safe than sorry.
What I wanted to ask you about is the validity of a potential setup that I saw at 16:00. I know thatās a bit late so I didnāt take the trade but wanted to see if my analysis was correct. It looked like a two bar reversal with high volume at the top of the trend channel on the 1H and 5M.
First question, is this a valid setup? Second question, would it be too aggressive (in your opinion) to get in right after the close of the 5M bar at 14:00 given that the 5M and 1H lined up? It looks like the trade wouldāve been good for about 20 pips with no draw down with this entry. Otherwise, there was a ND at 16:20 that I couldāve rode down for about 10 pips. I know this is all late in the day but am really still working on my analysis before anything else.
Lastly, and sorry for the long post, what phase are we in now? While my trend channel below makes it look like markup / uptrend for recent price action, I kind of also think we could be ranging in distribution. I could use some help in this area.
Thanks Much!
Iām new to this thread so someone else may have to verify my answer, which is that it depends. Sometimes the scenario you are pointing out can be a sign of continuation while other times it can be a sign of a reversal.
In an uptrend, ff Iām looking retrospectively and see a reversal after the situation youāre describing, I would assume that first bar is where selling began in that uptrend. If I look back and the trend continued, I would say demand was strong and/or the market encountered absorption volume.
When analyzing in real time, my simple answer would be that you just have to wait and see what price does on the upcoming bars.
I hope this isnāt way off base.
Thanks
yes i recognized it and this is why your own thoughts are more important than anything else. when i look at the charts i see something else than you and vice versaā¦ you can only catch opinions hereā¦ in the end you have to decide if you trade or notā¦ looking to it in the hindsight i would have the same opinion again. highest volume on downbars and lower volume on upbarsā¦as you watch for the background in H1 (27.9. and 30.9.)ā¦
furthermore ā¦ look at the H4 chartā¦ the movement you are talking about can be seen as a fakebreak and afterwards we have a 50-60pips upmoveā¦ you see it is always a question of perception thatĀ“s it.
you will never have 100% and the rest is declared with your SL
greetings
Pipdaddy, just continuing my āanalysisā from yesterday. Its along the EU you spotted yesterday. Again, Iām ultra conservative and so I tend to take the most safe entries and exit at the first sign of opposition. As Pete says, capital protection is most important. Trades can and will follow, but most importantly I need capital to trade with. Anyhow, the ramblings are on the chart. They are as I see them. Maybe someone else more knowledgeable can point me in the right direction if I am off.
TSEā¦In retrospect, I see what you are saying about the volume on down bars. I saw the stopping volume, but with the price inside the range, it looked more like redistribution than accumulation. Granted, more weakness than strength. But trading within a range is the fastest way to loose money, so i prefer take a quick trade when price breaks out of the range, hence the decision to wait for a trade below the SR line. In fact, if you hadnāt pointed that outā¦:31:
But of course, Iām still learning, so maybe fader or one of the more knowledgeable ones can confirm my suspicions.
Pete, sorry about the clutter with charts and postings here, there and everywhereā¦:8:
USDCHF, the H4 shows that we have been in a trend channel for a bit. The first chart shows where we are in respect to the bigger picture. Again, as price reaches to the upper limits of the trend channel, we some some profit taking with the wicks on the candles, just at a SR. So now, we have 2 optionsā¦
- We wait for a breakout above the SR and out of the trend channel, and see what happens next OR
- We start looking for signs of weakness, and try to get in with the bears.
This entire scenario is somewhat similar to the EU uptrendā¦but of course, I stand to be corrected.
good morning springger
maybe i can make you an advise. donĀ“t complicate it. look where price stopped in the bigger pictureā¦ is this maybe an old resistance zone? was it support before?
well, after questioning yourself this you look on daily chart and see that this level now was a very strong resistance line. additionally in H4 you see how price broke through it in a downtrend and is now testing this area againā¦ with this kind of volume we have there, it would be a good point to search for a short entry imo. i give you a link from H4 chart. maybe you can see this too
http://s1.directupload.net/images/131005/53smedd8.jpg
i look forward to read your opinion and from others
greetings and happy weekend analysis
Hey Guys. With the start of school semester, day trading isnāt looking promising. Short on time in the AM and practice has me needing more sleep in order to preform. Is it possible to trade VSA on higher TF, 1hr or 4hr? I need something more long term as I can only get solid screen time in the eveningsā¦
hola upcomer
i think i remember there was a guy who tried it successfully on the H1 timeframeā¦ but not sure!
but when u read MTM there is also said that VSA in general works on every timeframe. when it comes to petes approachā¦ i am not sure!
good luck in the new semester and with trading the higher TFs!
The last few days I have not found a safe entry. You find?
for me personally i found a little spot yesterday in G/Jā¦ price tested an old S&R-zone which became resistance after breakthrough on fridayā¦ when testing we had the highest volume of the day (so we had a nice pullback in the current downmove)ā¦ then a ND confirmed and i took 27pips ā¦ but i was busy the last days learning vsa and other related stuff for tuning my trading skills so could not find that many spotsā¦
pipful week to all of you
