Looks like you had a nice trade here. Hopefully you bagged some pips and got out before late US session! I didn’t trade the EU today as I felt the background was mixed. If you look on the left edge of your H1 chart you see some strength there. That led me to have a bullish bias. Then Friday was rangy and had very flat volume. However, you were correct on the SOW today, which you were correct in assessing as a bearish signal. I had bad luck with trading Mondays in the past, so for me I would’ve been on the sideline watching with this mixed bag.
All that said, it was not an unreasonable trade and I can totally see why you took it. I like your entry a lot. Foxontherun mentioned taking the trade up at 1.3800. This is totally personal choice. With entry at 1.38 you would’ve had a better R:R. However, you also would’ve had higher risk for two reasons: 1. anytime you enter the trend early on, you have increased risk and 2. look at what was to the left, a huge SOS (at that moment in time). I would’ve done just what you did which was wait for price to come down to confirm that the big down bar was actually sustained selling, and let the trend confirm itself.
You were smart to keep a tighter stoploss. Obviously if you used the daily high up by 1.3830 as a stop, that would be a HUGE stop loss and not worth the trade. So, good move there.
Lastly, in regards to the ND, I think what you did was reasonable. From a strictly technical perspective that ND was invalidated by the next bar closing above it. However, it looks like it only went up by 1 single pip, and on low volume. Further, the next bar closed down confirming the ND. Given the background, the fact that the bar only closed 1 pip higher, and then the next bar closed lower, I would’ve been comfortable jumping in there. Like Pete says, the rules are there to guide us, but there does come a point where you have to rely on your mastery and some common sense to guide you. Thats what you did in this case and I think it was reasonable.
Lastly, it seems like there was a lot of buying into those down moves last week. That 110 pip move up this afternoon confirms that observation. Keep a close eye out for what price and volume does from here. If you notice, the H1 bars and 15M bars around that big move, don’t have any wicks on them, which is very peculiar. Let’s hope for some good setups this week!
Just to point out a quick tip for you; I noticed in this post you must’ve had a long bias given that you were in a long trade before this drop. Remember that just because a SOW comes into the market, doesn’t mean you should, or have to switch you bias immediately. In this case it was fairly reasonable and the bottom line is that it worked out. However, just remember that when you have both SOS and SOW in the recent background, it’s okay to wait and see what happens. It’s totally a matter of personal taste for risk, but just to point out that with mixed backgrounds, the conservative thing to do is wait for some further confirmation. In this case you may have even gotten in for that huge long move later in the day.
I’m interested in that you mention taking a trade earlier increases the risk, for me I think the opposite, I kind of want to be in there before the price is going to move, and not wait until after. Then again, I get stopped out too much and enter too early, ha! If my conviction was correct I probably would be out on the yacht
Moving forward (as I feel like we can gather some good momentum in this forum), I’ve come from the madscalper (Pete’s) original forum, and while I can see that methodology was not as good as reading price and volume alone, I did like that it had criteria.
The criteria for this VSA forum I’m guessing is roughly:
assess 1hr TF for price response to high volume (stopping volume, selling into buying, pins etc.) & look for smart money pre-positioning,
take note of the price trend (50EMA roughly, but I like to use swing highs & lows visually)
take note of key support & resistance
trade according to all three, if the optimum entry is missed on the 1hr then go into the 5m TF, looking for NDNS bars to enter safely in on?
Anything I’ve missed? I’m trying to establish a few ‘checks’. Also news announcement on FF or fxstreet I guess?
Ha, that long trade bit me in the arse mate. To be honest, I sit around ALL day Monday waiting to trade until 2pm my time, so I’m too eager… Price was range-bound & nothing on my four pairs, I see one sign of direction, and took it. Too impatient, right before news, stupid on my part and I should know better.
The volume on that up move should have been a give-away to me and it had a massive pin/sellers on the top. A rubbish trade really (the long bias one)
LOL, I’ve never drawn a FIB on the M1 chart, but sure as sh*t, this higher volume upbar that Foxontherun pointed out is RIGHT at the 50 FIB level. This adds even more probability to the move. Good eye man!
For the London Session Traders, I’ve just reviewed the 1hr TF for GJ, GU, EU and AJ.
Please anyone feel free to throw in their thoughts on volume bias and trend etc…
GBPJPY - Neutral Volume bias, yesterday’s highest volumes were shared by large buyers AND sellers (imo). Trend is a bit range-bound also, will wait on this to reveal a direction.
GBPUSD - Huge bearish stopping volume yesterday and some nice bearish pins prior to that. Trend down. Short Bias here.
EURUSD - Big up move yesterday, good “stopping” volume but really only proportional to the bearish candle, so I’m still learning towards being long here. Trend is up (based on the huge move up). Happy to let this one play out a bit.
AUDJPY - Some good bearish volume this morning, highest vol of the day, could be the last of the move. Will wait for trend to be technically ‘down’, but I’m bearish here.
This is all at GMT 6:30. Anyone’s comments/bias more than welcome.
Sakib717, Pete (the guy who started this forum) has recorded about 50 trading/webinar things… sharing is caring, but so is doing a bit of research There’s a video on the previous page, or here petefaders - YouTube
i Collected all…i thought Pete shares some private video with few people, middle of this thread i found a lot of videos those were showing private on youtube, so thats why…
Nope, basically the No Demand No Supply one is the best (imo) and the one that Pete recently posted yesterday (scroll back in the forum)
I’d look elsewhere for some lessons/tutorials on trend definition and trading within ranges, and also Support & Resistance. Somewhere like Your Trading Coach | Home I’ve found useful.
For the vsa pro’s, I find myself always between trading with the trend (1HR & 50ema 5m TF) as mentioned in the first post and the ‘pitfalls’ video, and trying to find reversals using volume (as in this UJ trade above). Any suggestions?
This is kind of why I lean toward something like mad scalper (but utilising NDNS candles).
Check the 4h, the trend should be easier to spot for that particular trade
Market is accumulating positions now, will see what it brings. I would be more confident if the stops above 102.67 were triggered before the down trend to continue.
Congrats and many thanks to Pete for starting this thread and continuing to devote his time and effort to helping and educating us all.
I’m not new to trading Forex but I am new to VSA.
I have been scanning through my charts this evening and the reverse Upthrust on the EUR/USD jumped out at me. The daily chart is in a clear up trend and we have a clear SOS on the 1 Hour chart with a double bottom and a reverse upthrust or stop hunt with high volume. The preceding candle is bullish but has hit some resistance around 1.38500 and has a large pin on top. We are now in the Asian session and activity is very low and price is currently stuck in a small tight range.
Your views and comments of how you think price may play out is very much appreciated.
Hi Peekinside, you’re welcome. Your analysis makes sense but all things considered I’m not really liking the sloppy background situation on this pair right now. Most likely though setups will come buying low/selling high in the range but it comes down to simply seeing what tomorrow brings for me. I’m not on until NY open so I’ll have the luxury of getting more information by then.
Hey Pete, any advice for being stuck between trying to stay with the trend and trying to stay with smart money/volume on the 1hr TF… like being between a rock and a hard place!
Say for eg: trading with the 50ema on the 5m TF (madscalper style) but then seeing stopping volume at a support & resistance & looking for a reversal on a no demand candle…
For some time now my approach is simply to stay with the 1hr trend/VSA background unless there is good evidence of profit taking/reversal trades from SM (either climactic volume, or accum/dist over a period of time)
So you might want to simply go with that.
If I understand correctly, your issue is high vol signs of strength/weakness on the 5 min that don’t match the 1hr trend/vsa background…and if you should take them.
Considering the 1hr trend/VSA background gives me my direction. (I do look at smaller TFs to make sure high vol areas are what they appear.) So, if I see a high vol signal on the 5 min suggesting a reversal it’s not going to get me going counter trend, just from that. If anything it does suggest a retracement is likely but keeping in mind how the majority on SM is positioned from our background, a 5 min “blip” of high volume doesn’t exactly cancel all that out…that is my logic behind following the bigger picture first and foremost.
To simplify it, going counter trend/background off a 5min signal is NOT something I do. It is however reasonable to take that trade if enough things give good probability. So maybe considering that you need additional conformation to improve the probability. That could come from any of the tools I use.
So for example, you may require some “confluence” to improve the probability. Like a double bottom/top fake break, S/R, pivots etc. Other things to agree with that trade. Maybe that helps.
At this point I only use Mad Scalper entries when there is a very one sided trend that I don’t expect to retrace much, and I just need a way in. It’s pretty rare.
Having said all that…it sounds like you might be looking to over trade. Just make sure there are enough reasons to enter if volume is not clearly backing it up on the bigger picture.
Thanks mate, and for the latest VSA youtube vid. I found myself really comfortable w/ madscalper & then found it easier to remove a few of the indicators, just a little confusion when the 1hr/VSA shows smart money pre-positioning to ‘sell’ but on something like the 5m TF we’ve got a nice uptrend. Part of me wants to jump in on a No supply/trending setup but the other part knows that on the 1HR we’ve seen selling. Say GJ right now would be a good example, but then like you mentioned, wait for a double top or some weakness at a resistance level before considering counter trends on the 5m. Actually GJ is probably spot on. I should be looking at that chart more than the forum!
(the long bias one)
There’s a video on the previous page, or here 
