Good article Tassie, although I couldn’t read the WSJ due to lack of subscription.
I started trading May 2012, straight out of high school with no knowledge of the financial markets. It wasn’t until June 2013 that I had a decent foundation and understanding thanks to this thread, Pete’s help, and months of trial and error. I’m a trader that is only fond of this type of low volatility environment. I can imagine it must have been the norm to place much larger stops, but at the same time be a recipient of extremely profitable moves. It’ll be a new experience for me when it returns.
USD pairs showed up move to come off Friday’s news trap. I went long g/u yesterday…obvious setup. Up 119 pips now.
Where is your profit target? I know you use multiple. I’m thinking this might take off like the U/J in late 2012.
TP’s generally are when volume gives an indication that the current trend is starting to fall over. That way, you cut losses quickly (with a pre-determined % risk S/L) and let the profits run. You would normally draw in fib levels to check for possible areas of S/R against your trade, but the GU is really in long uncharted territory. Just look for volume & price action that may tell you that it is time to get out
I was thinking maybe waiting for a clear distribution phase as this pair has been in an uptrend for so long or 2.00. :51:
Yes, it is in an obvious markup phase, so if it were to be “ideal” you would see a climax into a range. Determining the volumes at the bottom and top of the range should indicate if it is accumulation of distribution and you can assess from that. Maybe if that were to happen, identify the higher point of the range and TP around there if you didn’t already do that at or near the climax.
We have High impact GBP news on Thursday (interest rates), so maybe that could cumulate to being the climactic event??
…and keep in mind the AR of 2008-09 melt down. 
Also E/j short setup today. Again, having a lot to do with Friday’s news trap and pre-positioning.
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I saw the EJ sell at the 61.8, great trade.
I’m curious though, the highest VOL on Friday saw a Bullish reaction.
Would you say that you were seeking a short because of the Upthrust followed by the New Lows on Sunday’s open? I ask because I could see myself putting too much value into the Bullish Reaction.
Apply the principles “Effort VS Result” and “Sustained vs Temporary” to the pre-positioning and you should see the answer.
The Result in the end was lower prices on that potential strength/bullish reaction. Sunday open showed the buying was not sustained there, the selling (aggressive and pre-positioning) was.
G/U, I’m already out. I’ll look for Reaccum on pullbacks to get in again as long as weakness doesn’t appear. Most likely going to test 1.70 soon.
OK Thanks, I’ll be sure to apply those principles, especially “Sustained vs Temporary”. That one is new to me.
The Bullish reaction was barely temporary, while the aggressive selling was sustained, even over the weekend. That cleared things up, thanks.
Yep, Sustained VS Temporary is a principle I added to the method myself.
If a price area showed strength…all it takes is a revisit of that area on low volume to communicate that buyers are not “Sustaining” their activity. Traditional VSA says you can look for a low vol signal to go long there (NS with strength in bkgd) but it’s no good, and can often lead to lower prices immediatly.
OK, That sounds familiar. I think I’ve heard you mentioned this in one of your recent videos, how price should pull away from the zone of high activity before looking for NS signals because that lack of VOL could actually be an Achilles heel for your trade.
I must admit, I haven’t applied that aspect of VSA to my analysis enough.
Just getting on. Hunting USD pair longs and Yen shorts.
I dont see much happening, I’m thinking after yellen starts yellin we could see some usd strength followed by some buying against the usd pairs.
I got a pending on a/u @.9280 also a 50% fib zone and on the g/u around 6940, Im thinking the au is probably a better long.
Hit first target on E/J, 20 pips at .50 fib… Stop at BE now and holding for more hopefully. I did go in just a few minutes into Yellen but whatever…the story line was clear as day and it went to first target in a few mins with no DD. Initial up move was an obvious trap.
Likewise, my only trade of the day was E/J Short on the rally.
The aggressiveness of the up move today on E/J, however, has me considering whether or not the Bulls are more of a factor than I once thought.
Of course the down moves can’t be as significant as the one NFPs produced, but the subsequent rallies have had greater velocities. Maybe I’m over thinking but I’ve been curious about the velocity of moves lately and their outlook into future predictions.
Hit my target, played it a couple times, back in long at 6945. Whats everyones take on the GU? Look bullish?
The 5 min looks like a mixed bag but on closer look the 1min and 1hour look pretty bullish to me…