Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

OK that makes sense. I’ll be sure to be on the lookout for that.
I’m not under the impression Monday is where you look for the bias of the entire week but due to the SOW on Thurs/Fri, Mon should have some too. OK

Check out my analysis of EJ
Outside of VSA, I’ve noticed gaps, more times than not, get filled. So I was hoping to test that little theory out.

I was most concerned about the VOL on Friday and whether or not it was Bullish. It did have 3 successive higher closes but price never closed above the High VOL candle. Price only began to fall after VOL dropped off for the week. The horizontal lines are daily lows and price held at the lower one.

There is also a ABCD move down to the bottom a couple bar ago. Just a little more confluence.


Hello guys,this is the trade I took on GBP/JPY

H4: Screenshot by Lightshot
H1: Screenshot by Lightshot
M5: Screenshot by Lightshot

I took most of my position out on my 1st entry and left a partial to run,but then I see some weakness came it,so my guess is the price is trying to make a pull back to the fib area,so I closed all my position to avoid losing more pips and try to make my second entry on the retracement,apparently they did,and I made my second entry and it hit my TP(should have adjust my target higher but you know,its late at night,I’m more comfortable to not left my trade overnight)

It was a bit of a mess during the news spike,but overall it was a nice setup. :slight_smile:

Hi Justin!
What is the indicator that is made up of red and green points ? Can you give me link?

Cica,search for “forex genesis indicator”, i dont really use them,its just a “decoration” for my template :slight_smile:

Hi pete,

I understand we shouldn’t trade after 16:00gmt, i just wanted to know then, what time can we start trading again the following day then?
so basically when can we take our first trades the following day?

thanks.

What’s your take on the Euro guys? From my point of view, it’s ready to resume the uptrend from this week’s retracement. Im long since yesterday.

Possible Bearish Flag? From the daily, we’ve formed a couple of bearish doji’s. Tomorrow being a Friday with a decent amount of banks closed, I might call it a week. We’re down on the week so far but as of these past couple days, we’re in this uptrend. Breaking the trend to the upside would be extremely bullish, so a bearish break seems likely. Either way, come Monday hopefully it would have played itself out allowing me to follow whichever direction SM took it.


Hi Upcomer, sorry to bother (and to interrupt the thread), I’ve been studying Pete’s material for a while and trade his older scalping system. Just wondering, where the thick moving average you’ve got plotted is from? Would you mind posting the indi please? I’ve had a browse through old forum posts and haven’t found it.

For no other reason than I like the look of it! Cheers, Andrew

N/U long setup from Thursday moving along.

Hi everyone I am a devoted petefader trader, its my first post. Still trading small. But I thought I would post my usd/cad long entry. sorry about the template (spaghetti and linguine),


I actually obtained that MA from Pete’s template. I’m not sure where or when he posted it however.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1391891&d=1395624402

Thanks for that, I’ve seen it on Pete’s 5m TF charts for a while and was sure he’d have posted a template w/ indis, but couldn’t find it, thanks very much. The only ‘addition’ I’ve made to Pete’s templates myself, is this news indi which extracts from forex factory, I’ve found it quite handy to have the news on the chart direct.

NewsCal-v107.ex4 - MT4 News Calendar Indicator @ Forex Factory

Hey Pete. I’ve been applying Wyckoff’s methodology into my strategy as much as I can, and you teach it the best with VSA that I’ve seen. I believe I can accurately find Markup and Markdown phases with ease, as I look for New Highs/New Lows, strong rallies in both directions etc.
However, I can’t seem to accurately find accumulation/distribution phases with the same ease. If prices are trying to break to new highs or lows but fail, is that regarded as accumulation/distribution?

Hi Upcomerfx,
Accumulation/distribution is identified in a trading range in simple terms by first defining the trading range and seeing what happens at the top and bottom of that range. Keep in mind when you analyse the range “What is SM doing here” and it will become easier.
In an accumulation phase, SM is buying the lows and retreating alltogether at the highs of the range. The result, you will see extra volume at the lows as SM buys it up, and low volume at the highs, where SM waits to see if there is other sell pressure still. Each time there is sell pressure without SM, the price will drop on low volume until the bottom of the range is hit, and SM goes into a buying mode again.

Now, when you see a breakout of that range, Markup may be about to occur. What happens? The price breaks through and tests the top of the trading range. If sellers have been exhausted, it wont go back in and stay in the range (false breakout), but it what happens is SM will do a sneaky trick by selling to the top of the range (sacraficing a small part of their overall large position) and withdraw from the market to see what the rest of the sellers may do. If exhausted, there will be no sellers, and that low volume down move will be replaced by an up move, creating the No Supply candle. That is the signal that we are about to hit markup and for us to long on our trade. S/L can be very subjective, but I have placed it below the previous low with another 5 pips on it, then let the trade go.

That’s accumulation in a nutshell. Distribution is the same but opposite. Let me know if you still need an explanation for that one.

A fantastic, but slightly difficult read is hankpruden.com have a read of it a few times over a few days and it will sink in. A lighbulb moment is there waiting for you.

Tassie :smiley:

Thanks for quick reply Tassie.
Trading Range. I don’t know how I forgot about something so common in trading, but that’s what I wasn’t looking for in my charts when analyzing the markets. I trade like Pete, mainly reading the storyline off of the 1HR. I’ve seen days where price is just stagnant for 24 hours. I felt like those types of days were essentially a standoff between bulls and bears. But you’re suggesting those tight ranges could actually be SM positioning to either the long or short side. OK, makes a lot of sense. I’ll be sure to backtest and forward test to get a better understanding.

Just one other thing to bear in mind at the moment. The movement in that pairs at the moment is the lowest in years.

The EUR/USD moved just 26 pips in the entire day, the EUR/JPY just 34 pips, the USD/JPY just 23 pips, the USD/CHF just 22 pips! This was probably caused by a combination of the European public holidays plus the anticipated US news later today. Regardless of the reason, it creates very difficult trading conditions.

One example of what I am talking about with that and volume. have a look at the attached chart and how much the volume had dropped since 2011. This makes it harder to trade at the moment. Considering Forex is a $4 Trillion market each day, a lot of money has moved out of late, possibly back into stocks after the GFC had settled somewhat. I am looking forward to normality resuming some time soon.
The below is a day chart back to 2011 with total tick volume at the bottom. notice how much it has dropped off. I have put a red horizontal line across the current average


Tassie, I’ve seen this a lot in regards to FX, the drop in activity.
Do you see activity returning to those levels again? And if so, why?
What would cause that amount of money to shift from one market to the next?

An article from Babypips a few years ago about the start of the drop off in volume, so it is nothing new. Seems like ti is somehow related to central bank intervention. I have never heard of another time where the banks have moved whatever they had to in order to keep their own currencies where they want it. Printing money like there is no tomorrow for some, and buying up for others, so banks themselves have not been the big players in the markets, the countries decisions have. That would mean the free market as such is directed by monetary policy of countries rather than the traditional players. Here is the babypips article Is Low Trading Volume the New Norm for Forex Trading? | Forex Blog: Espipionage

Another good article Forex Trading Volume Drops for First Time Since 2009 - WSJ.com

I may be speaking out of my rear end, but then again, I am a trained electrician, not economist, so take my thoughts as just that. Have a read of the articles and see what you opinion may be :slight_smile:

Me, I just hope we can soon get back to the $4 trillion a day fx market we enjoyed not that long ago.