Thoughts on tonight’s market? For me it was fairly lacklustre…though, there is medium news in half an hour, followed by 1pm news. I personally have not seen anything worthy.
Lemme know, guys!
- Romancandles.
Hello, I just finished reading the old thread - all 3451 posts. I had started reading it a couple of years ago and got through roughly the first 1300 posts. At that time I saved many of the images and I’m glad I did because this time through there were many broken links. I wish I had the images from about post 1300 on by DodgeV83, NeroKoso, and PurplePatchFX because their analysis and trading style fits my style of trading - aggressive when I need to be yet at other times trading with the trend when it is strong. I’ve also read the first 500 posts from this thread and will continue to read the remaining posts as time permits. I’ve also watched several videos - “The Truth Behind Price Movement 1, 2 & 3”, the ND/NS video, and the video explaining the push through and push through test entry. Anyway, I’ve learned quite a lot from this and I want to thank Pete and the other contibutors for that. I primarily trade equities but hope to start trading FX in the near future. If anyone knows how I can obtain the images from the broken links I would appreciate your input.
Regards
In addition to what I wrote in my previous post, I also follow the currency futures markets; in particular the euro, aud, and gbp. I’ve noticed a tight correspondence in price and volume between these currency futures markets and the eu, au, and gu fx pairs as I’ve compared the price and volume in recent 60 min and 5 min charts posted here to the appropriate currency futures market. So, when I’m allowed to post a chart I’ll do so.
Regards
Morning Folks, hope everyone had a good weekend!
Quick Note -> This post has some detail/extra-cirricular stuff 
If you’re new to this forum or method, head to post #1, read it all & trade This post isn’t essential to this method. Cheers.
Here’s a description of the AUD short I’ve taken this morning, also taken the USDCAD. I’ll do my best to mark-up according to this thread, but also a few other things I look at.
Here’s a look at the AUDUSD daily chart, noting key S&R levels but also candle patterns. I dismissed these (a while ago) thinking they were “too” elementary & basic! It’s not a case of saying “hanging man black swan!” but kind of looking into what each means wrt price during that day. As with this forum’s method, you can see the daily is very “selling wicky” for use of a better technical term, then we get 2 doji like candles. I’ve found this to be distribution (on a siwng high) or accumulation (on a swing low) if they form at S&R. When daily candles get doji like, the 1h chart normally reveals a bit of wyckoff action.
Something else I look at on the weekend is the CTFC/CoT report. It’s nothing too confusing, but can give a clue as to the major pre-position or the following week. Worth researching yourself, but don’t go too deep, it’s pretty simple.
Oanda compiles the stats & graphs here -> Forex COT | Commitments of Traders Report | COT FX | OANDA fxTrade I look across the board at the majors, this week the AUD was a standout.
Please note ->This forum doesn’t discuss using the CoT report for a bias, it’s not essential to Pete’s method.
Last week the AUDUSD was net short -24k non-commercial positions, this week it’s -40k, 65% is a significant swing over the life I’ve been checking this report & comparing that result with market moves.
Lastly, the USDx or DXY. This is a composite of the currency pairs to show you the “USD”. ie: we look at G/U and E/U etc knowing that the USD is consistent across all pairs, but what about the USD itself. The USDx gives you that overview. Some brokers offer it as a pair itself.
This image below on the USDx shows (me) that we’ve still got room for the dollar to go higher before fake breaking resistance above.
Then lastly (phew!) the 1h chart itself… break of structure, then on Friday we “didn’t” have the highest volume/buying at the low, but got it on the retrace to fib (selling).
And now to watch this sucker drop! Will also add that you can do a study of the time of day for the daily high and low for each currency pair, as an example AUD over the last 5 years is heavily biased toward forming it’s daily high or low within the first 2 hours of Asia or NY open.
Hello Pete. Lets say there is a valid setup on the 1H time-frame and now all you need is a NS/ND on the 5M. Is there like a time period until you would stop looking for the NS/ND? Or would the setup be valid even 3 hours later if you are still watching the screens provided the price havent taken off in any direction yet?
There is not a specific time limit however if you are waiting a while for entry you are likely to get additional information which can confirm the likely hood of the setup eventually playing out, or even cancel the setup if things go wrong. As long as you are staying on top of what the charts say before entering, it’s fine. Also note, I don’t just take a ns/nd off the 5 min based on the 1hr, the small TFs give good detailed info leading to potential entry.
eu looking good to the short side, asian stops poped lets see :53:
Break below 1.047 will resume major downtrend;)We will see…
250 pips away i dont think i want to wait that long
Took a couple losses since last week but nailed the A/U, G/U long Thurs to make it back. Timing has been a bitc#. SM buying, waiting, buying waiting since last week…finally going for the kill. Not sure why shorts were talked about. Have to say that would have been incorrect.
A/U short to demand on the daily, long all week (y)
The hourly’s been a bit off kilter this week, cracking EU long yesterday.
This might sound really… basic? (feels like I’ve been charting in crayon this week) but the Daily TF has been a super easy read wrt supply/demand & candle patterns.
I was told tick volume supplied by broker can be manipulated?
I rely on volume to determine if an engulfing candlestick is a fluke and divergence doesn’t get its badge until price actually breaks support / resistance.
So can tick volume using mt4 be reliable source of supply and demand?
Looks like the market is cleaned up again Pete, took the long on EU yesterday after class it was a killer, last piece still running up almost 180 pips, all pairs are going up without sellers showing up and its a very healthy uptrend so far, party time!
Usual profit taking stuff during NY, very very clear,EU looks like to be the strongest one, SM took some profit at high price, dumping their positions, and buy back 100 pips lower, those bastaards lol
Hey all, I’m having trouble analysing volume. I know that low volume at an area of resistance is likely an indication that resistance will be broken, and that volume spikes at resistance show the opposite etc
But for example things like:
A widespread upbar closing 3/4 the way up on high volume. Part of me thinks, there has been a rejection of price at the high and volume is high so this is a bearish signal. I’m usually wrong about this.
When price dips down to test a previous area of resistance after a push through and high volume appears, I think well high volume has appeared at a previous area of resistance turned support, this is a bullish signal and often I’m wrong. Generally also I’m struggling to find NS and ND on the 5min timeframe, it seems to me that these tests for supply and demand often last for 1-3 minutes and not five, so instead of a nice, low volume down bar… I’m greeted with a medium volume bar closing in it’s middle or something. Do you guys use M1 much? I saw Gavin Holmes using M1 for NS/ND recently.
Anyway, I know the obvious answer is more experience, I’m already getting plenty of screentime and watched most of Pete’s freestuff including the new 3.5 hour video (twice), but if anyone could provide some additional advice or resources to help me learn how to analyse volume / EvR / accumulation vs distribution faster, I’d be very appreciative. Even more so than I already am for this resource and Pete’s free stuff.
Cheers all!
i think this is what your talking about, when i posted it was before the move down, didnt last forever but good for 40-50 pips, should have followed it up with a long, swinging with the big d*cks
He said that because we are clearly in a mark up after stopping volume last Friday. Fake break Monday, followed by higher highs and higher lows. If you were shorting at this point you would be with the herd/countertrend trade. You should’ve been looking for the pull backs to sensible areas and entered long. Even by you saying, “should have followed it up with a long” is herd mentality. Trend is your friend, as Pete always says or better yet Phase is your friend.
Cheers.
(I’m back BTW)
so shorting here is with the herd and going long at a 50% fib is the herd, made an easy 40-45 pips
to me trend is your friend sounds like the herd,
i trade my edge when i see it and volume is just part of it, in a range i take profits, you think fridays stopping volume got us out of the range? i also shorted at 1.0830 is that herd?
jeers
I considered the volume on Friday 4/10 at 12Z as stopping volume, herd continues to sell into Monday 4/13 at 12Z we are put into an “accumulation” range, with the higher low on 4/14 at 06Z and increasing volume confirmed then the higher high at 14Z, I’m thinking of getting in long on a 50-61.8 pull back.
That’s great you got a short in at 1.0830, but I don’t see how that used any of Pete’s entry methods.
I got in long after the highest volume of the day after the 12Z candle closed and a push through supply at 1.0767, not a good idea to enter a trade so late on a Friday, but after the week it’s been, I figure why the hell not.
It does appear that smart money is positioning short this week.
(I’ll post some charts when I get around to it, just not on the right computer for it now and I don’t know what people are using to host there images nowadays.)