done with the profile pic… call me supper-man:54:
Not me…dealing with some things at the moment so I missed it.
Demand had started to show up, and that low is actually a test of a lower TL on bigger TFs. That’s why I passed on the NS entry about an hour before that…figured it would test down there. Anyway, nice job. Activity tends to slow down after 16 gmt so…well I won’t tell you how to manage it but, I would take some profit while it’s there and not let it run back on you into draw down.
Should mention…from a 1hr view, wide spread down candle with volume higher than we’ve seen for days, closing off the low. Next candle made no progress below it, then next candle closed bullish…stopping volume confirmed, longs are on.
Nah, normally that wouldn’t worry me too much. It’s relatively small, and consider the fact that demand showed up over a longer period…sorta a small accumulation, and that background should bring it through there.
The only thing “Bad” about this trade is the time of day, activity dies out…additional risk.
Thx mate, I pay a lot to learn this 
watching… will see if volume will jump around 1.3375 (fibo 50) in TF 5m…
This time of the day, you should go and have a drink 
Just thought I would throw this out there…
Following ? Luiz commenting on my volume data looking funny I downloaded the recommended IBFX demo… see attached.
And you were right… LOADS better definition on the volumes.
Then I did a little more reading about volume, people talking about the variances between brokers and using tick data as a proxy… then I had a thought… (dangerous I know). A while ago I signed up with GKFX. GKFX is a spread betting company which allows you to spread bet on price movements in the Forex… See below…
Now this volume data looks to be even more defined. Where is it coming from - is this still tick data??? Is it futures data… lol … the live chat people did not know - I am waiting on an answer from their support.
GKFX is regulated by the FSA. They also allow me to hold my base currency in GBP (which I like).
AND - for any UK guys and gals reading this all profits are entirely tax free as spread betting is well “gambling” according to HMRC… as opposed to forex - which is classed as a calculated risk - and profits over ? £10500 from memory are taxable.
Well … thats all from me atm. Just wondered if anyone had any thouughts on this… I will keep you posted about any replies I get from GKFX who used to be known as SmartLiveMarkets.
Froggy.
OK reply came quicker than I thought
"Thank you for your email.
The volume represents the number of tick updates in the relevant time period.
Kind Regards
GKFX"
Guess that settles it
Still pretty interesting concept though
…and so it did. Good call.
The trade turned out nicely. (posted by Samiam129, thanks) VSA showed us the bottom of a 170 pip drop, and gave an immediate entry there…yeeup, gotta love it.
What entry are we talking about? I can see the spike into fibo50, but no entry there for me 
I was referring to the long entry posted just before that, 50 fib being a typical target.
Hi Pete, I have a question about what happens to the price at night (activity outside London/NY session).
-
Earlier in this thread you said that sometimes when SM is bearish they like to move price up at night to get a better price for a markdown during the day.
-
In the early part of the 1500pips thread I’ve seen some of your charts where you were comparing volume peaks and valleys on a 1h chart which of course correspond to daytime and nighttime. I thought that this was very strange, because obviously we can’t drectly compare volume of day and night. But if we take point 1) into account then it would make sense to put some significance on movement at night.
So my question is whether it is valid to combine the two points and read price and volume movement at night like we would treat it at day, comparing night’s vol/price to day’s vol/price? For example if we are in distribution that then at night price climbs back to the top at low volume and then we have high volume selling during the day. Or, during a week-long uptrend, price falls at night and shoots up at day. Is sometihng like that a strategy that SM applies consistently/predictably?
I guess your asking if considering those points, it’s ok to trade off hours. Well, the first point about SM moving price opposite of the phase. It’s not something I would look to trade. hmm, it’s hard to put into words.
There is no real plan from smart money…no urgency to move price, it’s just something that tends to happen by default. Consider that there is also profit taking on the days move to cause that reversal. If you really wanted to trade with SM, you wouldn’t be entering then. SM does not have your back on this trade so to speak.
As far as considering off hours volume valid…sure in the context of what we know they are doing (some profit taking some repositioning) but consider the volume will always be lower. You can use it to your advantage when going into the next trading day by keeping up with SMs actions.
Another point is Aisa session. Those couple hours when volume picks up…then dies again before London. You’ll see that go either way…not predictably with or against the phase, although it tends to do one or the other for consecutive days…not very dependable. With that session open you can consider there is more “real” trading going on, and could take a sound VSA entry. But you run into that dead period before London which again…could go either way.
Hope that helps, and answers your question.
Thanks you, that clears it up.
I wasn’t really thinking of trading 1h charts or Asia session. My question was more about whether we can use off-hours’ movement to help us determine the phase, for example whether we are in distribution or reaccumulation, by comparing 1h’s day-night volume and price peaks and valleys. Sort of like looking at the 1h like we do at 5m, but I think we can’t without mentally adjusting for inevitable day-night vol fluctuations, because the reasons for 5m vol fluctuations are completely different than on 1h. 5m vol changes due to genuine activity which correlates to specific price levels, but 1h vol fluctuates regardless of price levels. So in reality SM has the same agenda day and night, it’s not like they have a different agenda specifically for off-hours.
Sure, you can use it to help determine the phase, keeping in mind SM is acting as I described. Maybe you should run though some history on the 1 hr and apply analysis…see what you get. Go back far into history as well to see that it goes through changes or cycles over time. In short, yes. You can use that time to analyze the chart considering the way SM operates at that time.
One thing maybe to keep in mind, is my understanding of what SM actually does in the “off” hours.
I am not saying the below is correct, but it is my current understanding - I am happy for anyone to correct me.
“off hours” offers much less liquidity. Less liquidity means it will be easier to manipulate the price. If there are less buyers/sellers, it will take less money to move price.
SM “looks” into the “off hours” and decides to manipulate the price, for example, they want to make the price go up. They buy into small liquidity, which means nowhere near as much money is required to make price increase. They do this so then at the start of the “normal” sessions, the herd will look into the previous past and get excited about the rally and buy to join it.
SM will obviously see and control this. Maybe selling into it, but maybe not equalling the selling, trapping a few more buyers and making price more attractive to them. Then, they will start to equal and outstrip the buyers with their selling, all the while with liquidity increasing - meaning more selling will be required to lower price that earlier when they were buying up.
The herd ends up seeing the price start to reverse and jump on the bandwagon after a while, and the pattern we have been learning starts to repeat itself, with the SM driving price, the Herd losing their trades, and us acting as sucker fish - following the SM as they do their thing 
