Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

Wow, that is awesome man! You did it perfectly. And I’m glad to hear the new video helped you. The idea just popped into my head to draw and talk…with no plan. Maybe I will make more to show different scenarios as well. I watched it again today (with other things on my mind) and wow, this guy seems to know what he’s talking about lol. But, I clear my throat a lot…it’s winter time and I’m sitting next to the heater with nasal drip…eew, sorry lol. Next time I’ll pop a lozenge first lol.

LOL! I just realized that this appeared on the 5min chart, 7 hours after I made that vid…


Hello petefader, I started following initially your MadScalper and now VSA. I watched many videos from Tom Williams & Co. explaining this stuff and I’m very very new to it. I understand a lot of concepts but it’s taking me time to spot these principles on the chart (especially because of different time frames). I usually trade on 5 min charts though. I have so far only made 1 trade with this system. Today, a nice $385 profit on my demo account trading AUD/USD. Any tips on spotting the principles? Also, how do you set up your profits/stops?
Thanks for your help,
Dmitri

P.S. I love VSA because I actually understand why it works.

I was thinking about your video and how smart money looks for better and better prices to unload their positions, and how they manipulate the supply and demand that is in the market at that time. My problem with exits got me thinking if there was something to tip us off on what kind of move may be coming.

The way it usually works is we have a buying climax, and then we wait for price to return to that area on a test. Have you, or anyone else, noticed if the place where the test occurs has any effect on the downmove that follows? Like in the chart I posted yesterday (p.64) there was enough demand still in the market to push price above the climax before we got the test. The resulting move was about 20 pips. In the chart you posted above on this page the test happened a little below the climax, meaning the demand wasn’t as strong, and the resulting move was around 80 pips.(bad example with that news event to the right of your chart)

Maybe this is overthought and worthy of one of those black and white pics lol. Might be too simplistic as well with all the things that can effect the markets. But if they back off and price keeps rising, showing there is still demand, that could be an indication that there are lots of people on the sidelines waiting on a dip before they buy. And smart money, being smart, won’t try to push down through that demand, but will find a way to work with it.

Another thing I have been wondering about is the volume on a confirming bar. Say you have a down bar on high volume that you think may contain buying, on the following bar you are looking for confirmation. Does the volume on the confirming bar effect how you view the buying? Do you treat it like any other up bar, high and low volume being weak, and medium volume being bullish?

I went to edit my post above and it mangled the text. Didnt wanna go through it all and fix it.

I was just gonna say I looked back over the charts for a ways to see if my theory looked right…and ill just say…meh. Doesnt look like anything you can rely on at all. Either way you are gonna be analyzing as things unfold so even if it did work that way it wouldnt help much.

Have you ever forgot to cancel pending order just to find your account +5% on the next morning?

I’m terrified I could have LOST 5% and I almost feel bad for the money I didn’t deserve. But hey… what the heck… :54:

So far nice short entry at 8:15 GMT at the break of the low of the ND. +16pips

EDIT: I closed half for +17 pips, due to the high volume buying coming in. Locked BE. I’m not entirely sure if this entry was correct or not, so please be aware of me being a noob. :20:

EDIT: Closed the rest at 1.3393…

Nice, yes it’s correct. I see you didn’t wait for the close to confirm, and entered just below the no demand. That’s valid but a but more risky. 2 candles later however, it did give another ND with a close below. That’s where I would have gone in had I not been SLEEPING! (uggh)

You got that right. Sometimes I get a little impatient. I could have a better entry if I waited for the next ND. Maybe I could have scale in a little bit on the second ND, huh? Well… still learning :).

And don’t worry. One can’t be up 24/7 watching the charts.

Sure, you have the option to scale in, but not to make up for a lack of patience. :wink: Make the chart your reason for doing anything. If I go in before the close it’s because it’s a really nice looking setup etc.

Testing that resistance level at 3.441 Now. Looks like it might hold and be a good short opportunity!

ok guys I wasn’t going to say anything but…

I knew these news releases were going to bring price up and I caught a 50 pip move. (1.3387 at 12:40 gmt)
When you guys have been trading VSA a few years, maybe you want to think about news releases being your friend…on very rare occasions lol.

I saw a plot twist before news. As I’ve been saying short, short, short…but at the 1hr 61.8 retrace a heck of a lot of buying showed up pre news. I just knew what SM was up to. So, look forward to the time when SM speaks to you in that way, but for now, play it safe.

ps. I don’t remember the last time I traded a news move…looooong time.

pps. I’m not cherry picking the trades I tell you guys about. This was my only trade today, and I haven’t taken a loss in a while. I trade with people that post here for them to learn, so they would call me out lol.

Your thinking was sound, but I would let this stuff settle for a bit…pretty wild.

Didn’t see your post before I went in quick and took it. The volume spike right at resistance made it irresistible! Scaled in, got the first one out at +30, and the second out at +60!

Done for the day with that one.

wow, it didn’t give me a ND :expressionless: Done for the day with no trade though. Decent buyer protecting the level, we’ll see how priceaction plays out.

Doesn’t matter Luiz. There is absolutely no shame in closing out the day without a trade. Much worse if you take an entry outside your own rules and lose because of it. I haven’t made a trade this week yet. missed a few beautiful setups as I was at work etc when they came in. Maybe next week will be better.
btw - we may be at a double bottom here on the EU. Climactic vol on 1hr. May not be far off a long entry. Bed time for me anyway.

Back tomorrow :slight_smile:

I think we all know you are not cherry picking. I actually had similar thoughts. I knew the whole sentiments today was to push through support and go lower and lower. When the news hit and the price went up I knew this was definitely not a healthy up move. But unfortunately, it didn’t give me any confirmation (ND), so I rather stayed out, being unexperienced with this. :slight_smile: Thx for the heads up tho. And congratulations on those 50 pips.

PS: It was actually a very beautiful trade setup. When I look at the last high volume up bar… The volume is huge. It’s a true buying CLIMAX. :32: … I think one could base a whole strategy around those big news - moves… I need more practice tho.

was away when that shot opportunuty showed up:31:. agree with sagi on that climax. my very first time here. been reading your posts pete. thanks for sharing your thoughts…

this is my MT4 in 5m TF. the CCI (20) also showed bearish divergence…


Today is sorta my friday since I make fridays optional. So in review (off the top of my head) there were at least 2 text book setups around London open this week, which I missed due to my trading hours. I had 2 wins on aggressive setups that I took on smaller risk.

Strange request but…can you guys use an avatar (profile pic)? Some names are similar, and some downright off the wall and hard to remember lol, so it helps me know who’s who much easier.