Supply/Demand, VSA, Wyckoff with Petefader

Very nice :slight_smile:

Price is up there playing again but not on significant volume yet. It would be cool if we could get another short up here :slight_smile:

stopping volume finally arrived ā€¦


Yes, thatā€™s about it, and it looks like such on the 1HR too, so shorts is probably best now.

All quiet today, anyone got a short off one of those no demands on the 5m around the 1.3100 mark?

Yes picked that one up.

Currently in long after that double bottom. Not working out though, it seems.

Edit: Now Itā€™s a triple bottom, and itā€™s just gotta be a problem of time of day.

This support point at 1.3032 Has held three times now on high volumes. Iā€™m feeling very confident in the trade, but still using an ā€œexploratory betā€ as Livermore would say.

Hey PPFX and Team,
Just responding to the question of the short. I was looking for a long setup with a NS bar around the 1.3100 mark. I ended up making a few pips before the trade went against me (scaled out and locked BE), but clearly my analysis is flawed. With the strength in the back ground on the 1 hr I was looking for an area to get in long, thinking that the move down was a retrace and would move higher on the day.

Would love some expert advise on how what I missed and why I was thinking like the herd?

Still to new to post my chart with my analysis.

Hello Jonsie!
Yesterday was full of weakness and with the huge volume into the bigger 50 Fib on the 1 HR today I would say thereā€™s still weakness. Even though weā€™ve seen that thereā€™s been buying into the downmove. I personally wouldnā€™t have bought into what you did, because of the weakness in the background. Make yourself a few posts somewhere and get back with a chart on the matter! :slight_smile:

Youā€™re just overtrading, keep calm, those high volume reversals you need to be careful with, and you were trading against the 1HR trend, there was stopping volume on the long side to go short, but none indicating for you to go long, and there was no No Supply for a long entry at the point I think you entered.

Stick with the plan, you are so close.

Hey, I got a long entry earlier on, but soon as I saw a reversal sign I was out for a tiny loss, and I tell you it can be one of the hardest things to do, come out of a trade that you know will loose, but donā€™t worry about that, you can still make good profits even though you get a few of them, in time, youā€™ll be able to ditch those losses too.

Donā€™t know about expert! but hereā€™s my advice, stick to the plan, but also put up a 15m chart with my indicator on it, my current view is that understanding how to read the 5m is best, but the 15m will filter out a lot of the NS and NDs in the wrong places for you.

Also My current observation shows that a an ND/NS on the 5m and 15m at around the same time is one heck of a strong signal.

One thing I think weā€™re missing on this strategy now is just the basic framework, which is:- (and correct me if Iā€™m wrong)

  1. look for Stopping Volume on 1Hr to gauge trend (must be high volume on small spread, not just high volume)
  2. Enter on ND/NS on 5min chart.

See, simple as only 2 steps to it, well no, but you must follow those basic rules to start with.

  1. Stay out of the market when you canā€™t figure it out!

Iā€™ve also stopping volume indications here on m5, but imho the demand zone is a little below. So thatā€™s probably the reason it doesnā€™t lift off. Itā€™s just an intermediate buy/sell zone and will imho go further down before a lift off. We also had s1 today lower. Selling pressure seems to be weak and thatā€™s imho the reason it wonā€™t go down to the major buy zone quick and no up move til the buy orders were triggered from there.

Just an opinion, tho. :slight_smile:

Totally dead in here today, is everybody on christmas vaccation? :stuck_out_tongue:

We had a potential setup earlier today with high Vol into the 50 Fib but no bearish close on that before price dropped very fast! So couldnā€™t really find a good entry point.

Maybe the US session will give us something better!

Hi PeteFader & co,
been trading fx for about a month now,down about 11.5% ouch,thought i could trade fx my own way, but reality slapped me and i realised i need Help.I got stopped out on my last short trade today.Something terribly wrong with my analyst.No more trading for me until i get over this hurdle,will post charts with my analyst asap.all comments greatly appreciated.
thanks.

Yep, Iā€™m not really trading until Janā€¦ I see, the 1hr closed as a slightly bullish doji, I know you like to wait for that to be safeā€¦I usually do too, butā€¦here was the setup if one hadnā€™t waited and gone more aggressiveā€¦just to show.


Hey Goso54. You live close to me - well closer than anyone else on Babypips. Iā€™m near Cadburyā€™s.
I do hope your 11.5% is on a demo acct with only a months trading. I have been ā€œintoā€ trading for a year and a half now - still learning a lot from many kind members here in this thread. Hopefully youā€™re posting here as you want to learn Petefaders method, which does work, but discipline and good money management are also crucial for this.
Please put in your chart. People will offer their suggestions, but be aware that the normal trading has finished as such and many people out there in the big world would be closing their trades out for the year, ready to come back in the new year.
Iā€™d suggest to do what i am going to do (and many others on babypips). Take the next two weeks off and study hard for the new year. Watch Petefaders videos a few times over. Have a read of ā€œMaster the Marketsā€ which is freely available on the net, otherwise contact me and Iā€™ll get it to ya another way.

Trading is a very interesting and exciting prospect (I think it is), and I can fully see myself trading full time in a years time. Work hard on it, the benefits will be worth it.

The next trading period through to April/May have in the past been very good, so I am excited to see my development there, as well as everyone elses :slight_smile:

I missed a few nice shorts today as I am done for the year, but have still been watching. AU and EU have put in some nice signals. The EU currently on a lower trand line after the last 4 hours of drops, so am fully expecting it to come up again in the next few hours as per the trend line. Marked it as a start on 14 Dec and still holding that line.

Good to hear from another new guy in here, and letā€™s hope you stick around, learn heaps and do well out of it all.

Merry Christmas everyone :slight_smile:

Tassie :59:


Hi Goso, like you saidā€¦no more live trading until you know what youā€™re doing obviously. 11% is no noobie horror story lol. Youā€™ll make it back. Watch the vids! :slight_smile:

Hi Fellaā€™s,

TassieFx
Gee, weā€™re just about neighbours.Thanks for the helpfull advice,I will study and learn and I will beat this beast.Its Good to see that you are doing so well .I definitely plan to stick around and make the most out of this resource.will post charts once I figure out how to,found the web site posted by SagiCZ and Iā€™m working through how to send pics.
petefader,
thanks for the words of encouragement,watching,reading,learning.

Wishing everyone good health and happiness for 2012

Merry Christmas to all of you! :slight_smile:

Merry Christmas folksā€¦ have a very profitable 2012.

:57:

Drink and be merry. (Iā€™m making up for not drinking much all year) :slight_smile:

Hello guys I am new here! but truely wants to use VSA and fully understand it!

So what is the next week direction? My opinion is ā€œGoing Northā€ at least to 1.3250 (EURUSD)