This is far from a proper short setup, at least the way we trade here. You said to me in an earlier post “Your the reason I now trade VSA”, but you’re not trading the way I trade. You have total VSA overload. If you are consisently profitable and want to make calls, then you should start your own thread with your method and my blessings. If you want to continue here and learn the profitable method we are trading, watch the videos again, specifically the ND/NS video. Remove all the junk from your chart, mark the bars you are referring to, and most importantly follow the method we are trading. Just a little tough love my friend. Thanks.
It wasn’t push through supply. It was a run of the mill Sign of Strength + No Supply Entry. The H1 at 0700Z showed a “spring” confirmed again at 0800Z (on the 5m). Just waited for a No Supply to show up to enter. On top of all that we have yet to see any real stopping volume (buy climax) of the up trend. Enough evidence lined up.
No offence intended. Will Do.
Mike
100 percent on the money. Applying the principles and some common sense. I will only say, the 1hr, 7:00 GMT candle you are calling a spring, I call a shakeout. I know…I say tomOto, you sat tomAto, the name doesn’t matter in the end. I believe I’m correct by most Wycoff standards for a spring, and VSA standards on a shakeout…which is actually a lose term that I personally narrow down.
The difference is, rather than pop down to create a quick new low for the day and bounce back, it looks more similar to how I define a shakeout…which is, once demand starts playing out in price…say pushing through supply, THEN you get that big pin on high volume when it pops back into the old accumulation zone…and then right back up again as a reaction.
They both show that there is overwhelming demand is still the point.
I’ve been reading up on VSA quite a bit, but there’s one thing that kind of worries me. If VSA is such solid system then why did Tom Williams and company create a business that’s constantly trying to sell their merchandise. The classes, the market analyzing software, and their books are pretty damn expensive. Wouldn’t all that be a waste of time when they could be trading making much more money.
Although it does make me a little more comfortable that Pete doesn’t use any of that pricey software.
I’m not bashing VSA, I’m going to keep investing time into it as it seems like one of the smarter approaches. I’m new to forex, so I just wanted to hear what anyone else has to say about those guys before I really invest a lot more time into VSA.
You are right that it is pricey software. I know, I own it. It was primarilly made for stocks and futures, but does work in forex. That said, Petes way of trading means you don’t need the software. I’m not sure if Pete would agree with me, but I did like the book trading in the shadow of the smart money. By following this thread, I’m sure you will become a better trader. All the best,
Mike
Because just like you and me, he wanted to make money. How do you make money in the business? People want the easy way, the quick way, the painless way. They don’t want put the time and effort required, nor do they have the mindset and individuality to just do it on their own. So people pay thousands of dollars to help ease their mind by putting the onus on somebody else. Just like any service/instruction or whatever, that’s what people that make money do. I see it in the golf industry just as I see it here. I’ve looked into tons of methods and strategies, and as a result of one bad day of trading I realized there’s something more to indicators and fundamentals/news. Pete’s method is pretty solid and at the same time pretty simple. It requires patience though, but what I care about more than being able to trade all the time is reliability and reading the market by far yields more reliability than I have ever seen.
I’ve read the answers, and none of them satisfy me.
Why don’t you send him an e-mail, ask him and share his answer.
( Gavin Holmes writes in the book - Trading in the Shadows of the Smart Money - that Tom Williams was able to retire at 40, a rich man )
Look guys we’ve had this kind of discussion many times before, could we please stick to the task in hand and just get on with using it to make money, do you seriously think that so many of us would be wasting our time for so long, on something that doesn’t work?
Please don’t answer, it was a rhetorical question, so shall we just get on with today’s trading…
Well it’s definitely long trades we are after, could push through the resistance at 1.3050 area.
Not sure if longs are the order of the day:
We’re entering an established resistance zone
However, there is no stopping volume up top…yet.
On the other hand, other pairs highly correlated with the EUR/USD clearly show stopping volume off yesterday’s high:
Will wait and see.
Yes, but I’d bet it has stopped and has retraced and it’s ready to go again, but like you say, wait and see, thing is it’s not too rare to be looking for longs then all of a sudden a good short setup stares right back at you!
hi guys, i’m sort of new to this…i was wondering if someone could correct me if i labeled the phases wrongly here on the EU 1H chart…i’m thinking EU is going through distribution right now…thanks!
It’s starting to look like distribution. High volumes at the top of the channel, low volumes at the bottom, whipsawing, etc. Thnking I’ll stay away from trading today until there’s an obvious imbalance of supply over demand.
Umm, this is how I read it, the 2 High Volume bars in the middle of the chart with the green line highlighting it, is High Volume into lows, I don’t really see any volume spikes into highs, so I wouldn’t like to call it distribution, and it’s rejecting the 2990 level on low volume testing, so I’m long!
PPF,
Don’t get me wrong. There is demand coming in at the bottom of the range and buying in the down candles. But, the characteristics seem to point towards distribution (more square, high volume at peaks, low volumes in the valleys). I’m guessing it’ll probably range here for a bit, just seems like there’s a lot of supply around that 1.3070 area. I just don’t see a clear imbalance yet between S & D. Besides that candle at 9:00 on the H1 really prevents me from entering a long at this point.
1hr shows high vol upthrust, 5min shows highest volume is on wide spread up candles with bearish reaction. Buy climax and distribution by definition.
Both traderjoo and ppf are great at describing this strategy. The fact that using similar analysis, there is opposed short/long view might be that there is no finite unbalance in supply/demand yet. My newbie opinion: there has been low volumes lows and high volumes lows overnight. The highs yesterday were not achieved on high volume, whereas the highs today did have high volume followed by the bounce back into the range…
I recommend unbiased waiting for a more clear unbalance.
Ok, it’s better to trade when there is clearer imbalance, like Pete says, when the fight is over, I just reckon I’m on the right side of this time, lots and lots of support, it could be broken to catch some longs like mine, but…, could well be just about to go actually!!!
As always it’s an ever evolving story.
Long or Short?
Only one way to find out
yep I see, support is dying, I’m out.